Showing posts with label Bracketology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bracketology. Show all posts

Sunday, March 12, 2017

Selection Sunday Is Here

We finally made it to another Selection Sunday. Just hours separate us from finally seeing the field of 68. As we enter the final six games before the selection show, here's your next-to-last bracket of the season.


Last Four Byes: Xavier, Vanderbilt, Providence, Wake Forest
Last Four In: Marquette, USC, Kansas State, Rhode Island
Next Three Out: Illinois State, Syracuse, Texas-Arlington

Conference Breakdown

ACC - 9
Big Ten - 7
Big East - 7
Big 12 - 6
SEC - 5
Pac-12 - 4
Atlantic 10 - 3
American - 2
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 23

And here is today's championship schedule.

Ivy League Championship

No. 1 Princeton vs. No. 3 Yale, 12:00, ESPN

Atlantic 10 Championship

No. 2 VCU vs. No. 4 Rhode Island, 12:30, CBS

SEC Championship

No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 3 Arkansas, 1:00, ESPN

Sun Belt Championship

No. 4 Texas State vs, No. 6 Troy, 2:00, ESPN2

Big Ten Championship

No. 2 Wisconsin vs. No. 8 Michigan, 3:00, CBS

AAC Championship

No. 1 SMU vs. No. 2 Cincinnati, 3:15, ESPN

Selection Show starts at 6:00 on CBS so expect my final bracket around 5:30. Enjoy the games today.

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Championship Week Saturday

It's the busiest day of Championship Week as 14 conferences crown their champions today and 13 automatic bids are handed out since Texas Southern has claimed the SWAC auto-bid by virtue of Alcorn State being ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. A rundown of all the championship games follows the bracket.




Last Four Byes: Xavier, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, USC
Last Four In: Providence, Marquette, Kansas State, Rhode Island
First Six Out: Illinois State, Illinois, California, Indiana, Iowa, Syracuse

Conference Breakdown

ACC - 9
Big Ten - 7
Big East - 7
Big 12 - 6
SEC - 5
Pac-12 - 4
Atlantic 10 - 3
American - 2
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 23

America East Championship

No. 3 Albany at No. 1 Vermont, 11:00 a.m., ESPN2

ACC Championship

No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 5 Duke, 9:00, ESPN

Big 12 Championship

No. 2 West Virginia vs. No. 4 Iowa State, 6:00, ESPN

Big East Championship

No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 6 Creighton, 5:30, FOX

Big Sky Championship

No. 1 North Dakota vs. No. 3 Weber State, 8:30, ESPNU

Big West Championship

No. 1 UC Irvine vs. No. 2 UC Davis, 11:30, ESPN2

Conference USA Championship

No. 1 Middle Tennessee vs. No. 6 Marshall, 8:30, CBSSN

Pac-12 Championship

No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Arizona, 11:00, ESPN

MAC Championship

No. 1 Akron vs. No. 6 Kent State, 7:30, ESPN2

Mountain West Championship

No. 1 Nevada vs. No. 2 Colorado State, 6:00, CBS

MEAC Championship

No. 1 North Carolina Central vs. No. 2 Norfolk State, 1:00, ESPN2

Southland Championship

No. 1 New Orleans vs. No. 2 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, 9:30, ESPN2

SWAC Championship

No. 1 Texas Southern vs. No. 2 Alcorn State, 6:30, ESPNU

WAC Championship

No. 1 Cal State Bakersfield vs. No. 2 New Mexico State, 11:00, ESPNU

AAC Semifinals

No. 1 SMU vs. No. 4 UCF, 3:00, ESPN2
No. 2 Cincinnati vs. No. 6 Connecticut, 5:00, ESPN2

Atlantic 10 Semifinals

No. 4 Rhode Island vs. No. 9 Davidson, 1:00, CBSSN
No. 2 VCU vs. No. 3 Richmond, 3:30, CBSSN

Big Ten Semifinals

No. 4 Minnesota vs. No. 8 Michigan, 1:00, CBS
No. 2 Wisconsin vs. No. 6 Northwestern, 3:30, CBS

Ivy League Semifinals

No. 1 Princeton vs. No. 4 Penn, 1:30, ESPNU
No. 2 Harvard vs. No. 3 Yale, 4:00, ESPNU

Sun Belt Semifinals

No. 1 Texas-Arlington vs. No. 4 Texas State, 12:30, ESPN3
No. 2 Georgia State vs. No. 6 Troy, 3:00, ESPN3

SEC Semifinals

No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 5 Alabama, 1:00, ESPN
No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 7 Vanderbilt, 3:25, ESPN


Friday, March 10, 2017

Championship Week Friday

It was a great day for Big 12 bubble teams, while at the same time a not-so-great day for Big Ten bubble teams. We'll discuss that and more after a look at the updated bracket, which has plenty of changes.


Last Four Byes: Xavier, Wake Forest, USC, Providence
Last Four In: Marquette, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Rhode Island
First Four Out: Illinois State, Illinois, California, Indiana
Next Six Out: Iowa, Syracuse, Georgia, TCU, Ole Miss, Houston

Conference Breakdown

ACC - 9
Big Ten - 7
Big East - 7
Big 12 - 6
SEC - 5
Pac-12 - 4
Atlantic 10 - 3
American - 2
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 23

On the Big 12 side, Kansas State scored a huge win over Baylor to advance to the Big 12 semifinals where they'll meet West Virginia. The Wildcats were already sitting just above the cut line and beating a top-ten RPI team for the second time, this time in the conference tournament, with this at-large pool, might just be enough to push them into the field, even if they have to start in Dayton. This gives K-State four top-50 wins and six top-100 wins. The negative is the weak non-conference schedule, ranked 227th, though it would gain some luster if Colorado State wins the Mountain West tournament,

TCU kept their at-large hopes alive by upsetting top-seed Kansas, who was without a suspended Josh Jackson. This was the Frogs' third top-50 win but only their fourth top-100 win. To put their entire resume in perspective, they have just one more top-100 win than they do sub-100 losses, four versus three, as they've lost at Texas Tech and Oklahoma and home against Auburn. TCU likely needs to win the Big 12 tournament to make the NCAA Tournament. TCU takes on Iowa State tonight in the semifinals.

As for the Big Ten, Illinois and Iowa did themselves no favors, losing badly to Michigan and Indiana, respectively. The Hawkeyes were on the outside to being with, but the Illini may have played themselves out. After beating Northwestern, the lasting memory Illinois gave is losing at Rutgers and losing by 20 to a Michigan team that didn't arrive in D.C. until three hours before tip-off and had to wear their practice jerseys for the game. The Illini look NIT-bound.

Indiana, on the other hand, has played their way back onto the bubble, though their mid-season stretch is still holding them back, despite the wins over Kansas and North Carolina. Don't forget that those wins sandwiched a bad loss against IPFW. Nebraska falling outside the RPI top-100 doesn't help matters either. The Hoosiers may be in the same position as TCU, probably needing the automatic bid to get in. They meet Wisconsin in the Big Ten quarterfinals.

Also scoring a big win and securing their spot in the field is Xavier, after they knocked off second-seeded Butler in the Big East quarterfinals. The Musketeers ended their skid at just the right time, setting up a semifinal meeting with Creighton. They're likely going to be a double-digit seed, but this should them avoid playing in Dayton next week.

Moving into the field, replacing Illinois, is Rhode Island, who was a preseason top-25 team. The Rams are still hanging their hat on their win over Cincinnati and also beat VCU at the end of the season. The sport a top-50 RPI and gained three top-100 wins thanks to George Washington and Davidson moving in. They'll play St. Bonaventure today in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals.

