Monday, February 29, 2016

Leap Day Bracket, Conference Tournaments Begin Tuesday

Happy February 29th, everyone, and happy birthday to those who actually get to celebrate their birthday on the actual date today, instead of either February 28th or March 1.

Speaking of which, March 1 is tomorrow, which means March Madness is almost here. Just 13 days until the official bracket is released. To start getting you ready, conference tournament action begins tomorrow in the Atlantic Sun and the Patriot League.

Depending on how things outside of here shake out, this will be my last week of two updates. Next week, per tradition (again, depending on other events), I will post every day as tournament action rolls along, updating the bracket as more champions are crowned and automatic bids are filled. In fact, the first tournament bid will be handed out on Saturday in the Ohio Valley.

So with that in mind, let's recap some of the action from the weekend. The big change at the top is Virginia moving back onto the top line after their win over North Carolina, while Xavier suffered a bit of a letdown after their big win over Villanova, though Seton Hall is by no means a bad team. The win all but clinched a tournament bid for the Pirates, who will dance for the first time in 10 years. They've been close in recent years, but this year, they will finally break through. Great season for the Hall.

Despite the loss at Texas, I actually moved Oklahoma up to No. 2, though it was more Villanova being dropped to No. 3. The Sooners still have seven top-25 RPI wins, second to only Kansas' nine. And that head-to-head win over the Wildcats will still loom large for OU.

I also want to mention the great turnaround by last season's runners-up, Wisconsin. This was a team who, after their January 12 loss at Northwestern, was sitting at 9-9 overall and 1-4 in the Big Ten. Since then, they've only lost once, by 12 at Michigan State. Their recent roll includes home wins over Michigan and Indiana, plus road wins at Maryland and Iowa. What a story in Madison. The Badgers currently sit as a No. 7 seed and could be dangerous in March. Remember, Michigan State made the Final Four last season as a No. 7.

VCU reclaimed the Atlantic 10 auto-bid thanks to their hard-fought win at George Washington Saturday, coupled with Dayton's continued free-fall on Saturday, losing at home to Rhode Island. The Rams are tied with Saint Joseph's at 13-3 in the standings, but own a head-to-head victory. A big game awaits on Saturday when VCU visits Dayton. The Rams could help their at-large hopes with a victory, even if they don't win the A-10 Tournament.

This, by itself, caused some shakeup on the bubble. As it stands, VCU took Tulsa's spot in the field, who lost at Memphis Sunday. Not a good loss for the Hurricane, who also own a home loss to Oral Roberts (RPI No. 150). Also working against Tulsa (and Cincinnati, the second team out), is the hot streak of Vanderbilt, who knocked off Kentucky on Saturday, giving the Commodores four top-50 wins and a top-50 RPI. Vandy not only is in the field, but they are above the First Four cut line as a No. 10 seed.

Syracuse, Alabama, Florida and Gonzaga sit as the last teams in the field. Florida has been free-falling of late, but their wins over West Virginia and Saint Joseph's, plus a top-five non-conference schedule, may just be enough to sneak them in. They can really help themselves with a win Tuesday against Kentucky. And with Connecticut falling out of the top 50, Gonzaga doesn't boast a single top-50 RPI win and just three top-100 wins (Connecticut and Washington on neutral courts, BYU at home). However, the Zags have a top-50 non-conference schedule and no bad losses, which most bubble teams cannot claim.

No bad losses is also why Stanford has quietly played their way back onto the bubble. But they still have some work to do, as they sit just 14-12 overall. The Cardinals sit in the "Next Four Out" group.

Let's take a look at the bracket.



Last Four Byes: Providence, Connecticut, Oregon State, Vanderbilt
Last Four In: Syracuse, Alabama, Florida, Gonzaga
First Four Out: Tulsa, Cincinnati, Butler, St. Bonaventure
Next Four Out: George Washington, Stanford, Ohio State, Washington

Conference Rundown:

ACC - 7
Big 12 - 7
Big Ten - 7
Pac-12 - 7
SEC - 6
Big East - 4
Atlantic 10 - 3
AAC - 2
West Coast - 2
One-bid Leagues - 23

Saturday, February 27, 2016

Xavier Moves To Top Line, VCU Loses Lead and Spot

As we enter the final weekend of February, we have a new team sitting on the top line. After their impressive win over Villanova, Xavier now holds the last No. 1 seed in our projections, knocking Virginia to a two-seed. The Wildcats remain at No. 2 on the list, still headlining the East Region. Kansas (Midwest, No. 1 overall) and Oklahoma (South) also remain on the top line.

