Friday Bracketology

As we enter the final weekend of January and flip the calendar to February, here's a look at the latest bracket projection. (Link to Bracket Matrix)

Last Four Byes: Oklahoma State, Xavier, Seton Hall, Texas A&M
Last Four In: George Washington, Miami (FL), Old Dominion, Ole Miss
First Four Out: Kansas State, Davidson, St. Mary's, St. John's
Next Four Out: Syracuse, Temple, North Carolina State, Tennessee

Conference Rundown:

Big 12 - 7
ACC - 6
Big East - 6
Big Ten - 6
SEC - 6
American Athletic - 3
Atlantic 10 - 3
Mountain West - 3
Pac 12 - 3
Conference USA - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
One-bid leagues - 21

Notable Games Saturday (all times EST):

Duke at Virginia, 7:00, ESPN
North Carolina at Louisville, 4:00, ESPN
Kansas State at Kansas, 2:00, ESPN
Wichita State at Northern Iowa, 4:00, ESPN2
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State, 8:00, ESPN2
Texas at Baylor, 6:00, ESPN2
Providence at St. John's, 12:00, FOX
Xavier at Seton Hall, 12:00, FOX Sports 1
Davidson at St. Joseph's, 12:00, NBC Sports Network
Green Bay at Cleveland State, 2:00, ESPN3
Vanderbilt at Texas A&M, 4:30, SEC Network
George Washington at Rhode Island, 4:00
Ole Miss at Missouri, 4:00, ESPN3
Pepperdine at St. Mary's, 6:00
Florida Atlantic at Old Dominion, 7:00

Notable Games Sunday:

Utah at USC, 2:30, ESPNU
Miami (FL) at Florida State, 12:30, ESPNU
Michigan at Michigan State, 1:00, CBS

Enjoy the college games and, of course, Super Bowl XLIX and I'll see you Monday for the first bracket of February.

Post-Coach K's 1,000th win Bracketology

I'd like to start this post by sending my congratulations to Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski on reaching 1,000 career wins after Duke's 77-68 win over St. John's Sunday. The historic win may not have come at Cameron Indoor Arena, but it's still a very nice consolation prize to do so at Madison Square Garden. Coach K now joins Pat Summitt as the only coaches in Men's or Women's College Basketball to win 1,000 games (Summitt ended her career with 1,098 career victories).

As for the bracket, Duke is just below the top line today as Kentucky, Virginia, Gonzaga and Kansas make up the No. 1 seeds. Kansas gets the edge thanks to a 7-2 record against the RPI top-50 versus 5-2 for Duke, as well as having the No. 1 RPI and No. 2 non-conference strength of schedule.

More on the field after we take a look at the full bracket. (Note: Link to Bracket Matrix)

Last Four Byes:Oklahoma State, George Washington, Michigan State, Old Dominion
Last Four In: Miami (FL), Texas A&M, Washington, Ole Miss
First Four Out: St. John's, Xavier, North Carolina State, Illinois
Next Four Out: Temple, Davidson, Syracuse, Connecticut

Conference Rundown:

Big 12 - 7
ACC - 6
Big Ten - 6
SEC - 6
Big East - 5
Pac 12 - 4
American Athletic - 3
Atlantic 10 - 3
Mountain West - 3
Conference USA - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
One-bid leagues - 21

Thanks to their recent runs, Miami (FL), Texas A&M and Ole Miss move into the bracket, currently slotted in the First Four, joined by a slipping Washington team. Solid RPIs, good wins and good records away from home helped give the Hurricanes, Aggies and Rebels the last few spots in the field. St. John's, Xavier, North Carolina State and Illinois are the first four out.

The Red Storm have struggled a bit since conference play started, sitting at 2-4 with pretty much just the Providence win to hang their hat on, as St. Mary's is barely in the top 50. Xavier does have three top-50 wins, but they also have three losses outside the top 100, including two against non-conference opponents (UTEP and Auburn). The Musketeers also have an ugly 2-7 record away from home. A poor record away from home is also what's keeping NC State out, as they are just 1-4 away from Raleigh. Add that to a 1-7 record against the top-50 and Mark Gottfried is on the outside looking in. Can they sneak in just like last season?

I'll post again on Friday as I will begin posting twice a week up until Championship Week, where as always, I will post each day leading up to Selection Sunday. So buckle up. The Road to the Final Four is underway with less than two months to Selection Sunday.