We're getting closer to filling out the field. Championship matchups will be determined tonight, while other conferences enter their quarterfinal round. Here's your rundown for today.

AAC Quarterfinals

No. 1 SMU vs. No. 9 East Carolina, 12:00, ESPN2
No. 4 UCF vs. No. 5 Memphis, 2:30, ESPN2
No. 2 Cincinnati vs. No. 7 Tulsa, 7:00, ESPNU
No. 3 Houston vs. No. 6 Connecticut, 9:30, ESPNU

ACC Semifinals

No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 5 Duke, 7:00, ESPN
No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Notre Dame, 9:30, ESPN

Atlantic 10 Quarterfinals

No. 1 Dayton vs. No. 9 Davidson, 12:00, NBCSN
No. 4 Rhode Island vs. No. 5 St. Bonaventure, 2:30, NBCSN
No. 2 VCU vs. No. 7 George Mason, 6:00, NBCSN
No. 3 Richmond vs. No. 6 George Washington, 8:30, NBCSN

Big 12 Semifinals

No. 4 Iowa State vs. No. 8 TCU, 7:00, ESPN2
No. 2 West Virginia vs. No. 6 Kansas State, 9:30, ESPN2

Big East Semifinals

No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 5 Seton Hall, 6:30, FS1
No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 7 Xavier, 9:00, FS1

Big Sky Semifinals

No. 1 North Dakota vs. No. 4 Idaho, 8:35
No. 2 Eastern Washington vs. No. 3 Weber State, 11:05

Big Ten Quarterfinals

No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 8 Michigan, 12:00, ESPN
No. 4 Minnesota vs. No. 5 Michigan State, 2:25, ESPN
No. 2 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 Indiana, 6:30, BTN
No. 3 Maryland vs. No. 6 Northwestern, 8:55, BTN

Big West Semifinals

No. 1 UC Irvine vs. No. 4 Long Beach State, 9:30, ESPN3
No. 2 UC Davis vs. No. 3 Cal State Fullerton, 12:00

Conference USA Semifinals

No. 1 Middle Tennessee vs. No. 4 UTEP, 12:30, CBSSN
No. 2 Louisiana Tech vs. No. 6 Marshall, 3:00, CBSSN

MAC Semifinals

No. 1 Akron vs. No. 4 Ball State, 5:30, CBSSN
No. 2 Ohio vs. No. 6 Kent State, 8:00 CBSSN

MEAC Semifinals

No. 1 North Carolina Central vs. No. 5 Maryland-Eastern Shore, 6:00, ESPN3
No. 2 Norfolk State vs. No. 11 Howard, 8:00, ESPN3

Mountain West Semifinals

No. 1 Nevada vs. No. 4 Fresno State, 10:00, CBSSN
No. 2 Colorado State vs. No. 6 San Diego State, 12:00

Pac-12 Semifinals

No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 5 California, 9:00, Pac-12 Network
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 3 UCLA, 11:30, Pac-12 Network

SEC Quarterfinals

No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 8 Georgia, 1:00, SECN
No. 4 South Carolina vs. No. 5 Alabama, 3:25, SECN
No. 2 Florida vs. No. 7 Vanderbilt. 7:00, SECN
No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 6 Ole Miss, 9:25, SECN

Southland Semifinals

No. 1 New Orleans vs. No. 5 Sam Houston State, 6:00, ESPN3
No. 2 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. No. 3 Stephen F. Austin, 8:30, ESPN3

Sun Belt Quarterfinals

No. 1 Texas-Arlington vs. No. 8 Coastal Carolina, 12:30
No. 4 Texas State vs. No. 12 Louisiana-Monroe, 3:00, ESPN3
No. 2 Georgia State vs. No. 7 Louisiana-Lafayette, 6:00, ESPN3
No. 3 Georgia Southern vs. No. 6 Troy, 8:30, ESPN3

SWAC Semifinals

No. 1 Texas Southern vs. No. 5 Grambling, 3:30
No. 2 Alcorn State vs. No. 3 Southern University, 9:30

WAC Semifinals

No. 1 Cal State Bakersfield vs. No. 4 Utah Valley, 9:00
No. 2 New Mexico State vs. No. 3 UMKC, 11:30, ESPN3

Monday, March 6, 2017

Championship Week Monday

As we enter Championship Week and the final week before Selection Sunday, four teams have officially punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. Jacksonville State (Ohio Valley), Wichita State (Missouri Valley), Winthrop (Big South) and Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun) can sit back and relax, knowing their name will be called come Sunday. Particularly Wichita State, who would've had to sweat again had they lost, though they might have looked the part for an at-large anyway. In any event, they do not have to worry, as they have the automatic bid. It's the team they defeated to win the Valley that will have to sweat out the week. More on that after the bracket.


Last Four Byes: USC, Michigan State, Xavier, Wake Forest
Last Four In: Marquette, Vanderbilt, Illinois, Kansas State
First Four Out: Iowa, Rhode Island, Illinois State, Syracuse
Next Four Out: California, Georgia, Ole Miss, TCU

Conference Breakdown

ACC - 9
Big Ten - 8
Big East - 7
Big 12 - 6
SEC - 5
Pac-12 - 4
American - 2
Atlantic 10 - 2
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 23

Both Wichita State and Illinois State had at-large cases, so it made for a dramatic final. Unfortunately for the Redbirds, they lost by 20 and now leave their fate in the committee's hands. ISU owns just one top-50 win, January 14 against Wichita State, Their only other top-100 win was back on December 3 against New Mexico. They do sit 34th on the RPI table. However, they also lost at Tulsa and at Murray State, the latter being ranked 232nd in RPI.

They're basically in the position Wichita was in last season, but you could argue the Shockers last year had a better profile than Illinois State does this year. Last year's Shockers also only had one top-50 win, but that was against a Utah team that was ranked No. 25 at the time and would eventually earn a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Their best argument may just be their record, which sits at 26-6 (actually 27-6, but their team sheet will say 26-6, as the committee does not recognize non-Division I games, as one of their wins came against D-II Ferris State), and their high RPI.

One team Illinois State will likely be up against for the final few spots is Vanderbilt. The Commodores have 14 losses. While a group of teams have gotten at-large bids with 14 losses, mostly the group of five in 2011, no 15-loss team has ever been selected by the committee. That could change this season after Vandy pulled the season sweep of Florida to not only add another big top-50 win but stay at 14 losses. A loss would have made things very difficult by already sitting at 15 losses and likely getting No. 16 in the SEC Tournament.

In fact, the possibility is there for Vanderbilt to go 3-0 against Florida if they get past Texas A&M in the SEC's second round, as the win also moved them out of the 8/9 game, avoiding Kentucky. If the Dores can indeed beat Florida for the third time, even if they lose in the semifinals, likely against Arkansas, they may, in fact, receive an at-large bid despite losing 15 games.

Another bubble team from the state of Illinois went ahead and made a mess of things for themselves. Things were going well for them. They swept Northwestern, they just beat Michigan State and they were headed to Rutgers to get to 9-9 in Big Ten play and help their cause. And they go and lose. That puts the Illini at 8-10 in the conference, but they still own three top-50 wins, including a neutral-court win over VCU. But to feel a bit safer, they may need to win a game or two in the Big Ten tournament,

A few more automatic bids are up for grabs today. Here's your full list of games for today.