VCU suffered a very bad loss against George Mason, currently ranked 176th on the RPI table, per Live-RPI.com. That gives the Rams two losses outside the top 170, as they also hold a loss to 174th-ranked Massachusetts. They now sit in a three-way tie with Dayton and Saint Joseph's. Since the Rams and Flyers have not met yet (they meet next Saturday), RPI decides the current auto-bid, and that goes to Dayton (Flyers 17th, Hawks 25th, Rams 63rd). This moved VCU out of the field, down to the "next four out" group.

The Rams' loss ended up as Cincinnati's gain, as the Bearcats are in as the last team in today, joining Oregon State, Alabama and Tulsa in the last four in. First four out are Butler, Vanderbilt, George Washington and St. Bonaventure.

The Rams and GW meet today in D.C. in a huge bubble battle. The loser will have to make a deep run in the A-10 Tournament to get in.

Let's take a look at the bracket.



Procedural bumps: Alabama / Tulsa up from 11 to 10, Monmouth down from 10 to 11

Last Four Byes: Pittsburgh, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Florida
Last Four In: Oregon State, Alabama, Tulsa, Cincinnati
First Four Out: Butler, Vanderbilt, George Washington, St. Bonaventure
Next Four Out: VCU, UCLA, Washington, Georgia Tech

Conference Rundown:

ACC - 7
Big 12 - 7
Big Ten - 7
Pac-12 - 7
SEC - 5
AAC - 4
Big East - 4
Atlantic 10 - 2
West Coast - 2
One-bid Leagues - 23

Enjoy the games this weekend. We'll be back after the weekend to see how the bracket looks as we get set for the start of conference tournaments on Tuesday.


Tuesday, February 23, 2016

VCU, Saint Mary's Take Conference Leads, Shrink Bubble

Not as many spots available in today's projection, thanks to VCU and Saint Mary's, two teams that would be squarely on the bubble without their conference's auto-bid, taking the lead in their respective leagues, the Atlantic 10 and West Coast. The Rams were helped by Dayton's loss to St. Bonaventure and Saint Joseph's loss at Davidson. The Gaels handled their own business by completing the surprising season-sweep of Gonzaga. The Gaels and Zags are tied at 13-3, but the aforementioned sweep gives SMC the auto-bid and puts two West Coast teams in the field, though Gonzaga is now on the bubble as the last team with a bye. They've only got one top-50 win (Connecticut) and just a second top-100 win (Washington), both on neutral courts.

Today's last four in are Syracuse, Alabama, Butler and Oregon State. Just missing the cut were Cincinnati, Tulsa, George Washington and St. Bonaventure. Obviously this can change quite a bit. If teams like VCU, Saint Mary's, or even Wichita State or San Diego State stumble, the teams in the first four out can move right into the field. This is just another example of how bubble teams can claim their spots in the field and shrink the bubble.

Kansas remains the top team, followed by Villanova, Oklahoma and Virginia. The Cavs still have a strong record and good profile. But I found this interesting nugget from Patrick Stevens on Twitter. Virginia's loss at Miami clinched a losing road record for the Cavs. And it's been a long time since a team has done that and still earned a No. 1 seed. We'll keep the Cavs here for the time being, especially since they have a meeting with North Carolina upcoming. The race for the fourth number one seed will likely come down to Selection Sunday.

Let's take a look now at the bracket. And yes, you'll notice I paired Texas against VCU, aka Shaka Smart against his former team. And no, this was not on purpose. It just so happened they were paired together.


Last Four Byes: Michigan, Wisconsin, Seton Hall, Gonzaga
Last Four In: Syracuse, Alabama, Butler, Oregon State
First Four Out: Cincinnati, Tulsa, George Washington, St. Bonaventure
Next Four Out: UCLA, Vanderbilt, Washington, Georgia Tech

Conference Rundown

ACC - 7
Big 12 - 7
Big Ten - 7
Pac-12 - 7
Big East - 5
SEC - 5
Atlantic 10 - 3
American Athletic - 2
West Coast - 2
One-bid Leagues - 23

Enjoy the games this week and we'll see you this weekend for our next update.