Virginia Closing Gap On Kentucky; Gonzaga Moves Onto Top Line

A new team sits behind the two current kings and a little bit of bubble talk. We'll discuss that after we take a look at the full bracket.

Last Four Byes: George Washington, Colorado State, St. John's, Indiana
Last Four In: North Carolina State, SMU, LSU, Washington
First Four Out: Illinois, Xavier, Miami (FL), Temple
Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Connecticut, BYU, Alabama

Conference Rundown:

ACC - 7
Big 12 - 7

Big East - 6
Big Ten - 6
Pac 12 - 4
SEC - 4
Atlantic 10 - 3
Mountain West - 3
American Athletic - 3
Conference USA - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
One-bid Leagues - 21

One of those changes is Gonzaga moving up to the top line, thanks to their play so far and other top-seed contenders slipping a bit, namely Duke with their recent two-game losing streak and Villanova just getting whacked by Georgetown. The Zags are third on the seed list, behind Kentucky and Virginia. Kansas (No. 2 in the RPI and having the No. 2 non-conference strength of schedule) rounds out the group of No. 1 seeds in today's bracket.

 The debate between Kentucky and Virginia for the overall No. 1 seed is getting a bit interesting. As of today, they both sit at 17-0 and are among the top three in RPI (Kentucky is No. 1, Virginia is No. 3). Both have a top-15 non-conference strength of schedule, according to live-rpi.com. The Wildcats are 5-0 away from Lexington while the Cavaliers are 8-0 away from Charlottesville. Both are 10-0 against the RPI Top 100. But the main kicker tilting the arrow in Kentucky's favor is that nine of their wins are against the top 50 while Virginia only has five.

However, Buffalo, Ole Miss and Alabama are just inside the top 50, so those nine wins can quickly become just six for Kentucky.

Both have a very nice collection of wins at the top. Kentucky has the 32-point blowout win over Kansas back in November at the Champions Classic, while Virginia posted a 17-point win at VCU (who is No. 4 in the RPI). Virginia also has a road non-conference victory over Maryland on December 3 at the Big Ten/ACC Challenge and a home win against George Washington. Kentucky won at Louisville and scored home wins against North Carolina, Texas and Providence.

So as you can see, it's a close race right now. And there is still plenty of time left. Of course, this could all be a moot point because these teams aren't really competing for the same region. Cleveland is the closer region for Kentucky and the Cavaliers would likely be slotted in Syracuse. But it's still something to keep an eye on as we head towards February and, eventually, March.

As for the other side of the bracket, a team that is interesting to evaluate is SMU. They are 0-4 against the top 50, but after taking a closer look at their resume, they have very good computer numbers with an RPI rating of 19th and having played the 20th-best non-conference schedule. This after their non-conference schedule last season kept them out of the field. They don't have any signature wins yet but they are 5-4 against the top 100, including a win over Temple. And they don't have any bad losses, either, which is important. Let's see if they can pick up a key win, or at least, stay the course.

Defending champion Connecticut is currently on the outside at 9-7. They do have a neutral-court win over Dayton, but they are just 3-7 against the top 100 and sit 69th in the RPI. If they can pick up a few more good wins, which are hard to come by in the AAC, they can sneak back in. They still have another game against Cincinnati, whom they've already defeated, a game against a good Tulsa team and two games against fellow AAC-bubble team SMU. Win those and do well in the conference tournament and Kevin Ollie's team may get a chance to defend their title.

Friendly reminder to check out the Bracket Matrix and support the great work done there.

And There Were Two...Unbeaten Teams

Another week, another team falling from the ranks of the of the unbeaten. Duke (14-1) suffered their first loss of the season in Raleigh as the Blue Devils fell 87-75 to North Carolina State, leaving 15-0 Kentucky and 15-0 Virginia as the only remaining undefeated teams in Division 1. As such, the Wildcats and Cavaliers remain as the top two teams in today's bracket. Duke still sits at No. 3 thanks to their collection of wins and Villanova remains at No. 4. Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga and Kansas sit on the No. 2 line.

NC State moved into the last spot in the bracket with their win. Now they just need to win some games away from home, as they are currently 0-3 in road/neutral games. But a solid RPI and strong non-conference rank are key right now for the Wolfpack. Joining them in Dayton at the moment are Syracuse, Michigan State and Indiana. Georgetown, BYU, SMU and Oklahoma State are right on the doorstep.

Here now is today's bracket.