Colonial Championship

No. 1 UNC Wilmington vs. No. 2 College of Charleston, 7:00

MAAC Championship

No. 3 Iona vs. No. 4 Siena, 9:00

Southern Championship

No. 1 UNC Greensboro vs. No. 3 East Tennessee State, 7:00

America East Semifinals

No. 4 New Hampshire at No. 1 Vermont, 7:00
No. 3 Albany at No. 2 Stony Brook, 7:30

Horizon Semifinals

No. 4 Northern Kentucky vs. No. 9 Youngstown State, 7:00
No. 6 Illinois-Chicago vs. No. 10 Milwaukee, 9:30

MAC First Round

No. 11 Central Michigan at No. 6 Kent State, 7:00
No. 9 Northern Illinois at No. 8 Eastern Michigan, 7:00
No. 12 Miami (OH) at No. 5 Western Michigan, 7:30
No. 10 Bowling Green at No. 7 Toledo, 8:00

MEAC First Round

No. 5 Maryland-Eastern Shore vs. No. 12 North Carolina A&T, 5:00
No. 6 Coppin State vs. No. 11 Howard, 7:00

Summit Semifinals

No. 1 South Dakota vs. No. 4 South Dakota State, 7:00
No. 3 Omaha vs. No. 7 IUPUI, 9:30

West Coast Semifinals

No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Santa Clara, 9:00
No. 2 Saint Mary's vs. No. 3 BYU, 11:30


Saturday, March 4, 2017

Final Regular Season Weekend Bracket

We've once again reached the final regular season weekend of the college basketball season. Conference tournaments are underway in the smaller conferences, with a few championship games set. The big boys wrap up their regular seasons this weekend and begin tournament play next weekend. The bracket is really starting to take shape, with plenty of movement and new teams joining the party and playing their way onto the bubble.

We'll detail some of the action after we take a look at the full bracket.


Last Four Byes: Seton Hall, Michigan State, Xavier, Providence
Last Four In: Marquette, Wake Forest, Illinois, Kansas State
First Four Out: Vanderbilt, Iowa, Rhode Island, TCU
Next Five Out: Ohio State, California, Georgia, Syracuse, Georgia Tech

Conference Breakdown

ACC - 9
Big Ten - 8
Big East - 7
Big 12 - 6
Pac-12 - 4
SEC - 4
AAC - 2
Atlantic 10 - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 22

One new team to the field is Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons grabbed a late-season signature win when they knocked off Louisville on Wednesday. That gives them two top-50 wins and they own a top-40 RPI. A win over Pittsburgh puts them at 9-9 in ACC play, which might be enough to push them into the field. Jerry Palm of CBS Sports wrote this great article about RPI and at-large bids.

One neat takeaway from this is that Cincinnati in 2006 is the only Big Six conference team to have a top-40 RPI since the formula change in 2005 and not receive an at-large bid. There's usually a surprise entrant into the field every year. Wake Forest could be that team this year.

RPI may not be the be-all, end-all, but history says a low RPI ranking will keep a team out. That's why teams like Syracuse and Georgia Tech are currently out. The Orange are 80th on the RPI table and the Yellow Jackets are 92nd. Since 2005, no team rated in the 70s or below has received an at-large bid. The two meet in what essentially amounts to an elimination game Saturday.

Poor conference records also tend to keep teams out. I wrote last week about how TCU really needed to beat either West Virginia or Kansas State. They lost both and now sit at 6-11 in the conference. That, plus an RPI in the 60s, is likely going to send the Frogs to the NIT.

This also helped make room for one of the great, late comeback stories in Illinois. The Illini have a top-60 RPI and five top-50 wins. They hold a neutral-court win over a VCU team that's top-25 in the RPI, as well as a sweep of Northwestern and, wins over Michigan and Michigan State. They are among the last four in.

A big weekend of hoops awaits us with just eight days until Selection Sunday. Here are the key games, starting with conference tournament action including the first official tournament bid being sent out.

Saturday

Ohio Valley Championship

No. 2 Tennessee-Martin vs. No. 4 Jacksonville State, 8:00, ESPN2

Colonial Quarterfinals

No. 1 UNC-Wilmington vs. No. 9 Delaware, 12:00
No. 4 William & Mary vs. No. 5 Elon, 2:30
No. 2 College of Charleston vs. No. 7 James Madison, 6:00
No. 3 Towson vs. No. 6 Northeastern, 8:30

Horizon Quarterfinals

No. 1 Oakland vs. No. 9 Youngstown State, 5:30, ESPN3
No. 2 Valparaiso vs. No. 10 Milwaukee, 8:00, ESPN3

MAAC Quarterfinals

No. 3 Iona vs. No. 6 Rider, 7:00, ESPN3
No. 4 Siena vs. No. 5 Fairfield, 9:30, ESPNU

Missouri Valley Semifinals

No. 1 Illinois State vs. No. 4 Southern Illinois, 3:30, CBSSN
No. 2 Wichita State vs. No. 6 Missouri State, 6:00, CBSSN

Northeast Semifinals

No. 3 Wagner vs. No. 4 St. Francis (PA), 12:00
No. 1 Mount St. Mary's vs. No. 7 Robert Morris, 2:00

Southern Conference Quarterfinals

No. 1 UNC-Greensboro vs. No. 9 The Citadel, 12:00, ESPN3
No. 4 Chattanooga vs. No. 5 Wofford, 2:30, ESPN3
No. 2 Furman vs. No. 7 Samford, 6:00, ESPN3
No. 3 East Tennessee State vs. No. 6 Mercer, 8:30, ESPN3

Summit Quarterfinals

No. 1 South Dakota vs. No. 8 Western Illinois, 7:00, ESPN3
No. 2 North Dakota State vs. No. 7 IUPUI, 9:30, ESPN3

West Coast Quarterfinals

No. 3 BYU vs. No. 6 Loyola-Marymount, 4:00
No. 4 Santa Clara vs. No. 5 San Francisco, 6:00
No. 1 Gonzaga vs, No, 9 Pacific, 10:00, ESPN2
No. 2 Saint Mary's vs. No. 10 Portland, 12:00 a.m.

Other games

Pittsburgh at Virginia, 12:00, ACC Network
Kentucky at Texas A&M, 12:00, CBS
Villanova at Georgetown, 12:00
Illinois at Rutgers, 12:00, ESPNU
Providence at St. John's, 12:00
Indiana at Ohio State, 12:00, ESPN
Texas Tech at Kansas State, 1:00, ESPNews
Notre Dame at Louisville, 2:00, CBS
California at Colorado, 2:00, Pac-12 Network
Florida at Vanderbilt, 2:00, ESPN
Georgia at Arkansas, 2:00, ESPN2
George Mason at VCU, 2:00
Michigan State at Maryland, 2:00, Big Ten Network
Xavier at DePaul, 2:00
Creighton at Marquette, 2:30
Seton Hall at Butler, 2:30
TCU at Oklahoma, 3:00, ESPNews
Georgia Tech at Syracuse, 4:00, ACCN
Miami at Florida State, 4:00, ACCN
Arizona at Arizona State, 4:00, CBS
Memphis at SMU, 4:00, ESPN2
Baylor at Texas, 4:00, ESPN
Boston College at Clemson, 4:00, ACCN
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech, 4:30, ACCN
Oregon at Oregon State, 6:00, ESPN2
Florida Atlantic at Middle Tennessee, 6:00, ESPN3
Kansas at Oklahoma State, 6:00, ESPN
Davidson at Rhode Island, 6:00
UC Davis at UC Irvine, 6:00
Washington at USC, 6:30, Pac-12 Network
Dayton at George Washington, 8:00, CBSSN
Colorado State at Nevada, 8:00, ESPN3
Duke at North Carolina, 8:00, ESPN
Texas-Arlington at Louisiana-Lafayette, 8:15, ESPN3
South Carolina at Ole Miss, 8:30, SECN
Washington State at UCLA, 10:15, ESPN