Friday, February 19, 2016

Top Line Shakeup, American Athletic Adds Two

Wednesday was another wild day in college basketball, as Iowa, Oklahoma and North Carolina all went down to Penn State, Texas Tech and Duke, respectively. Obviously, the biggest upset here was the Nittany Lions over the Hawkeyes. Nonetheless, the top three seed lines saw some movement from this.

The Sooners do stay on the top line, but now lead the West Region as the fourth overall seed, behind Kansas, Villanova and Virginia. Six top-50 wins and a top-50 RPI still look strong. But 22-3 Xavier is right on their heels for the last No. 1 seed. Iowa fell to a two-seed, just ahead of Michigan State, whom the Hawkeyes swept. North Carolina fell to the three-line, while Miami (FL) now sits on line two. With a higher RPI, the Hurricanes currently hold the ACC's auto-bid.

As for the Red Raiders and Blue Devils, they both make good moves up the bracket with their wins. Tubby's Smith's crew now sits as a nine-seed, while Coach K is now in protected-seed range.

Another team that picked up a big win this week was Saint Joseph's, knocking off Dayton at home. That give's the Hawks their signature win and moved them inside the RPI Top 25, as well as a share of the Atlantic 10 lead with the Flyers and VCU. The Hawks are done with Dayton and VCU until the A-10 Tournament, while the Flyers and Rams meet at UD Arena on March 5 in the season-finale.

Washington continues to tumble and Florida State lost to Georgia Tech, dropping them from today's projection. In the Huskies' case, their RPI ranks 75th. That could spell bad news for UW.

In their place are a pair of American Athletic teams, Tulsa and Cincinnati, even with the Bearcats having just lost to the Golden Hurricane in overtime. Also moving into the field as an at-large is Butler, thanks to LSU losing the SEC's auto-bid and not earning an at-large in this projection. Those three join Seton Hall in today's last four in group. Just missing the cut are George Washington, VCU, LSU and Florida State. GW and VCU meet next Saturday in D.C. The loser will have their work cut out for them in Brooklyn for the A-10 Tournament.

Here's the updated bracket.


Last Four Byes: Oregon State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh
Last Four In: Seton Hall, Butler, Tulsa, Cincinnati
First Four Out: George Washington, VCU, LSU, Florida State
Next Four Out: Washington, St. Bonaventure, Saint Mary's, Ohio State

Conference Rundown

ACC - 7
Big 12 - 7
Big Ten - 7
Pac-12 - 7
Big East - 5
SEC - 5
AAC - 4
Atlantic 10 - 2
One-bid Leagues - 24

Notable Games this Weekend

Friday

Richmond at VCU
Yale at Princeton
Oakland at Valparaiso
Iona at Monmouth

The Rams look to avoid a home stumble at the hands of the Spiders a week before the big bubble showdown with George Washington. The other three games pit the top two teams in the Ivy, Horizon and MAAC standings, as the Bulldogs, Crusaders and Hawks can take control of their respective conferences with a win, particularly Yale.

A win puts Yale at 9-0 in Ivy play and drop Princeton to 6-2, which would put the Bulldogs two ahead in the loss column with five to play. Remember, the Ivy League does not hold a conference tournament. The regular season champion earns the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Saturday

Florida at South Carolina

Two teams hovering around the middle of the bracket. The winner could eventually wear their home whites in the first round of the tournament.

Duke at Louisville

Duke goes for a road trip sweep of UNC and Louisville this week as they continue their climb back up the bracket.

Xavier at Georgetown

The Musketeers look for revenge from their January 19 home loss to the Hoyas, who may need to win at MSG to reach the Big Dance.

UNC Asheville at Winthrop

These two are tied atop the Big South standings. The winner will be in the next projection.

St. Bonaventure at Dayton

Dayton tries to bounce back from the Saint Joe's loss, while the Bonnies really need this one to help their bubble case.

Miami (FL) at North Carolina

The ACC lead, and a spot on line two in the next bracket, are on the line in this battle in Chapel Hill.

Wagner at Central Connecticut

Northeast leader Wagner visits the team sitting dead last on the RPI table.

Baylor at Texas

A solid Big 12 battle here. The Longhorns won in Waco on February 1.

Pittsburgh at Syracuse

A pair of ACC bubble teams meet in the Carrier Dome. The Panthers may need this one more, as they are right above the cut line for avoiding the First Four in Dayton.

Saint Joseph's at Davidson

The Hawks look to avoid a letdown against the Wildcats after their big win over Dayton.

