Final 2025 Bracket Prediction

 VCU and Memphis both won Sunday, meaning the bubble stayed exactly where it was entering the day. That means our final bracket has Indiana and Boise State as the last two in, while Texas, North Carolina and Xavier are left out. 

Florida defeated Tennessee to win the SEC and secure the final No. 1 seed, though they likely had it anyway. Michigan defeated Wisconsin to win the Big Ten and Yale goes back-to-back in the Ivy League.

With that, it's time to dance! Before the actual bracket reveal, here is my final bracket prediction. Thank you for another fun season. Let's do it again next year!

Last Four Byes: Utah State, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt

Last Four In: West Virginia, San Diego State, Indiana, Boise State 
First Four Out: Xavier, Texas, North Carolina, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Dayton, North Texas, UC Irvine, George Mason

Conference Breakdown

SEC - 13

Big Ten - 9

Big 12 - 8

Mountain West - 5

Big East - 4

ACC - 3

West Coast - 2

One-bid leagues - 24

And of course, check out the Bracket Matrix to see how I fared for my final grade (and to see if I did better than Joe Lunardi).

Selection Sunday is Here

The day has arrived. Selection Sunday is here. The last five automatic bids to the tournament will be handed out today and then, come 6:00 eastern on CBS, we will find out what the field of 68 looks like.

Before we go further, let’s take a moment to remember the greatness of the one and only Greg Gumbel. The longtime broadcaster passed away on December 27 after a long battle with cancer. He was 78 years old. He was a consummate professional in all aspects of his career, but especially with the NCAA Tournament. He was the face of the Selection Show. 

Adam Zucker has since taken over and will do a great job. But today is going to feel very different knowing the great Greg Gumbel is no longer with us. But we know he’ll be watching down upon us and revealing the 68 teams right there with Zucker. Rest in peace, Greg Gumbel.

As far as the bracket goes, the top of the bracket looks set. It should be Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida, in that order. Could the committee move Tennessee up if they beat Florida to win the SEC title? Maybe. But we’re sticking with Florida.

The two line also feels locked in with Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State and St. John’s. Texas Tech and Kentucky are likely on the 3 line with Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa State and Texas A&M all in play for the other two spots.

On the bubble, Colorado State took any guesswork away from the committee as they secured the automatic bid from the Mountain West for the first time since 2003. Will that bid come at the expense of conference partner Boise State? Our current bracket has the Broncos as the last team in but sweating a lot Sunday. Not one, but two potential bid thieves are lurking Sunday in the Atlantic 10 (George Mason) and American (UAB). So not only is Boise on the ropes, so is Indiana.

Xavier, Texas and North Carolina are on the short end of the stick. Would it be surprising if any of them get selected? Not completely but UNC would be the most surprising with a 1-12 Quad 1 record.

With the bubble shrinking, West Virginia fell into the last four in group and is projected to go to Dayton for the First Four. Two other candidates that could end up in Dayton are Utah State and Vanderbilt.

Big congratulations are in store both the men’s and women’s teams at UC San Diego. In their first year of eligibility for the tournament, both programs won their respective Big West championships Saturday to claim their tickets to the dance. 

That means the men’s tournament will have four teams dancing for the first time: UC San Diego, High Point, Omaha and SIU-Edwardsville.

With all that said, for the penultimate time, here is our bracket projection. The final bracket will be posted just before the Selection Show at 6:00.

Last Four Byes: Utah State, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt

Last Four In: West Virginia, San Diego State, Indiana, Boise State 
First Four Out: Xavier, Texas, North Carolina, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Dayton, North Texas, UC Irvine, George Mason

Conference Breakdown

SEC - 13

Big Ten - 9

Big 12 - 8

Mountain West - 5

Big East - 4

ACC - 3

West Coast - 2

One-bid leagues - 24

As always, check out the Bracket Matrix to see how this bracket stacks up to the rest of the bracketology world.

Championship Week Friday Bracket

Selection Sunday is just two days away and the bracket is starting to take shape. For the most part, we have a good idea of who is going dancing next week, but there are still some bubble teams looking to secure an automatic bid while potential bid thieves are still making bubble teams sweat.

Two big winners from Thursday were North Carolina and Texas. The No. 5 seed Tar Heels scored a quarterfinal win over Wake Forest to set up a semifinal rematch with Duke, who may be without Cooper Flagg (sprained ankle vs. Georgia Tech). 

The No. 13 seed Longhorns needed double overtime but pulled off the big upset over Texas A&M to advance to the SEC quarterfinals against Tennessee. With seven Quad 1 wins, Texas beats out Boise State and Xavier for the last spot in the field, giving the SEC 14 teams in the field.