Last Four Byes: Washington, Temple, Illinois, Xavier
Last Four In: Syracuse, Michigan State, Indiana, North Carolina State
First Four Out: Georgetown, BYU, SMU, Oklahoma State
Next Four Out: Connecticut, Georgia Tech, UNLV, Alabama

Conference Rundown:

ACC - 7
Big Ten - 7
Big East - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac-12 - 4
SEC - 4
Atlantic 10 - 3
Mountain West - 3
American Athletic - 3
Conference-USA - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
One-bid leagues - 21

One piece of news that will affect the bubble, and that's the news that Syracuse freshman Chris McCullough, who averaged 9.3 points per game and about two blocks and two steals per game, suffered a torn ACL and is out for the rest of the season. Unfortunate for the Orange. We'll see in the coming weeks how this affects the team, but for now, they are in the field, hoping to continue to build on their 3-0 ACC start.

And as always, check out the Bracket Matrix. The guy is amazing with updating everything with so many brackets, so show him some love.

Wild Bill's Bracketology: Kentucky, Virginia, Duke and Villanova Head the First Bracket of 2015

Happy New Year, everyone. With the calendar flipped to 2015 and conference play underway, now is a good time to get back in the swing of things with tournament projections. It has been a crazy season so far, with upsets galore and some of the perennial top programs struggling and not even in our current projections (see: Michigan State and Florida). Because of this, some other teams not normally heard from have stepped up, including some towards the top of the bracket, namely Utah sitting as a No. 3 in today's projection and Seton Hall as a No. 6.

So without further ado, here is the first bracket of the 2015 calendar year. Kentucky, Virginia, Duke and Villanova are your first set of No. 1 seeds.

Last Four Byes: Providence, Cincinnati, Iowa, Xavier
Last Four In: BYU, Syracuse, Illinois, Georgetown
First Four Out: SMU, Georgia Tech, UNLV, North Carolina State
Next Four Out: Tennessee, Green Bay, Boise State, Michigan State

Conference Rundown:
Big East - 8
ACC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Big Ten - 5
Pac-12 - 4
SEC - 4
Atlantic 10 - 3
Mountain West - 3
West Coast - 3
American Athletic - 2
Conference USA - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
One-bid Leagues - 20


Always remember, it's only January. This is very fluid and will absolutely change throughout the course of the next two months. And for those new to this blog, welcome, glad to have you on board, and note that I do projections based on a "if the season ended today" perspective. I use the current RPI rankings (I know, I know, the RPI is so out-dated, but it still is more or less the bible for the NCAA Selection Committee so we have to use it) and other current computer numbers to build the seed list and consequently, the bracket. This is also why you'll see a team like DePaul in the bracket, as they are the only 3-0 team in the Big East, therefore they are currently in the automatic qualifier. This is a good way to show you how bids can be stolen and the at-large field can shrink quickly.

I decided on Villanova as the last No. 1 over Wisconsin due to their collection of wins. The neutral-court win over VCU is one of five wins the Wildcats currently have over the RPI top-50, compared to three for the Badgers. Plus, VCU is currently in the top five of the RPI, making the win look even better. Of course, VCU's RPI is helped largely by the fact that they played the toughest non-conference schedule in the nation. But as mentioned before, RPI is still important in this process, so that is a big boost for Jay Wright's club.

As for the bubble, teams like BYU and Georgetown got the nod thanks to their respective non-conference schedules. If you've followed past selections closely, you'll notice teams that schedule tough non-conference schedules are generally rewarded for doing so, while those with weak schedules are typically punished (see: 2014 SMU). Syracuse got off to a slow start but picked up a nice win over Georgia Tech on the road to start 2-0 in ACC play. They also have a road win over Iowa to help their cause. They'll need to do some more damage in conference play, but at least Jim Boeheim's club looks like they might be starting to right the ship.

A lot of ball left to be played and we will continue to update the bracket throughout here in the Corral. And yes, I am once again a part of the Bracket Matrix. For those who are new, the Matrix compares bracketologists from across the country and after the tournament field is announced, determines who was the most accurate and also ranks everyone based on how well they projected the field. It's also a nice way to see many other bracket thoughts. And yes, the big boys Joe Lunardi of ESPN and Jerry Palm of CBS (the two guys who basically inspired me to begin projecting brackets five years ago) are a part of this bracket, as well as my good friends Chris Dobbertean of SB Nation and Dave Ommen of Bracketville.

Until next time, take care everyone. We'll be back for more bracket fun.