Mississippi State at Alabama

The Tide are rolling. They don't want to slip up against an SEC bottom-feeder.

Butler at Villanova

Butler is back in the field. A win over Villanova will definitely keep them there.

Florida State at Virginia Tech

The Seminoles need to right the ship, and fast. A loss to the Hokies would be devastating to their tournament hopes.

Oklahoma at West Virginia

Two top Big 12 teams go at it in Morgantown. The Mountaineers could potentially knock the Sooners off the top line.

Connecticut at Cincinnati

A season-sweep of the Huskies would do wonders for the Bearcats' tournament chances, after winning at UConn on January 28.

Stephen F. Austin at Nicholls State

The Lumberjacks look to stay unbeaten in Southland play.

UNC Greensboro at Chattanooga

The Mocs go for the season-sweep of the Spartans and keep their two-game lead intact.

Texas Southern at Mississippi Valley State

After going 1-11 in non-conference play, Texas Southern can get over .500 if they can defeat the Delta Devils.

LSU at Tennessee

LSU cannot afford a loss against Tennessee, as that would be five against teams out the RPI Top 100, which is a recipe for disaster for a bubble team.

Kansas at Kansas State

The top team in the bracket visits the Octagon of Doom. The Wildcats knocked off Oklahoma at home. Can they do the same to the Jayhawks?

Tennessee Tech at Belmont

First-place in the Ohio Valley is at stake. Tech beat Belmont at home on January 30.

Kentucky at Texas A&M

Kentucky looks to keep their roll going while the Aggies try to climb back up the bracket after their free-falling February.

South Carolina Upstate at North Florida

The Ospreys share the A-Sun lead at the moment with Jacksonville entering this rematch of last season's A-Sun Tournament final.

Omaha at IPFW

New Summit leader IPFW looks to hold off one of the teams chasing them in the standings in Omaha.

Yale at Penn

If they get past Princeton, Yale can begin closing in on the Ivy title with a win over Penn.

TCU at Iowa State

Iowa State looks to avoid a bad loss at the hands of the Horned Frogs.

Notre Dame at Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets just picked off Florida State. Now they get a shot at the Fighting Irish.

Stanford at Washington

Two Pac-12 teams on the outside looking in. The loser will leave with 12 losses and cannot afford many more if they want an at-large.

Purdue at Indiana

Indiana currently is tied with Iowa atop the Big Ten, thanks to Penn State. A win keeps them there. Purdue is looking to track down the Hoosiers and Hawkeyes.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State

Tubby Smith has his team rolling, off the heels of the Oklahoma win. They don't want to suffer a letdown in Stillwater.

Saint Mary's at Gonzaga

The Gaels' at-large hopes could go up in smoke if they can't knock off the Zags.

Oregon State at Oregon

A win in Eugene, completing a season-sweep of the Ducks, would really help move the Beavers closer to safety.

Colorado at UCLA

UCLA has a pulse, but they also have 12 losses. If they can't defeat the Buffs, the Bruins are probably thinking NIT. Then again, the Committee could shock everyone and put them in, anyway.

Hawaii at UC Irvine

The Warriors can earn a season-sweep of the Anteaters and build a two-game lead in the Big West with a win.

Sunday

Boston University at Bucknell

Bucknell's story is the same as Hawaii's. They would have a two-game lead on Boston U, with the head-to-head sweep, if they win.

Seton Hall at St. John's

A loss to the bottom-dwelling Red Storm would be no bueno for the Hall.

La Salle at George Washington

The Colonials cannot get caught looking ahead to their meeting with VCU. A loss to the Explorers would be crushing.

Michigan at Maryland

After stumbling at Ohio State, the Wolverines can bounce back at Maryland. But you know the Terps are angry after losing to a bad Minnesota team.

Tulsa at UCF

As long as the Hurricane avoid a bad loss to UCF, they should be okay for the next projection.

Stony Brook at Maine

Stony Brook lost to Albany on Wednesday, their first loss since December 12. They look to recover against Maine, whom they defeated by 27 on January 25.

Monmouth at Saint Peter's

The Hawks look to keep rolling and dancing their way to the MAAC title against Saint Peter's.

Detroit at Valparaiso

Coming off the Oakland game, Valpo hosts the Titans as they look to stay atop the Horizon.

San Diego State at San Jose State

The Aztecs have a comfortable lead in the Mountain West. But a loss to San Jose State would really hurt their seeding.