Boise State scored a much-needed victory over San Diego State to reach the Mountain West semifinals against No. 1 New Mexico. A win over the Lobos puts Boise State in position to secure the automatic bid and take themselves off the bubble completely.

As for Xavier, they’re left to sweat out the weekend after blowing a 15-point and losing to Marquette in the Big East quarterfinals. Xavier does now have two Quad 1 wins after Connecticut moved into the top 30 of the NET, making Xavier’s home win against the Huskies a Quad 1. Given this bubble, it wouldn’t be surprising if the committee puts Xavier in. But for now, we have the big X out.

Expect more updates and changes to the bracket as bubble teams potentially play their way in or out while bid thieves potentially shrink the bubble.

For now, here is today’s updated bracket.

Last Four Byes: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, West Virginia

Last Four In: Indiana, San Diego State, North Carolina, Texas
First Four Out: Boise State, Xavier, Ohio State, Colorado State
Next Four Out: SMU, North Texas, UC Irvine, Dayton

Conference Breakdown

SEC - 14
Big Ten - 9
Big 12 - 8
Big East - 4
ACC - 4
Mountain West - 3
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 24

As always, check out the Bracket Matrix to see how this bracket stacks up to the rest of the bracketology world.

 

Championship Week Wednesday Bracket Update

There may not have been much change to the bracket Tuesday, but that doesn't mean there wasn't excitement on the court. The most excitement may have come in New Britain, Connecticut. The Red Flash of St. Francis, 13-17 overall entering the NEC tournament (10-17 against Division I) found their groove at just the right time and, despite a tough shooting day, stood tall on defense to end the 14-game winning streak of Central Connecticut to advance to the NCAA Tournament for only the second time in school history and first since 1991.

St. Francis is up to No. 296 in the NET rankings and below 300 in BPI, KenPom and Torvik. They will almost undoubtedly be No. 68 on the tournament seed list and likely face the Patriot League winner, either American or Navy (that game is tonight). This also bumps Omaha up to a No. 15 seed and moves Quinnipiac above the last four automatic qualifiers and directly into the main bracket of 64.

Also punching their tickets Tuesday were Horizon League champion Robert Morris (first appearance since 2015), Coastal champion UNC Wilmington (2017) and West Coast champion Gonzaga (26th consecutive appearance).

Wednesday sees three more champions crowned, the last three until 12 are decided on Saturday and five on Sunday.

• Southland championship: Lamar vs. McNeese
• Patriot League championship: Navy vs. American
• Big Sky championship: Montana vs. Northern Colorado

Action continues in the ACC, Big 12, Conference USA, Metro Atlantic, SWAC and WAC. Eight more conferences begin their tournaments Wednesday: American, Atlantic 10, Big East, Big Ten, Big West, Mountain West and SEC.

Plenty of bubble teams are in action Wednesday, including North Carolina, Texas, Oklahoma and Ohio State, all of whom need wins to help their respective causes. Texas and Oklahoma have the best opportunities against Vanderbilt and Georgia, respectively. 

North Carolina is in a tough spot because they wouldn't get a chance at a quality win until at least the semifinals if they meet Duke. A win over Notre Dame sets them up against Wake Forest in the quarterfinals. Wins there wouldn't quite put the Tar Heels in the field, but losses can very well keep them out.

Ohio State needs a win over Iowa to feel better about their chances. A win also sets up a big opportunity against Illinois in the second round.

Here's the rundown of games on Wednesday.

Atlantic 10 First Round (Washington, D.C.)

Richmond vs. Davidson (11:30, USA Network)

Fordham vs. Rhode Island (2:00, USA Network)

La Salle vs. UMass (4:30, USA Network)

ACC Second Round (Charlotte, NC)

Virginia vs. Georgia Tech (12:00, ESPN)

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina (2:30, ESPN)

California vs. Stanford (7:00, ESPN2)

Syracuse vs. SMU (9:30, ESPNU)

American First Round (Denton, TX)

Charlotte vs. Rice (1:00, ESPN+)

Big Ten First Round (Indianapolis, IN)

Northwestern vs. Minnesota (3:30, Peacock)

Iowa vs. Ohio State (6:00, Peacock)

USC vs. Rutgers (8:30, Peacock)

Big 12 Second Round (Kansas City, MO)

Cincinnati vs. Iowa State (12:30, ESPN)

Colorado vs. West Virginia (3:00, ESPN+)

Kansas State vs. Baylor (7:00, ESPN+)

UCF vs. Kansas (9:30, ESPN2)

Big East First Round (New York, NY)

