Ugly bubble as season enters final week

Conference tournaments are underway and the rest of the regular season is entering its final days. Selection Sunday is almost here and the selection committee will have quite the task on their hands. This is one of the roughest bubbles we've seen in quite some time. This is becoming a very top-heavy bracket, even as far down as the top eight seed lines. After that, it's anyone's guess.

At the top of the bracket, even with the loss Tuesday to Texas A&M, Auburn remains the overall No. 1 seed. The Tigers have a staggering 15 Quad 1 wins. The only other team with at least ten is Michigan State. Auburn is also the only team with 20+ wins between Quads 1 and 2 combined.

Duke and Houston should feel pretty comfortable as well on the top line. Duke is now No. 1 in BPI, KenPom and Torvik. Houston is top three in all three. The Blue Devils and Cougars are also top three, along with Auburn, in Strength of Record. Houston also boasts a 9-0 road record.

The race for the final No. 1 seed is looking like a three-horse SEC race between Alabama, Tennessee and Florida. The Corral is giving the Tide the slight edge over the Vols. Yes, Tennessee has a head-to-head win over Alabama, but Alabama has the better ranks in the resume categories [KPI, Strength of Record (SOR) and Wins Above Bubble (WAB)]. Alabama has eight Quad 1A wins to Tennessee's six and 17 Quad 1/2 wins to the Vols' 14. Florida has the road win over No. 1 Auburn. This can, and will, change. Alabama hosts Florida and Tennessee visits Ole Miss Wednesday. Saturday's regular-season finale sees Alabama at Auburn, South Carolina at Tennessee and Ole Miss at Florida.

Now for that bubble. This is quite the collection of resumes at the cut line. You can make a case for or against any team here. Entering Wednesday, the last four in feature plenty of Big Ten teams. Ohio State, Oklahoma, Indiana and Nebraska are currently projected for Dayton. The first four out are Texas, North Carolina, Xavier and Boise State. SMU, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, George Mason and Villanova are also hanging around.

The Buckeyes, even at 17-13, are helped by having top-40 numbers in BPI, KenPom and Torvik. A lot of the bubble teams are very close in SOR and WAB.

North Carolina and SMU really need to do work in the ACC Tournament. The Tar Heels can pull a big rabbit out of their hat if they can beat Duke Saturday. SMU has zero Quad 1 wins. Both teams may need to win multiple games, and have their be against quality opponents.

Last Four Byes: West Virginia, Georgia, San Diego State, Arkansas
Last Four In: Ohio State, Oklahoma, Indiana, Nebraska
First Four Out: Texas, North Carolina, Xavier, Boise State
Next Four Out: SMU, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, George Mason

Conference Breakdown

SEC - 13
Big Ten - 11
Big 12 - 8
Big East - 4
ACC - 3
Mountain West - 3
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 24

As always, check out the Bracket Matrix to see how this bracket stacks up to the rest of the bracketology world.