Wichita State at Indiana State

Just like San Diego State, the Shockers have a decent lead in the Valley, but would be a bubble team without the auto-bid.

Utah at USC

The Trojans suffered a tough loss to Arizona State. A win over the Utes would turn them back in the right direction.

Temple at Houston

Temple looks to hold on to their spot as the AAC's auto-bid, while the Cougars are still in the hunt for the regular-season title, especially after their 27-point win at Temple on January 2.

Illinois at Wisconsin

The Badgers would move back closer to Dayton and the First Four if they're upset by the Illini.

California at Washington State

California finally picked up a good win away from home on Thursday at Washington. They go for two Pac-12 road wins in a row against Washington State.

Remember, you can see how I stack up against other bracketologists at the Bracket Matrix. Enjoy the games and I'll see you next week.



Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Final Four Weeks: Kansas New No. 1, Tech Moves In

A bit of a shakeup happened over the weekend in our bracket projections, which includes a new team sitting as the top overall seed. Coming off the heels of their sweep of Oklahoma, the Kansas Jayhawks are now the top team in today's bracket, headlining the Midwest Region, followed by Oklahoma (South), Villanova (East) and Iowa (West). The Hawkeyes leading the Big Ten is a boost, as well as their sweeps of Michigan State and Purdue. North Carolina, Virginia, Xavier and Oregon sit on the two line. The Ducks have the most top 25 (six), top 50 (eight) and top 100 (14) wins in the nation.

A couple new additions to the bracket from Friday. Thanks to their head-to-head win over Kentucky, LSU currently owns the AQ from the SEC (I used head-to-head results, followed by RPI). This actually shrunk the bubble. The Tigers would not have gotten an at-large as of today. Also entering the field, fresh off their wins over Iowa State and at Baylor, the Red Raiders of Texas Tech. The win at Baylor was the key road win the Red Raiders were desperately lacking. They now have four top-50 wins, an RPI rating of 32 and a top-50 non-conference schedule. Let's see if they can hang on to their spot.

Joining Tech among the last four in are Seton Hall, Washington and Florida State. Just missing the cut were Cincinnati, VCU, Butler and Tulsa.

Here now is your updated bracket.

Last four byes: Alabama, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Oregon State
Last four in: Texas Tech, Seton Hall, Washington, Florida State
First four out: Cincinnati, VCU, Butler, Tulsa
Next four out: St. Bonaventure, George Washington, Saint Mary's, UCLA

Conference Rundown:

ACC - 8
Pac-12 - 8
Big Ten - 7
Big 12 - 7
SEC - 6
Big East - 4
AAC - 2
Atlantic 10 - 2
One-bid Leagues - 24

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Brackets For All You Sweethearts Out There

It was another crazy week of college action that saw two top teams go down on the road. Xavier lost by double-digits at Creighton, while Iowa fell to Indiana at Assembly Hall.

Iowa does remain on the top line for now, sitting fourth on the seed list, while Xavier fell to number five, putting them on the two line. Moving up the board is Virginia. They've got four wins against the RPI Top 25, including wins over Villanova and West Virginia. Another four wins against the top 50 gives them eight total, as well as four more against the top 100, for a total of 12. The Cavaliers visit Duke Saturday in what should be a fun game. And in two weeks, they host North Carolina in a game that could decide the regular-season ACC championship.

Moving into the field as at-larges are Alabama, Wisconsin and Cincinnati. LSU lost the SEC's AQ bid for the moment, dropping them from the field, while George Washington and St. Mary's also fell out. GW lost at home to Saint Joseph's, while St. Mary's was swept by Pepperdine, losing at home on Thursday, which killed their RPI, dropping them to 72 at the moment. Brutal loss.

The committee loves teams with strong non-conference schedules and that's where the Tide and Badgers come into play. Alabama's non-conference schedule ranks 16th and includes neutral-court wins over Notre Dame and Wichita State, both in the top half of the field. They've also defeated South Carolina and Texas A&M at home.

For Wisconsin, they have been playing better of late, as they try to recover from the early-season blunders of losing at home to Western Illinois and Wisconsin-Milwaukee. It certainly helps that their two best non-conference wins (Syracuse and Temple) have been looking better and better as the days go by. Home wins over Michigan State and Indiana help, too, especially with the Hoosiers having just defeated Iowa. Add the fact that their non-conference schedule currently ranks 34th, and Wisconsin is in the field, for now. A tough upcoming stretch will determine if Wisconsin will stay in the field. The visit Maryland on Saturday and Michigan State on Thursday. Win one of those games, and the Badgers will have a compelling case heading toward Selection Sunday.