Butler vs. Providence (4:00, Peacock)

DePaul vs. Georgetown (6:30, Peacock)

Seton Hall vs. Villanova (9:00, Peacock)

Big West First Round (Henderson, NV)

Cal State Bakersfield vs. UC Santa Barbara (9:00, ESPN+)

Cal Poly vs. UC Davis (11:30, ESPN+)

Conference USA Quarterfinals (Huntsville, AL)

UTEP vs. Liberty (6:30, ESPN+)

Florida International vs. Jacksonville State (9:00, ESPN+)

MAAC Quarterfinals (Atlantic City, NJ)

Rider vs. Quinnipiac (6:00, ESPN+)

Sacred Heart vs. Merrimack (8:30, ESPN+)

MEAC Quarterfinals (Norfolk, VA)

Maryland-Eastern Shore vs. Norfolk State (6:00, ESPN+)

Coppin State vs. South Carolina State (8:00, ESPN+)

SEC First Round (Nashville. TN)

South Carolina vs. Arkansas (1:00, SECN)

Texas vs. Vanderbilt (3:30, SECN)

LSU vs. Mississippi State (7:00, SECN)

Oklahoma vs. Georgia (9:30, SECN)

SWAC Quarterfinals (College Park, GA)

Grambling vs. Southern (2:00, ESPN+)

Florida A&M vs. Jackson State (8:30, ESPN+)

WAC Quarterfinals (Las Vegas, NV)

Utah Tech vs. Utah Valley (9:00, ESPN+)

Texas-Arlington vs. Grand Canyon (11:30, ESPN+)

Here's your bracket update.

Last Four Byes: Georgia, Arkansas, West Virginia, San Diego State

Last Four In: Indiana, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Xavier
First Four Out: North Carolina, Texas, Boise State, Colorado State
Next Four Out: SMU, Nebraska, San Francisco, UC Irvine

Conference Breakdown

SEC - 13
Big Ten - 10
Big 12 - 8
Big East - 5
ACC - 3
Mountain West - 3
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 24

As always, check out the Bracket Matrix to see how this bracket stacks up to the rest of the bracketology world.

 

Championship Week Tuesday Bracket Update

Two more teams punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament Monday. No. 6 seed Wofford knocked off No. 5 seed Furman to claim the Southern Conference title. Fun fact (hat tip CBS Sports): the SoCon has had six winners over the last six seasons. Starting with the 2019-20 season, there was East Tennessee State (who did not get to dance because of Covid), UNC Greensboro, Chattanooga, Furman, Samford and now Wofford. The Terriers are dancing for the first time since 2019, when they were a No. 7 seed and advanced to the second round. Wofford is currently projected as a No. 15 seed.

Elsewhere, for the first time since 2017, Troy is heading to the dance. The Trojans knocked off Arkansas State to claim the Sun Belt. That was one of the more wide-open fields as four teams (Troy, Arkansas State, South Alabama and James Madison) all shared the regular-season title. Troy is currently projected as a No. 14 seed.

The other change to the bracket was UNC Wilmington in as the Coastal representative after No. 1 seed Towson was stunned by No. 12 seed Delaware in the semifinals. The Blue Hens were 5-13 in conference play and are 16-19 overall. But they have now won four games in four days to reach the final. Delaware will undoubtedly start the tournament in Dayton if they pull the upset Tuesday. 

Tuesday sees four more teams officially claim their spot in the field. Here are the four championship games.

• Coastal: Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington (7:00, CBSSN)
• Northeast: St. Francis (PA) vs. Central Connecticut (7:00, ESPN2)
• Horizon: Youngstown State vs. Robert Morris 7:00, ESPN)
• West Coast: Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's (9:00, ESPN)

Also on Tuesday, the power conferences join the party as the ACC and Big 12 tournaments get underway with opening-round games. The Metro Atlantic, SWAC, WAC and Conference USA also begin their tournaments and we'll set up championship games in the America East, Big Sky and Southland.

Not much will change in the bracket over the next few days, but we'll still have updates. Here is today's update.

Last Four Byes: Georgia, Arkansas, West Virginia, San Diego State

Last Four In: Indiana, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Xavier
First Four Out: North Carolina, Texas, Boise State, Colorado State
Next Four Out: SMU, Nebraska, San Francisco, UC Irvine

Conference Breakdown

SEC - 13
Big Ten - 10
Big 12 - 8
Big East - 5
ACC - 3
Mountain West - 3
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 24

As always, check out the Bracket Matrix to see how this bracket stacks up to the rest of the bracketology world.