Sunday's Games

Atlantic Sun Championship

No. 1 Florida Gulf Coast vs. No. 3 North Florida, 3:00

Big South Championship

No. 1 Winthrop vs. No. 7 Campbell, 1:00

Missouri Valley Championship, 2:00, CBS

Tournament action in Colonial, Southern, MAAC, Horizon, Summit and Patriot

Other games

Cincinnati at Connecticut, 12:00
Penn State at Iowa, 1:00
Purdue at Northwestern, 4:30
Minnesota at Wisconsin, 6:00
Michigan at Nebraska, 8:00

Saturday, February 25, 2017

ACC Back to Nine Entering Penultimate Weekend

John Gillon's buzzer-beater on Wednesday against Duke not only sank the Blue Devils that night, but also moved the Orange into the field, among the last four in. Despite an RPI of 76, the Orange are 6-6 against the RPI top-50, a record that could bode very well come Selection Sunday, unless the committee knocks them for the fact that all six wins came at home. They only have two wins away from the Carrier Dome, at Clemson and at NC State. But still, six top-50 wins, with this bubble, could be hard to ignore. That could change Sunday when they visit Louisville. Win there, and the Orange all of a sudden are in much better shape.

It's a similar reason, plus a recent slump, that has TCU now on the outside looking in. The Horned Frogs only have two top-50 wins, Illinois State and Iowa State. And only one of those teams is safely in the tournament. I'll leave you to figure that out.

TCU is just 2-9 against the top 50 and only one road top-100 win out of five (Kansas State). The Frogs sit as the first team out of the field. The last team in is California. While they're just 1-7 against the top-50, that win did come on the road against USC, plus they have a neutral-court win over a Princeton team that is just outside the top 50. Just goes to show how soft the bubble is and how important conference tournaments will be.

TCU does host West Virginia Saturday. A huge chance there. A win could move them back into the field, as it would be their third top-50 win and keep alive hopes of a 9-9 conference finish, though 8-10 wouldn't completely write them off. This before a huge bubble battle with Kansas State on Wednesday, then a visit to Oklahoma to face the Sooners. This means TCU needs at least one of West Virginia or Kansas State. Lost both, and it's likely the NIT for them.

Speaking of huge bubble games, Marquette visits Providence today. The Friars won at Marquette earlier in the season and are coming off a big win at Creighton. The Golden Eagles are among the last four byes, while the Friars are currently bound for Dayton. That could switch if Ed Cooley's team pulls off the season sweep.

Two major games loom at the top of the bracket today, as well. Florida visits Kentucky in what almost amounts to a de facto SEC championship game, and a chance for the Gators to solidify a No. 2 seed, as well as UCLA against Arizona. Just like Florida, Arizona is potentially playing for a No. 2 seed, as they eye the Pac-12 crown.

A few other games of note for Sunday include Butler at Xavier and Wisconsin at Michigan State.

With that, here's your bracket update.


Last Four Byes: Michigan, Michigan State, Marquette, Wichita State
Last Four In: Providence, Syracuse, Kansas State, California
First Four Out: TCU, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Clemson
Next Four Out: Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Rhode Island

Conference Breakdown

ACC - 9
Big East - 7
Big Ten - 7
Big 12 - 6
Pac-12 - 5
SEC - 4
American - 2
Atlantic 10 - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 22

Friday, February 17, 2017

Committee Makes Their Say, Michigan Makes Their Move

Six days ago, we witnessed history. For the first time, the Selection Committee unveiled an early look at the top 16 teams and what region they would currently be slotted in.

As a refresher, here was that list.

1. Villanova
2. Kansas
3. Baylor
4. Gonzaga
5. North Carolina
6. Florida State
7. Louisville
8. Oregon
9. Arizona
10. Virginia
11. Florida
12. Kentucky
13. Butler
14. West Virginia
15. UCLA
16. Duke

This list showed that top-50 wins and RPI are still an important factor. Head-to-head was also taken into account, since the full set of information was obviously not readily available.

From this list to our current projection, the biggest change is Duke is up to No. 8 overall. The Blue Devils seemed to have finally get things together and are rolling, winning six straight to move to 9-4 in ACC, in a three-way tie for second place with Florida State and Louisville, one game behind North Carolina.

All four teams sit on the two line. Of those teams, the toughest game this weekend belongs to the Tar Heels, who host Virginia Saturday, while the Blue Devils host Wake Forest, Louisville entertains Virginia Tech and the Seminoles visit Pittsburgh.

The ACC also sees a key bubble battle pitting Miami against Clemson. The Tigers especially need this one. Already sitting with nine ACC losses, a couple more could likely relegate Brad Brownell's crew to the NIT.

One bubble that helped their case this week was Michigan, scoring a huge win over Wisconsin Thursday night. Using the numbers from CBS, the Wolverines are now 17-9, RPI 54, NCSOS 92. They have home wins in conference over Wisconsin and fellow bubble team Michigan State. But the signature win to boost them even more is that 22-point victory over SMU in the 2K Classic. The Wolverines are currently projected as a No. 10 seed. They get another shot at a signature win when they head to Williams Arena on Sunday to take on Minnesota.

A light schedule on Friday is highlighted by VCU's trip to Richmond and Cal's trek to Stanford.

Saturday sees a bevy of games with a lot of bracket implications, including Wichita State hosting Northern Iowa, Seton Hall hosting Villanova and a battle of No. 1 seeds with Kansas at Baylor.

Other games of note:

Saturday

Notre Dame at North Carolina State, 12:00, ESPN
Tulsa at Cincinnati, 12:00, ESPNU
Florida at Mississippi State, 2:00, ESPN
Kansas State at Texas, 2:00, Longhorn Network
Texas Tech at West Virginia, 2:00, ESPN2
St. Bonaventure at Dayton, 2:00, NBCSN
Colorado at Oregon, 3:00, FOX
Michigan State at Purdue, 4:00, ESPN
Pacific at Gonzaga, 4:00
Rhode Island at George Mason, 4:00, NBCSN
Ole Miss at Arkansas, 6:00, SECN
Kentucky at Georgia, 6:00, ESPN
Rutgers at Northwestern, 6:00, ESPNU
TCU at Iowa State, 6:00, ESPNews
SMU at Houston, 6:00, ESPN2
Xavier at Marquette, 8:00, CBSSN
South Carolina at Vanderbilt, 8:30, SECN
USC at UCLA, 10:00, Pac-12 Network
Saint Mary's at BYU, 10:00, ESPN2

Sunday

Maryland at Wisconsin, 1:00, CBS
DePaul at Butler, 1:30, FS1
Georgetown at Creighton, 3:30, FS1
Syracuse at Georgia Tech, 6:30, ESPNU

With that, here's your updated bracket projection.



Last Four Byes: Michigan State, Michigan, Miami, TCU
Last Four In: Wichita State, Kansas State, Clemson, Georgia Tech
First Four Out: Marquette, Providence, Wake Forest, Tennessee
Next Four Out: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, Rhode Island

Conference Breakdown

ACC - 10
Big 12 - 7
Big Ten - 7
Big East - 5
Pac-12 - 5
SEC - 4
American - 2
Atlantic 10 - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 22

Sunday, March 13, 2016

Selection Sunday: San Diego State, Temple Further Complicate Bubble

Championship Sunday provided a bit of everything. Drama, buzzer-beaters, you name it.

As mentioned yesterday. 14 teams officially punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament, some of them in grand style, like Buffalo and Cal State Bakersfield, hitting last-second shots to send them to the tournament.

Kansas, North Carolina and Oregon completed the double-dip in their respective conferences, and as a result, all now sit on the top line. And with a win today, Michigan State should also join them, though you can make a case Sparty has claimed a top seed already with how well they've played of late and their performance out of conference.

