Florida moves up to top line entering season's final weekend

As we discussed earlier in the week, the race for the final No. 1 seed is tight. Alabama entered Wednesday's action as our final team on the top line, but ever so slightly ahead of Tennessee and Florida. 

After a big win in Tuscaloosa for the Gators and Tennessee falling at Ole Miss, the Gators enter the final weekend of the regular season as the last No. 1 seed, headlining the West region. Tennessee, Alabama and even Michigan State all have a chance to overtake the Gators.

Auburn and Duke are locks for a No. 1 seed and Houston is within striking distance of being in the same category after cruising to the Big 12 regular season title. Florida finishing second in the SEC could carry some weight on Selection Sunday.

On the other side of the bracket, Oklahoma scored a huge victory over Missouri and may have given themselves some breathing room, given how this bubble is shaping up. A huge bubble showdown against Texas awaits on Saturday. A loss for the Longhorns will be a huge blow to their tournament hopes.

Here's the full bracket entering the weekend.

Note: BYU (true No. 8 seed) was moved up two seed lines to adhere to their rule of no athletic events on Sundays. Oregon (true No. 6) and UCLA (true No. 7) were moved down one line each in corresponding moves.

Last Four Byes: West Virginia, Georgia, San Diego State, Arkansas
Last Four In: Oklahoma, Ohio State, Indiana, Nebraska
First Four Out: Texas, North Carolina, Xavier, Boise State
Next Four Out: SMU, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, George Mason

Conference Breakdown

SEC - 13
Big Ten - 11
Big 12 - 8
Big East - 4
ACC - 3
Mountain West - 3
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 24

As always, check out the Bracket Matrix to see how this bracket stacks up to the rest of the bracketology world.

Ugly bubble as season enters final week

Conference tournaments are underway and the rest of the regular season is entering its final days. Selection Sunday is almost here and the selection committee will have quite the task on their hands. This is one of the roughest bubbles we've seen in quite some time. This is becoming a very top-heavy bracket, even as far down as the top eight seed lines. After that, it's anyone's guess.

At the top of the bracket, even with the loss Tuesday to Texas A&M, Auburn remains the overall No. 1 seed. The Tigers have a staggering 15 Quad 1 wins. The only other team with at least ten is Michigan State. Auburn is also the only team with 20+ wins between Quads 1 and 2 combined.

Duke and Houston should feel pretty comfortable as well on the top line. Duke is now No. 1 in BPI, KenPom and Torvik. Houston is top three in all three. The Blue Devils and Cougars are also top three, along with Auburn, in Strength of Record. Houston also boasts a 9-0 road record.

The race for the final No. 1 seed is looking like a three-horse SEC race between Alabama, Tennessee and Florida. The Corral is giving the Tide the slight edge over the Vols. Yes, Tennessee has a head-to-head win over Alabama, but Alabama has the better ranks in the resume categories [KPI, Strength of Record (SOR) and Wins Above Bubble (WAB)]. Alabama has eight Quad 1A wins to Tennessee's six and 17 Quad 1/2 wins to the Vols' 14. Florida has the road win over No. 1 Auburn. This can, and will, change. Alabama hosts Florida and Tennessee visits Ole Miss Wednesday. Saturday's regular-season finale sees Alabama at Auburn, South Carolina at Tennessee and Ole Miss at Florida.

Now for that bubble. This is quite the collection of resumes at the cut line. You can make a case for or against any team here. Entering Wednesday, the last four in feature plenty of Big Ten teams. Ohio State, Oklahoma, Indiana and Nebraska are currently projected for Dayton. The first four out are Texas, North Carolina, Xavier and Boise State. SMU, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, George Mason and Villanova are also hanging around.

The Buckeyes, even at 17-13, are helped by having top-40 numbers in BPI, KenPom and Torvik. A lot of the bubble teams are very close in SOR and WAB.

North Carolina and SMU really need to do work in the ACC Tournament. The Tar Heels can pull a big rabbit out of their hat if they can beat Duke Saturday. SMU has zero Quad 1 wins. Both teams may need to win multiple games, and have their be against quality opponents.

Last Four Byes: West Virginia, Georgia, San Diego State, Arkansas
Last Four In: Ohio State, Oklahoma, Indiana, Nebraska
First Four Out: Texas, North Carolina, Xavier, Boise State
Next Four Out: SMU, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, George Mason

Conference Breakdown

SEC - 13
Big Ten - 11
Big 12 - 8
Big East - 4
ACC - 3
Mountain West - 3
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 24

As always, check out the Bracket Matrix to see how this bracket stacks up to the rest of the bracketology world.

Final 2024 bracket

This was a bit of a whirlwind last few months for me personally, so I really didn't get to do much bracket work. But I wasn't going to let the year go by without actually posting a bracket before the Selection Show, so here it is. Such an interesting bubble this year and actually plenty of good teams will be left out tonight. It also didn't help that North Carolina State and Oregon both stole bids on Saturday night. In fact, with how the bubble shrank, we may see First Four games for a 10 seed.