Championship Week Monday Bracket Update

We have made it to Championship Week! The regular season is in the books and we are less than one week away from Selection Sunday. Tickets will be, and have already been, punched. Five teams are officially dancing. Three teams are going for the first time in school history. They are Ohio Valley champion SIUE (Southern Illinois University Edwardsville), Big South champion High Point and Summit League champion Omaha.

Drake (Missouri Valley) and Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun) are also heading to the tournament.

As we begin Championship Week, the top line remains the same, though the gap between Auburn and Duke has closed a bit after Auburn dropped their last two games. That said, it took a buzzer-beater floater from Mark Sears to give Alabama the win.

That win moved Alabama to No. 5 on the seed list, behind Florida. No. 6 Tennessee and No. 7 Michigan State also still have a chance to get to the top line.

At the end of the 2-seed line, here's the Johnnies! (Insert Ed McMahon's voice here.) Rick Pitino's crew claimed the Big East title and that should give them some weight if it comes down to them and Texas Tech for the spot.

As far as the bubble goes, since our last update, Xavier is in and Nebraska is out. Xavier has kept the ship afloat while Texas and North Carolina have failed to take advantage. The Tar Heels really needed that win over Duke. But the biggest loser was the Cornhuskers.

Not only did Nebraska lose to an Iowa team that didn't have a single Quad 1 win (now 1-14), they lost their spot in the Big Ten tournament. 15 teams are heading to Indianapolis for the Big Ten tournament. Nebraska will not be one of those teams. Ironically, Iowa ended up as the last team in with that win Sunday.

Nebraska goes into the clubhouse at 17-14 and with computer numbers all outside the top 50, some outside the top 60. They are 5-10 against Quad 1, 4-2 against Quad 2 and 2-2 against Quad 3 (home losses to Rutgers and Minnesota, both inside the NET top 100). That's 11-14 against the top three quadrants, which may leave a bad taste in the committee's mouth. Nebraska is likely NIT bound.

Another team that has played their way into conversation, and could very well be a bid thief, is Colorado State. The Rams completed a season sweep of Boise State and will be the No. 2 seed in the Mountain West tournament. They also have home wins over Utah State and San Diego State. 

Two bids will be handed out today. Troy and Arkansas State will battle for the Sun Belt title while Wofford and Furman will decide who represents the Southern Conference in the dance.

We also have semifinal action in the Horizon, Coastal and West Coast tournaments, plus quarterfinal action in the Southland and Big Sky tournaments.

Here is the latest bracket update.

Last Four Byes: Georgia, Arkansas, West Virginia, San Diego State
Last Four In: Indiana, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Xavier
First Four Out: North Carolina, Texas, Boise State, Colorado State
Next Four Out: SMU, Nebraska, San Francisco, UC Irvine

Conference Breakdown

SEC - 13
Big Ten - 10
Big 12 - 8
Big East - 5
ACC - 3
Mountain West - 3
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 24

As always, check out the Bracket Matrix to see how this bracket stacks up to the rest of the bracketology world.

Florida moves up to top line entering season's final weekend

As we discussed earlier in the week, the race for the final No. 1 seed is tight. Alabama entered Wednesday's action as our final team on the top line, but ever so slightly ahead of Tennessee and Florida. 

After a big win in Tuscaloosa for the Gators and Tennessee falling at Ole Miss, the Gators enter the final weekend of the regular season as the last No. 1 seed, headlining the West region. Tennessee, Alabama and even Michigan State all have a chance to overtake the Gators.

Auburn and Duke are locks for a No. 1 seed and Houston is within striking distance of being in the same category after cruising to the Big 12 regular season title. Florida finishing second in the SEC could carry some weight on Selection Sunday.

On the other side of the bracket, Oklahoma scored a huge victory over Missouri and may have given themselves some breathing room, given how this bubble is shaping up. A huge bubble showdown against Texas awaits on Saturday. A loss for the Longhorns will be a huge blow to their tournament hopes.

Here's the full bracket entering the weekend.

Note: BYU (true No. 8 seed) was moved up two seed lines to adhere to their rule of no athletic events on Sundays. Oregon (true No. 6) and UCLA (true No. 7) were moved down one line each in corresponding moves.

Last Four Byes: West Virginia, Georgia, San Diego State, Arkansas
Last Four In: Oklahoma, Ohio State, Indiana, Nebraska
First Four Out: Texas, North Carolina, Xavier, Boise State
Next Four Out: SMU, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, George Mason

Conference Breakdown

SEC - 13
Big Ten - 11
Big 12 - 8
Big East - 4
ACC - 3
Mountain West - 3
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 24

As always, check out the Bracket Matrix to see how this bracket stacks up to the rest of the bracketology world.