But oh that bubble continues to get more and more complicated just hours before the brackets are revealed. Temple loses to Connecticut and San Diego State, for the second year in a row, lost in the Mountain West final to a team in Fresno State that wasn't going to dance without the automatic bid.

So now we take a look at their respective profiles. Temple is now 62nd in RPI with a non-conference rank of 75. However, they were just 7-6 out of conference and their best win came against Fairleigh Dickinson. The positives are that they swept Cincinnati and Connecticut, both of whom seem to be headed to the dance, and beat SMU at home. I have the Owls just in right now.

The Aztecs, however, weren't so lucky. They sit as the first team out after going back and forth a bit on some teams.

The Aztecs are No. 40 in RPI and have the No. 2 non-conference schedule. But a 5-6 mark doesn't look good, and unfortunately for Steve Fisher's team, the Mountain West, as a whole, was surprisingly down this season. They do own a top-50 win over California on a neutral court, but only two other top-100 wins over Fresno State and Long Beach State.

I decided to move Monmouth back into the field after briefly taking them out. I still feel Monmouth should be rewarded for all those road wins and they nearly have two top-50 wins again (USC sits No. 51). I also moved Syracuse back in. Why? After going back on it and thinking about it, Syracuse does still own very good wins with Jim Boeheim on the sideline. The Orange, overall, went 5-6 against the top 50 and 8-10 against the top 100. In games where they had Boeheim, they were 5-5 and 8-8, respectively. And all five of those top 50 are against teams currently projected in the field. If the committee gives the Orange a bit of a pass on the Boeheim suspension, they have a case to be selected. We'll find out today.

Here now is your next-to-last update before my final bracket later today.


Last Four Byes: Connecticut, Michigan, St. Bonaventure, Pittsburgh
Last Four In: Syracuse, Temple, Saint Mary's, Monmouth
First Four Out: San Diego State, Wichita State, Vanderbilt, Valparaiso
Next Four Out: South Carolina, Florida, Tulsa, Georgia

Conference Rundown

ACC - 7
Big 12 - 7
Big Ten - 7
Pac-12 - 7
Big East - 5
Atlantic 10 - 4
American Athletic - 3
MAAC - 2
SEC - 2
West Coast - 2
One-bid Leagues - 22

Five championship games, including a potential bid thief on the loose, so Monmouth isn't out of the woods yet. They'll be rooting hard for Connecticut. Enjoy your Sunday and I'll talk to you later today for my final bracket.

Atlantic 10 Championship (in Brooklyn, NY)

No. 2 VCU vs. No. 4 Saint Joseph's, 1:00, CBS

SEC Championship Game (in Nashville, TN)

No. 1 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Kentucky, 1:00, ESPN

Sun Belt Championship (in New Orleans, LA)

No. 1 Arkansas-Little Rock vs. No. 2 Louisiana-Monroe, 1:00, ESPN2

American Athletic Championship (in Orlando, FL)

No. 5 Connecticut vs. No. 6 Memphis,, 3:15, ESPN

Big Ten Championship (in Indianapolis, IN)

No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 4 Purdue, 3:30, CBS

Saturday, March 12, 2016

Championship Week Saturday: Connecticut, Michigan Score Big, SEC Bubble Teams Stumble

It was a wild day for bubble teams across the country. Some scored huge victories, others flopped big time and likely lost any hope of earning a bid.

It started in Indianapolis when Kameron Chatman drilled a three-pointer with 0.2 seconds left to lift Michigan over Indiana and into the Big Ten semifinals against Purdue. That was Michigan's fourth top-50 win, third against the top 25. Two of those four wins came on neutral courts, the other being against Texas. The downside is that those four wins are also the only four top-100 wins for Michigan. But the value of this win, having no bad and with results from bubble teams elsewhere, might be enough to vault Michigan in. They sit among the last four byes.

It took four overtimes, but Connecticut prevailed over Cincinnati in the American quarters, moving the Huskies into the RPI top 50 and scoring their fourth top-50 win and seventh against the top 100. Just like Michigan, UConn has no bad losses and also won at Texas. And just like Michigan, Connecticut is currently among the last four byes.

On the flipside, it was not a good day for some bubble teams, particularly in the SEC. Florida and Alabama both lost, likely ending their hopes. The free-fall for both teams will end with them landing in the NIT.

Then we get to South Carolina. The Gamecocks lost for a third time to Georgia (who is quietly moving toward the bubble, themselves). If you take a look at South Carolina's profile now, after the Georgia loss, it is not good. The Gamecocks are left with just one top-50 win (at Texas A&M). They lost Tulsa as a top-50 win after Tulsa got blasted by Memphis (ending the hopes for Tulsa, by the way). And their non-conference schedule rank is atrocious, currently ranked 270th and the committee usually always frowns upon that. And they dipped below 60 on the RPI table, which could also be troubling.

St. Bonaventure also lost a tough one against Davidson. The Bonnies do still have a high RPI (30), won at Dayton and swept Saint Joseph's. Right now, they sit among the last four in.

Friday was also a good day if you're a fan of a mid-major team, namely Saint Mary's, Monmouth and Wichita State. Indeed, Friday's results helped moved the Shockers back into the field as other teams start to play their way out after leaving a bad taste in their last showing. The Gaels are among the last four byes while the Hawks and Shockers join St. Bonaventure and VCU among the last four in. And even Valparaiso is still alive. A strong non-conference and a win at Oregon State gives the Crusaders a pulse. Probably won't be enough, but they're at least in the discussion.

Of course, bubble teams still aren't out of the woods yet. That's because we're guaranteed to have a potential bid thief playing on Sunday in the AAC championship. Memphis blasted Tulsa right out of the tournament and Tulane upset No. 2 seed Houston to set up their semifinal date. That means one of those two teams will play on Sunday for the automatic bid and to steal a bid from a potential bubble team. As if things weren't wild enough.

At the top of the bracket, Kansas' win over Baylor to move into the Big 12 championship has pretty much wrapped up the overall No. 1 seed for the Jayhawks, even if they lost to West Virginia. Kansas now has a whopping eight wins against the RPI top 25, 14 against the top 50 and 19 against the top 100.

Villanova probably will get a top seed as well. That leaves two spots and probably four, maybe just three, teams in play. Xavier's loss to Seton Hall ended their hopes for a No. 1 seed and Buddy Hield's game-winner didn't count, giving Oklahoma seven losses. That probably drops Oklahoma to a No. 2 seed. Virginia, Michigan State and North Carolina are all in the running and even Oregon still has a chance, though their loss against UNLV might hold them back.

Virginia now has eight top-25 wins and nine against the top-50. Those wins include Villanova, West Virginia and California out of conference. Michigan State is 6-4 against the top 50, but hold that win over Kansas back in the Champions' Classic in November that could be a deciding factor. And then you have North Carolina who won the ACC regular season title and just throttled Notre Dame in the semifinal. But the Heels still have a losing record against the top 50 at 4-5. But if they defeat Virginia and get to 5-5, they would have the double-dip of the regular season and tournament titles in the ACC, which could vault them to the top line, possibly joining Virginia.

Right now, we're going with Kansas, Villanova, Virginia and Michigan State on the top line with North Carolina and Oregon behind. Oklahoma and Utah round out the twos.

Let's check out the bracket and then check out all the games today.