With that, I went with Seton Hall as the last team in. The Pirates have a win over UConn and with the Huskies garnering the overall No. 1 seed, that may be just enough of a push for Seton Hall to get in. It left teams like Oklahoma, Virginia and Indiana State out. I would personally love to see the Sycamores get in but the crowd got too tight for their liking. 

Here is my bracket and remember to check out Bracket Matrix to see how I stacked up.

Final 2023 Bracket

It's been another very interesting year in college hoops and while I didn't get a chance to build as many brackets as in other years, I'm glad I was able to get a few in and, most importantly, the final one here on Selection Sunday.

The last few spots in the field were very difficult to decide on, but in the end, the nods went to North Carolina State and Arizona State over teams such as Clemson, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma State.

The Wolfpack have no bad losses, which is usually key for a tournament resume. They did only end up with one Quad 1 victory but it's one that looks much better today as it was a home win over the ACC tournament champions Duke. A home win over the No. 1 seed Miami also helps their cause as does a key bubble win over Vanderbilt. Who would have thought that win could potentially pay huge dividends for the Pack?

As for Arizona State, having a winning record on the road as a bubble team should be a good look in the committee's eyes and the Sun Devils went 7-6 in true road games and 5-1 on neutral floors, including a key win over USC in the Pac-12 quarterfinals and what is now an important non-conference win over Creighton, one of the better non-conference wins among the bubble teams.

Clemson and Vanderbilt made strong pushes late, but Clemson was a very weak non-conference schedule, though they did beat Penn State which became a better win. If they get left out, they can point to their three losses to sub-200 NET teams including Louisville which was sub-300.

As for Vanderbilt. they also had some rough losses to overcome, though not nearly as bad as Clemson. Their best non-conference win was Pittsburgh, but they did lose to NC State and lost in conference play to LSU, who was the punching bag of the SEC this season.

And with Oklahoma State, it's just tough to see them getting in at 18-15, even with having six Quad 1 wins. But they did lose 12 such games, so it's not like they didn't have opportunities for more. In fact, of their 12 Q1 losses, only four were by single digits. And their best non-conference win? Sam Houston State. No disrespect to the Bearkats, but they're not exactly a team the committee will praise the Cowboys for winning against.

Now, would it be surprising for any of those three to get in? No. That's why they're bubble teams. You can pick apart all of these resumes and make a case for or against. That's why they're bubble teams. In the end, the Wolfpack and Sun Devils sneak through and into Dayton for the First Four.

So with all that being said, let's take a look at the final bracket for this season and hope it does well in the Bracket Matrix.

Last Four Byes: USC, Mississippi State, Utah State, Providence

Last Four In: Pittsburgh, Rutgers, North Carolina State, Arizona State

First Four Out: Clemson, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma State, Nevada

Next Four Out: North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon

Conference Breakdown:

Big Ten - 9

SEC - 8

Big 12 - 7

ACC - 5

Big East - 5

Pac-12 - 4

Mountain West - 3

American - 2

West Coast - 2

One-bid leagues - 23

Championship Saturday update

 As we wade through the busy slate of championship games Saturday, here's an updated look at the NCAA Tournament projections.

Last Four Byes: Rutgers, Mississippi State, Utah State, Providence

Last Four In: Penn State, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Clemson

First Four Out: North Carolina State, Oklahoma State, Nevada, Arizona State

Championship Week Tuesday bracket

 The final weekend of the regular season brought us our first official tickets punched to the NCAA Tournament as well as a change at the top of the bracket. UCLA now slides in as the last No. 1 seed with Purdue as the top No. 2 seed. This week will be the final push for those teams — and perhaps a team like Texas — to make their final case to join Kansas, Alabama and Houston on the top line come Sunday.

Seven teams are officially in the field:

Fairleigh Dickinson (Northeast)

SE Missouri State (Ohio Valley)

UNC Asheville (Big South)

Drake (Missouri Valley)

Kennesaw State (Atlantic Sun)

Furman (Southern)

Louisiana (Sun Belt)

Four more teams will join the list tonight. Here are Tuesday's matchups to determine those spots

West Coast: Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s 

Horizon League: Northern Kentucky vs. Cleveland State

Colonial: UNC Wilmington vs. Charleston

Summit: North Dakota State vs. Oral Roberts

There’s one more championship game Tuesday as Fairleigh Dickinson battles Merrimack for the Northeast title. But with Merrimack ineligible for the NCAA Tournament, FDU is dancing win or lose.

So with that, here’s your updated bracket. And remember to check out the Bracket Matrix. 

Finally, the first bracket of 2023

It almost didn't happen. I almost didn't even get to make a bracket this season. But we finally got around to it. We have our first bracket for 2023, just in time for the start of conference tournament action on Monday.

Let's just jump right into it and take a look at the bracket. And be sure to check out all the other great bracket work over at Bracket Matrix.

Last Four Byes: Boise State, Nevada, Memphis, USC

Last Four In: Wisconsin, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State

First Four Out: North Carolina, Arizona State, Penn State, Clemson

Next Four Out: Utah State, Charleston, Michigan, Texas Tech