The last team in the field right now is Cincinnati. It was very close, but a head-to-head win over Tulsa helped tip the scales in the Bearcats' favor. Good wins for Cincy also include at Connecticut and VCU and a win over George Washington in the Barclays Center Classic. Butler was also in the mix, but just have the win over Notre Dame to hang their hat on right now. A big opportunity awaits on Saturday for the Bulldogs when they host Xavier.

However, Tulsa gets a chance for revenge, and possibly to take Cincinnati's spot in the field, on Thursday when the teams meet at Tulsa. The Bearcats also still have to host UConn next Saturday and SMU in the season finale on March 6.

With that, let's take a look at the full bracket, followed by conference rundown.



Procedural Moves:
VCU/Alabama from 11 to 10, Gonzaga from 10 to 11
Wisconsin/Cincinnati from 12 to 11, Florida State from 11 to 12

Last Four Byes: Michigan, Washington, Florida State, Seton Hall
Last Four In: VCU, Wisconsin, Alabama, Cincinnati
First Four Out: Butler, Tulsa, George Washington, St. Mary's
Next Four Out: St. Bonaventure, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, LSU

Conference Rundown:

ACC - 8
Pac-12 - 8
Big Ten - 7
Big 12 - 6
SEC - 5
Big East - 4
AAC - 3
Atlantic 10 - 3
One-bid Leagues - 24


Monday, February 8, 2016

Post-Super Bowl Bracketology

The confetti has fallen in San Francisco and Peyton Manning has likely played his final NFL game. If he did, what a perfect way to him to go out, as Super Bowl champion, as the Denver Broncos defeated the Carolina Panthers, 24-10, to win Super Bowl 50.

Now that the NFL season is over, it's full steam ahead towards the NCAA Tournament. We are just five weeks away from Selection Sunday and we're coming off a crazy weekend that saw the top two teams in the AP and Coaches Poll both lose. Oklahoma (AP No. 1) lost at Kansas State, while North Carolina (No. 1 in the Coaches Poll) lost at Notre Dame.

Despite the loss, I still have the Sooners as the overall top seed in the bracket. No. 2 RPI and their win over Villanova (who is now No. 2 in the bracket) still hold strong for Oklahoma. Rounding out the top line are 21-2 Xavier and Big Ten leader Iowa.

North Carolina sits at No. 7 on the seed list, behind Virginia and Kansas, with Maryland rounding out the twos.

In regards to the bubble, Clemson lost at Virginia Tech while Vanderbilt lost at Ole Miss, dropping them from the bracket. The bubble actually shrunk for this bracket as LSU currently holds the auto-bid from the SEC. Also new to the field as an at-large is Oregon State, fresh off a win over Colorado.

The win over Oklahoma was not enough to move Kansas State into the field. That's their only win against the top 50 (versus nine losses), and the Wildcats are 3-7 in Big 12 play. K-State does have two games against TCU and a game against Texas Tech left on the schedule. But even if they win those games, that only brings them to six Big 12 wins. They likely have to take at least two out of their three-game stretch against Kansas, Texas and Iowa State. The good news is the Jayhawks and Longhorns have to visit the Octagon of Doom.

Here is your updated bracket.

Last Four Byes: Connecticut, VCU, Michigan, George Washington
Last Four In: Seton Hall, Oregon State, Saint Mary's, Saint Joseph's
First Four Out: Wisconsin, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati
Next Four Out: Butler, St. Bonaventure, Clemson, Kansas State
Also Considered: UCLA, Georgetown, Stanford, Georgia, Tulsa, Ohio State, Boise State, BYU

Conference Rundown

ACC - 8
Pac-12 - 8
Big 12 - 6
Big Ten - 6
SEC - 5
Atlantic 10 - 4
Big East - 4
AAC - 2
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 23

Friday, February 5, 2016

Post-Louisville News Bracket Update

With the news that Louisville has self-imposed a postseason ban for this season, I have updated my bracket projections accordingly.

With the Cardinals dropping out, Clemson moves back in as the last team in the field, meaning the ACC neither loses nor gains a team in the projections. They stay at nine teams.