Last Four Byes: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Michigan, Saint Mary's
Last Four In: St. Bonaventure, Monmouth, VCU, Wichita State
First Four Out: Vanderbilt, Florida, South Carolina, Valparaiso
Next Four Out: Tulsa, Syracuse, Georgia, Alabama

Conference Rundown

Big 12 - 7
Big Ten - 7
Pac-12 - 7
ACC - 6
Big East - 5
Atlantic 10 - 4
American Athletic - 3
MAAC - 2
Missouri Valley - 2
SEC - 2
West Coast - 2
One-bid Leagues - 21

Buckle up, because today is a very busy day. 14 tournament bids are at stake today while the remaining five conferences will set up their championship games. Enjoy the games and we'll see you tomorrow for the next-to-last post here, setting up Selection Sunday with my final bracket coming later in the day Sunday.

America East Championship

No. 3 Vermont at No. 1 Stony Brook, 11:00, ESPN2

MEAC Championship (in Norfolk, VA)

No. 1 Hampton vs. No. 3 South Carolina State, 1:00, ESPN2

Conference USA Championship (in Birmingham, AL)

No. 2 Middle Tennessee vs. No. 5 Old Dominion, 2:30, FS1

Big East Championship (in New York, NY)

No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 3 Seton Hall, 5:30, FOX

Big 12 Championship (in Kansas City, MO)

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 2 West Virginia, 6:00, ESPN

Mountain West Championship (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 1 San Diego State vs. No. 2 Fresno State, 6:00, CBS

SWAC Championship (in Houston, TX)

No. 3 Jackson State vs. No. 4 Southern, 6:30, ESPN2

MAC Championship (in Cleveland, OH)

No. 1 Akron vs. No. 3 Buffalo, 7:30, ESPN2

Big Sky Championship (in Reno, NV)

No. 1 Weber State vs. No. 2 Montana, 8:45, ESPNU

ACC Championship (in Washington, D.C.)

No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 2 Virginia, 9:00, ESPN

Southland Championship (in Katy, TX)

No. 1 Stephen F. Austin vs. No. 2 Texas A&M-CC, 9:30, ESPN2

Pac-12 Championship (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Utah, 10:00, FS1

WAC Championship (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 1 New Mexico State vs. No. 2 Cal State Bakersfield, 11:00, ESPNU

Big West Championship (in Anaheim, CA)

No. 1 Hawaii vs. No. 3 Long Beach State, 11:30, ESPN2

Atlantic 10 Semifinals (in Brooklyn, NY)

No. 1 Dayton vs. No. 4 Saint Joseph's, CBS Sports
No. 2 VCU vs. No. 6 Davidson, 4:00, CBS Sports

American Athletic Semifinals (in Orlando, FL)

No. 1 Temple vs. No. 5 Connecticut, 3:00, ESPN2
No. 6 Memphis vs. No. 10 Tulane, 5:00, ESPN2

Big Ten Semifinals (in Indianapolis, IN)

No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 8 Michigan, 1:00, CBS
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Maryland, 3:30, CBS

SEC Semifinals (in Nashville, TN)

No. 1 Texas A&M vs. No. 4 LSU, 1:00, ESPN
No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 6 Georgia, 3:25, ESPN

Sun Belt Semifinals (in New Orleans, LA)

No. 1 Arkansas-Little Rock vs. No. 4 Louisiana-Lafayette, 2:00
No. 2 Louisiana-Monroe vs. No. 3 Texas-Arlington, 4:30

Friday, March 11, 2016

Championship Week Friday, Vanderbilt Starts to Sweat

Just when it looked like Vanderbilt was riding momentum and heading toward an NCAA appearance, they go ahead and suffer a bad loss at the worst possible time. The Dores lost to Tennessee in Thursday's SEC second round, marking their third sub-100 RPI loss, after also losing at Arkansas and Mississippi State. Vandy also sits at just 2-7 against the top 50, though they can get back up to four wins if Florida climbs into the top 50. Problem there is that the Gators are also fighting for a bid themselves and there are only so many bids to hand out.

Vanderbilt sits this morning among the last four in, but can easily be passed this weekend. Their case is helped by having home wins over the top two seeds in the SEC, Texas A&M and Kentucky. along with the sweep of the Gators, which could come into play when the committee fills out the last few spots.

The aforementioned Florida and Alabama both won on Thursday to keep their bubble hopes alive going into today's quarterfinals against Texas A&M and Kentucky, respectively. Also staying alive Thursday was Michigan, who survived a scare from Northwestern in overtime. The Wolverines have to defeat Indiana or their hopes are likely dashed.

Also of note in the Big Ten, Wisconsin lost to Nebraska, giving them five sub-100 losses along with the season-opening loss to Western Illinois. I think the Badgers end up in an 8/9 game in the first round, despite the losses, because of all the good wins they have and the roll they went on in the second half of the season.

Let's take a look at the bracket, which certainly underwent some changes overnight.



Last Four Byes: Pittsburgh, St. Bonaventure, South Carolina, Saint Mary's
Last Four In: Connecticut, Vanderbilt, Monmouth, Tulsa
First Four Out: VCU, Wichita State, Florida, Michigan
Next Four Out: Syracuse, Alabama, Valparaiso, George Washington

A lot of bubble action today, especially in the Atlantic 10, American Athletic and SEC.

The AAC quarterfinal between Cincinnati and Connecticut is quite intriguing. The Huskies have already lost twice to the Bearcats and a third loss, sitting right on the cut line, could spell trouble for Connecticut. We also have the top three seeds, Temple, Houston and Tulsa, in action, all on the bubble, though Houston may need the auto-bid to get in. A second loss to Memphis for Tulsa could end their tournament hopes.

In the A-10, it's Bubble City. VCU, St. Bonaventure and George Washington all looking for wins, particularly GW, who meets Saint Joseph's. They've got good wins, including home wins against Virginia and Seton Hall. But they're trying to overcome a low RPI for a mid-major, plus three bad losses, including at DePaul and at Saint Louis.

And we talked earlier about the SEC, namely Florida and Alabama. Florida could move into the field if the defeat A&M, while Alabama probably needs to boost their RPI a bit, so it may take a run to the SEC final for the Tide.

Here's your schedule for today, including a ton of semifinal games, leading up to the big day tomorrow with 14 championship games.

Atlantic 10 Quarterfinals (in Brooklyn, NY)

No. 1 Dayton vs. No. 9 Richmond, 12:00, NBC Sports
No. 4 Saint Joseph's vs. No. 5 George Washington, 2:30, NBC Sports
No. 2 VCU vs. No. 10 Massachusetts, 6:30, NBC Sports
No. 3 St. Bonaventure vs. No. 6 Davidson, 9:00, NBC Sports

ACC Semifinals (in Washington, D.C.)

