Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Texas Tech up to a 2-seed on special "Twos"-day bracket

 How fitting is it that 2/22/22 falls on a Tuesday? It just feels like a special day so enjoy it. Just like Texas Tech is enjoying their run under first-year head coach Mark Adams.

The Red Raiders are 21-6 and top ten or 15 in nearly every computer metric, including No. 8 in NET. They have won six of their last seven games, including a six-point win o the road over their former coach, Chris Beard, and Texas, completing the season-sweep of the Longhorns. Tech has now swept both Texas and Baylor and also earned a split with current No. 3 overall seed Kansas. 

As a result, Texas Tech now sits on our projected 2-line in today's bracket, along with Baylor, Kentucky and Purdue. Duke dropped to a No. 3 seed as a result.

Also over the weekend, the Selection Committee unveiled their early top 16. Not surprisingly, Gonzaga was revealed as the overall No. 1 seed, followed by Auburn, Arizona and Kansas. The No. 2 seeds were Baylor, Kentucky, Purdue and Duke. Line three had Villanova, Texas Tech, Tennessee and Illinois and line four had Wisconsin, UCLA, Providence and Texas.

A few changes since that list in today's bracket, including the aforementioned swapping of Texas Tech and Duke. Wisconsin is now a No. 3 seed following their win over Michigan (despite the ugly aftermath), dropping Tennessee to a No. 4 after their 10-point loss at Arkansas on Saturday.

The top line remains the same, but Auburn is now the fourth No. 1 seed, behind Arizona and Kansas. Selection committee chair Tom Burnett (Commissioner of the Southland Conference) said "The margin between Gonzaga and Auburn is razor thin, as is the gap between Auburn and Arizona. The committee felt Gonzaga's wins over Texas Tech, UCLA and Texas, which were all a part of today's top 16, were enough reason to keep Gonzaga as the overall top team."

Burnett also mentioned Auburn's two overtime losses and slightly better road record and strength of schedule as keeping Auburn ahead of Arizona. Well, that gap was lost after Auburn lost over the weekend to Florida, who sits among out first four out today. Still, Auburn is on the top line and winning the SEC regular-season title would go a long way towards keeping them there on Selection Sunday.

On the bubble, Indiana has lost five straight and is now playing in Dayton in today's bracket in the First Four. And you know what tends to happen with bubble teams and weak non-conference schedules. Indiana is banking on their top-40 overall schedule pushing them in, but there is now very little room for error for the Hoosiers. 

Indiana finishes home against Maryland, at Minnesota, home against Rutgers and at Purdue before the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis.

And despite the ugly scene we saw during the postgame handshakes of Wisconsin-Michigan, the Wolverines are still in the field but also in Dayton. Michigan has strong computer numbers, including the No. 4 strength of schedule and three Quad 1 wins. 

We know now they will be without head coach Juwan Howard for the rest of the regular season but he will be back for the Big Ten tournament. Michigan's next four games are all at home and all present tremendous opportunities for Michigan (Rutgers, Illinois, Michigan State, Iowa) before finishing at Ohio State. If Michigan can score a couple wins here with Howard, they'll give themselves a little bit of breathing room heading to Indy in a couple weeks.

Memphis and San Diego State round out the Last Four In group in today's bracket. BYU, SMU, Oklahoma and Florida are the First Four Out.

Let's now take a look at the full bracket. And once again, a major shoutout to some great resources that help me put this bracket together: WarrenNolan.com, Bracketologists.com and HeatCheckCBB.com for their incredible distance chart.



Last Four Byes: San Francisco, North Carolina, Creighton, Rutgers
Last Four In: Michigan, Indiana, Memphis, San Diego State
First Four Out: BYU, SMU, Oklahoma, Florida
Next Four Out: Belmont, Oregon, Dayton, Virginia Tech
Also under consideration: Kansas State, Mississippi State, VCU, St. Bonaventure, Virginia, Saint Louis, UAB

Conference Breakdown

Big Ten - 9
Big East - 7
Big 12 - 6
SEC - 6
ACC - 5
Mountain West - 4
Pac-12 - 3
West Coast - 3
American - 2
One-bid leagues - 23




Wednesday, February 16, 2022

We're back...it's about time

 After a long time away, I'm finally posting my first bracket of 2022, in between all my travels to the Senior Bowl and Shrine Bowl and, soon, the NFL Scouting Combine.

I just wanted to get back on here with a quick first update and will continue to scrub the field and update as we enter the final weeks before Selection Sunday on March 13 and even the committee's initial top 16 reveal this Saturday.

Before we get into the bracket, a quick shoutout to a few incredible resources that help make building these brackets possible, including WarrenNolan.com and Bracketologists.com.

And of course, the always incredible BracketMatrix.com and their wonderful work tracking bracketologists.

So without further ado, my initial 2022 bracket.


Last Four Byes: San Francisco, Indiana, Memphis, Iowa State
Last Four In: BYU, Oklahoma, Creighton, North Carolina
First Four Out: Oregon, Michigan, San Diego State, Florida
Next Four Out: Belmont, UAB, Kansas State, Rutgers

Conference Breakdown:

Big 12 - 7
Big East - 7
Big Ten - 7
SEC - 6
ACC - 5
West Coast - 4
American - 3
Mountain West - 3
Pac-12 - 3
One-bid leagues - 23