The last four in are now Seton Hall, George Washington, St. Mary's and Clemson. The first four out are now Vanderbilt, LSU, Wisconsin and Butler.

Here is the updated bracket.

Last Four Byes: Syracuse, Cincinnati, South Carolina, Saint Joseph's
Last Four In: Seton Hall, George Washington, St. Mary's, Clemson
First Four Out: Vanderbilt, LSU, Wisconsin, Butler
Next Four Out: Georgetown, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon State

Conference Rundown

ACC - 9
Pac-12 - 7
Big 12 - 6
Big Ten - 6
Atlantic 10 - 4
Big East - 4
SEC - 4
American Athletic - 3
West Coast - 2
One-bid Leagues - 23

Super Bowl Weekend Bracketology

It's the first weekend of February and, for all you big sports fans, it's the weekend of historic Super Bowl 50. (Shameless plug, check out my podcast, Gridiron Graduates with Ian Wharton, to see who we think will hoist the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday.)

As for today, we're talking brackets. One change from Tuesday's bracket is that Temple is in the field as the "leader" of the American Athletic Conference (SMU is ineligible). The Owls are tied with Cincinnati at 6-3, but Temple has a head-to-head sweep of the Bearcats. This gives the ACC three teams in today's bracket, along with Connecticut.

Temple knocks Clemson out of the field, who do not play another team currently in the field until they host Virginia on March 1. Also just missing the cut line today are Vanderbilt, LSU and Wisconsin. The Badgers have some big chances coming up. After Wednesday's game against Nebraska, three of the following five games are against current tournament teams Maryland, Michigan State, Iowa and Michigan.

Vanderbilt scored a much-needed win at home Thursday against Texas A&M. They also still have second meetings with Florida, Kentucky and the Aggies remaining on the schedule.

Today's last four in are Saint Joseph's, Seton Hall, George Washington and St. Mary's. I know I dropped the Gaels quite a bit coming off their loss at BYU. But it also meant taking another look at their resume, now that Gonzaga is the current AQ from the West Coast. St. Mary's has zero wins against the RPI top 200 away from home. They're also overcoming a loss at Pepperdine. They're similar to South Carolina in that they have a gaudy record, but not much meat on the resume.

Let's now check out today's bracket.

Last Four Byes: California, Syracuse, Cincinnati, South Carolina
Last Four In: Saint Joseph's, Seton Hall, George Washington, St. Mary's
First Four Out: Clemson, Vanderbilt, LSU, Wisconsin
Next Four Out: Butler, Georgetown, UCLA, Stanford

Conference Rundown

ACC - 9
Pac-12 - 7
Big 12 - 6
Big Ten - 6
Atlantic 10 - 4
Big East - 4
SEC - 4
American Athletic - 3
West Coast - 2
One-bid Leagues - 23

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

First 2016 Bracket Update (Finally)

Sorry for being so late to the party, but I finally got around to building my first bracket of 2016. Better late than never, I guess.

It has been quite an interesting season so far and only sets up what should be an exciting final five and a half weeks of the season before Selection Sunday on March 13.

After going back and forth for a bit, I landed on Oklahoma, Xavier, Kansas and Iowa as the top seeds for my first bracket, with North Carolina, Villanova, Virginia and Texas A&M as the twos. It may seem against the grain, especially having Xavier number two overall, but I like the profile of the Musketeers. Obviously a long way to go and this is very fluid. Villanova can easily get to the top line, especially if they complete the season-sweep of Xavier on February 24.

As far as the first bubble here, the lteams currently slotted for Dayton are George Washington, Gonzaga, Seton Hall and Clemson. The Tigers have certainly built a nice stable of wins during conference play, something they really needed since they only have one other win against the RPI Top 200 (just barely, No. 198 Texas Southern).

So here it is, at long last, the first bracket of 2016. And as always, check out the Bracket Matrix. Always great work over there keeping track of all the brackets.





Last Four Byes: South Carolina, California, Syracuse, Saint Joseph's
Last Four In: George Washington, Gonzaga, Seton Hall, Clemson
First Four Out: Butler, UCLA, Stanford, Georgetown
Next Four Out: LSU, Wisconsin, Oregon State, Vanderbilt

Conference Rundown:

ACC - 10
Pac-12 - 7
Big Ten - 6
Big 12 - 6
Atlantic 10 - 4
Big East - 4
SEC - 4
AAC - 2
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 23