No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 4 Notre Dame, 7:00, ESPN
No. 2 Virginia vs. No. 3 Miami (FL), 9:00, ESPN

American Athletic Quarterfinals (in Orlando, FL)

No. 1 Temple vs. No. 9 South Florida, 12:00, ESPN2
No. 4 Cincinnati vs. No. 5 Connecicut, 2:00, ESPN2
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 10 Tulane, 7:00, ESPNU
No. 3 Tulsa vs. No. 6 Memphis, 9:00, ESPNU

Big 12 Semifinals (in Kansas City, MO)

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 5 Baylor, 7:00, ESPN2
No. 2 West Virginia vs. No. 3 Oklahoma, 9:00, ESPN2

Big East Semifinals (in New York, NY)

No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 4 Providence, 6:30, FS1
No. 2 Xavier vs. No. 3 Seton Hall, 9:00, FS1

Big Sky Semifinals (in Reno, NV)

No. 1 Weber State vs. No. 5 North Dakota, 8:35
No. 2 Montana vs. No. 3 Idaho, 11:05

Big Ten Quarterfinals (in Indianapolis, IN)

No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 8 Michigan, 12:00, ESPN
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 12 Illinois, 2:25, ESPN
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 7 Ohio State, 6:30, BTN
No. 3 Maryland vs. No. 11 Nebraska, 8:55, BTN

Big West Semifinals (in Anaheim, CA)

No. 1 Hawaii vs. No. 4 UCSB, 9:30, ESPN3
No. 2 UC Irvine vs. No. 3 Long Beach State, 12:00, ESPNU

Conference USA Semifinals (in Birmingham, AL)

No. 5 Old Dominion vs. No. 8 Western Kentucky, 4:00, CBS Sports
No. 2 Middle Tennessee vs. No. 3 Marshall, 6:30, CBS Sports

MAC Semifinals (in Cleveland, OH)

No. 1 Akron vs. No. 12 Bowling Green, 6:30, ESPN3
No. 2 Ohio vs. No. 3 Buffalo, 9:00, ESPN3

MEAC Semifinals (in Norfolk, VA)

No. 1 Hampton vs. No. 5 Savannah State, 6:00, ESPN3
No. 2 Norfolk State vs. No. 3 South Carolina State, 8:30, ESPN3

Mountain West Semifinals (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 1 San Diego State vs. No. 5 Nevada, 9:00
No. 2 Fresno State vs. No. 6 Colorado State, 11:30

Pac-12 Semifinals (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 4 Arizona, 9:00, Pac-12
No. 2 Utah vs. No. 3 California, 11:30, FS1

SEC Quarterfinals (in Nashville, TN)

No. 1 Texas A&M vs. No. 8 Florida, 1:00, SEC Network
No. 4 LSU vs. No. 12 Tennessee, 3:25, SEC Network
No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Alabama, 7:00, SEC Network
No. 3 South Carolina vs. No. 6 Georgia, 9:25, SEC Network

Southland Semifinals (in Katy, TX)

No. 1 Stephen F. Austin vs. No. 4 Houston Baptist, 6:00, ESPN3
No. 2 Texas A&M-CC vs. No. 3 Sam Houston State, 8:30, ESPN3

SWAC Semifinals (in Houston, TX)

No. 3 Jackson State vs. No. 7 Mississippi Valley State, 3:30
No. 1 Texas Southern vs. No. 4 Southern, 9:30

Sun Belt Quarterfinals (in New Orleans, LA)

No. 4 Louisiana-Lafayette vs. No. 8 South Alabama, 6:00, ESPN3
No. 3 Texas-Arlington vs. No. 7 Texas State, 8:30, ESPN3

WAC Semifinals (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 1 New Mexico State vs. No. 5 UMKC, 9:00
No. 2 Cal State Bakersfield vs. No. 3 Seattle, 11:30

Thursday, March 10, 2016

Championship Week Thursday, Holy Cross Completes Amazing Run, Syracuse In Trouble

And we thought Austin Peay's run in the Ohio Valley was crazy.

In one of the craziest runs we've seen in a conference tournament, Holy Cross, who entered the Patriot League tournament at 10-19 overall (5-13 in conference) and the No. 9 seed in the field, won four straight road games, which included wins over the top two seeds, Bucknell and Lehigh.

Obviously, the Crusaders will be shipped to Dayton for the First Four, possibly against Fairleigh Dickinson. Those two teams have a combined 19 sub-200 RPI losses. But as we've seen in the past, those First Four games featuring the bottom four automatic qualifiers can turn into some of the more exciting games of the tournament. A potential FDU-Holy Cross matchup certainly can do that, as these teams are playing with house money.

With 19 losses, Holy Cross is dancing. With 13 losses, Syracuse might not.

The Orange lost to Pittsburgh for a third time on Wednesday in the second round of the ACC Tournament. Syracuse is now just inside the top 70 in the RPI, which is usually trouble for a team. And while the committee has said they will take Jim Boeheim's suspension into account, it's hard to see the Orange getting too much benefit of the doubt here because they've stumbled down the stretch with Boeheim on the sidelines. Granted, their three worst losses (at Georgetown, at St. John's, vs. Clemson) all came without Boeheim.

But as is stands, the Orange are now 4-9 against the top 50. Even if you remove the games Syracuse didn't have Boeheim, they're still 4-7 (removing the losses at Miami and Pittsburgh).

Right now, Syracuse is among the first four out and obviously don't have any more chances to improve their profile. And going one-and-done in D.C. certainly doesn't leave a good taste for the committee. As a result, Tulsa moved back into the field.

Also of note, Texas Tech was upset by TCU in the opening round of the Big 12 Tournament. Tubby Smith's team is still very much in the tournament, but they're now likely to wear their road uniforms in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Let's see how the bracket now shapes up heading into Thursday's action.



Last Four Byes: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, South Carolina, St. Bonaventure
Last Four In: Saint Mary's, Connecticut, Monmouth, Tulsa
First Four Out: VCU, Wichita State, Florida, Syracuse
Next Four Out: Michigan, Alabama, Valparaiso, Georgia Tech

Conference Rundown

Big 12 - 7
Pac-12 - 7
ACC - 6
Big Ten - 6
Big East - 5
American Athletic - 4
SEC - 4
Atlantic 10 - 3
MAAC - 2
West Coast - 2
One-bid Leagues - 22

No more bids will be handed out until Saturday, when 14 will be at stake. But there's no shortage of action today, including the last of the conferences getting their tournaments underway in the AAC, Big West, Sun Belt and WAC.

Atlantic 10 Second Round (in Brooklyn, NY)

No. 8 Fordham vs. No. 9 Richmond, 12:00, NBC Sports
No. 5 George Washington vs. No. 13 Saint Louis, 2:30, NBC Sports
No. 7 Rhode Island vs. No. 10 Massachusetts, 6:30, NBC Sports
No. 6 Davidson vs. No. 14 La Salle, 9:00, NBC Sports

ACC Quarterfinals (in Washington, D.C.)

No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 8 Pittsburgh, 12:00, ESPN
No. 4 Notre Dame vs. No. 5 Duke, 2:00, ESPN
No. 2 Virginia vs. No. 10 Georgia Tech, 7:00, ESPN
No. 3 Miami (FL) vs. No. 6 Virginia Tech, 9:00, ESPN

American Athletic First Round (in Orlando, FL)

No. 8 East Carolina vs. No. 9 South Florida, 3:30, ESPNU
No. 7 Central Florida vs. No. 10 Tulane, 6:00, ESPNews

Big 12 Quarterfinals (in Kansas City, MO)

No. 4 Texas vs. No. 5 Baylor, 12:30, ESPN2
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 8 Kansas State, 2:30, ESPN2
No. 2 West Virginia vs. No. 10 TCU, 7:00, ESPNU
No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 6 Iowa State, 9:00, ESPNU

Big East Quarterfinals (in New York, NY)

No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 8 Georgetown, 12:00, FS1
No. 4 Providence vs. No. 5 Butler, 2:30, FS1
No. 2 Xavier vs. No. 7 Marquette, 7:00, FS1
No. 3 Seton Hall vs. No. 6 Creighton, FS1

Big Sky Quarterfinals (in Reno, NV)

No. 1 Weber State vs. No. 8 Portland State, 3:05
No. 4 Idaho State vs. No. 5 North Dakota, 5:35
No. 2 Montana vs. No. 10 Sacramento State. 8:35
No. 3 Idaho vs. No. 6 Eastern Washington, 11:05

Big Ten Second Round (in Indianapolis, IN)

No. 8 Michigan vs. No. 9 Northwestern, 12:00, BTN
No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 12 Illinois, 2:25, BTN
No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Penn State, 6:30, ESPN2
No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 Nebraska, 8:55, ESPN2

Big West Quarterfinals (in Anaheim, CA)

No. 4 UCSB vs. No. 5 UC Davis, 3:00
No. 1 Hawaii vs. No. 8 Cal State Fullerton, 5:30
No. 2 UC Irvine vs. No. 7 Cal Poly, 9:00
No. 3 Long Beach State vs. No. 6 UC Riverside, 11:30

Conference USA Quarterfinals (in Birmingham, AL)

No. 1 UAB vs. No. 8 Western Kentucky, 1:00
No. 4 Louisiana Tech vs. No. 5 Old Dominion, 3:30
No. 2 Middle Tennessee vs. No. 7 Charlotte, 7:00
No. 3 Marshall vs. No. 6 UTEP, 9:30

MAC Quarterfinals (in Cleveland, OH)

No. 1 Akron vs. No. 8 Eastern Michigan, 12:00, ESPN3
No. 4 Central Michigan vs. No. 12 Bowling Green, 2:30, ESPN3
No. 2 Ohio vs. No. 7 Northern Illinois, 6:30, ESPN3
No. 3 Buffalo vs. No. 11 Miami (OH), 9:00, ESPN3

MEAC Quarterfinals (in Norfolk, VA)

No. 3 South Carolina State vs. No. 11 Coppin State, 6:00, ESPN3
No. 4 Bethune-Cookman vs. No. 5 Savannah State, 8:30, ESPN3

Mountain West Quarterfinals (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 1 San Diego State vs. No. 9 Utah State, 3:00, CBS Sports
No. 4 New Mexico vs. No. 5 Nevada, 5:30, CBS Sports
No. 2 Fresno State vs. No. 7 UNLV, 9:00, CBS Sports
No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 6 Colorado State, 11:30, CBS Sports

Pac-12 Quarterfinals (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Washington, 3:00, Pac-12
No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 5 Colorado, 5:30, Pac-12
No. 2 Utah vs. No. 7 USC, 9:00, Pac-12
No. 3 California vs. No. 6 Oregon State, 11:30, FS1

SEC Second Round (in Nashville, TN)

No. 8 Florida vs. No. 9 Arkansas, 1:00, SEC Network
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Tennessee, 3:25, SEC Network
No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Alabama, 7:00, SEC Network
No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 11 Mississippi State, 9:25, SEC Network

Southland Quarterfinals (in Katy, TX)

No. 4 Houston Baptist vs. No. 5 Southeastern Louisiana, 6:00, ESPN3
No. 3 Sam Houston State vs. No. 7 Nicholls State, 8:30, ESPN3

SWAC Quarterfinals (in Houston, TX)

No. 3 Jackson State vs. No. 6 Prairie View A&M, 3:30
No. 4 Southern vs. No. 5 Alabama State, 9:30

Sun Belt First Round (in New Orleans, LA)

No. 5 Georgia Southern vs. No. 8 South Alabama, 6:00, ESPN3
No. 6 Georgia State vs. No. 7 Texas State, 8:30, ESPN3

WAC Quarterfinals (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 4 Utah Valley vs. No. 5 UMKC, 5:00
No. 2 Cal State Bakersfield vs. No. 7 Chicago State, 7:30
No. 3 Seattle vs. No. 6 Texas-Rio Grande Valley, 10:00

A lot of action to take in. Enjoy the games and enjoy your Thursday. We'll meet back here tomorrow as things really start to take shape with just a few days left before Selection Sunday.

Saturday, March 5, 2016

Final Regular Season Bracket

We've made it to the final weekend of the regular season, as teams make last-ditch efforts to boost their tournament hopes. A lot of big games this weekend, including North Carolina at Duke, as well as the first tournament bids being handed out this weekend, the first one today in the Ohio Valley when No. 2 Tennessee-Martin battle the Cinderella story in the OVC, eighth-seeded Austin Peay, who upset top-seeded Belmont in Friday's semifinal, sending the Bruins to the NIT.

Two other top seeds were knocked off this week. Atlantic Sun No. 1 North Florida got blasted by Florida Gulf Coast in the semifinals, while Bucknell lost in double-overtime against No. 9 Holy Cross in the Patriot League quarterfinals. The Bison will play in the NIT. However, the Ospreys still have NCAA Tournament hopes. The reason is because Florida Gulf Coast is playing tournament-ineligible Stetson in Sunday's championship game, and per the A-Sun's decision, if Stetson wins the A-Sun tournament, then the regular season champion (North Florida), will claim the conference's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. So UNF will be rooting hard for Stetson to knock off Dunk City. By the way, FGCU beat Stetson by 29 at home on January 9.

I decided to put Florida Gulf Coast in the field, since they are still playing and the higher seed in the final. Should Stetson win, I will revert back to North Florida. Also, we now have Lehigh (Patriot) and Tennessee-Martin (Ohio Valley) in the field, both playing in Dayton in the First Four.

This weekend also features plenty more conference tournament action, including championships in the Missouri Valley and Big South on Sunday.

One other note from the field: Oregon State forward Tres Tinkle suffered a foot injury Tuesday and the Beavers struggled with USC Wednesday. Tinkle has already been ruled out for Saturday's finale at UCLA. If Tinkle's injury lingers and OSU doesn't play that well, their tournament hopes are in serious question. For now, the Beavers are just out, but if they show they can perform well without Tinkle, they'll move back in. Today's last four in are Michigan, St. Bonaventure, Tulsa and Cincinnati.

Here's a look at the final bracket of the regular season before things kick into high gear for Championship Week.

Last Four Byes: Vanderbilt, Connecticut, Syracuse, Butler
Last Four In: Michigan, St. Bonaventure, Tulsa, Cincinnati
First Four Out: Oregon State, Gonzaga, Alabama, Florida
Next Four Out: Stanford, George Washington, Ohio State, Houston

Conference Rundown

ACC - 7
Big 12 - 7
Big Ten - 7
Pac-12 - 6
Big East - 5
American Athletic - 4
Atlantic 10 - 4
SEC - 4
One-bid Leagues - 24

Enjoy what should be a great final weekend and we'll be back Monday to recap the weekend and setup for Championship Week. Take care, everyone.


Monday, February 29, 2016

Leap Day Bracket, Conference Tournaments Begin Tuesday

Happy February 29th, everyone, and happy birthday to those who actually get to celebrate their birthday on the actual date today, instead of either February 28th or March 1.

Speaking of which, March 1 is tomorrow, which means March Madness is almost here. Just 13 days until the official bracket is released. To start getting you ready, conference tournament action begins tomorrow in the Atlantic Sun and the Patriot League.

Depending on how things outside of here shake out, this will be my last week of two updates. Next week, per tradition (again, depending on other events), I will post every day as tournament action rolls along, updating the bracket as more champions are crowned and automatic bids are filled. In fact, the first tournament bid will be handed out on Saturday in the Ohio Valley.

So with that in mind, let's recap some of the action from the weekend. The big change at the top is Virginia moving back onto the top line after their win over North Carolina, while Xavier suffered a bit of a letdown after their big win over Villanova, though Seton Hall is by no means a bad team. The win all but clinched a tournament bid for the Pirates, who will dance for the first time in 10 years. They've been close in recent years, but this year, they will finally break through. Great season for the Hall.

Despite the loss at Texas, I actually moved Oklahoma up to No. 2, though it was more Villanova being dropped to No. 3. The Sooners still have seven top-25 RPI wins, second to only Kansas' nine. And that head-to-head win over the Wildcats will still loom large for OU.

I also want to mention the great turnaround by last season's runners-up, Wisconsin. This was a team who, after their January 12 loss at Northwestern, was sitting at 9-9 overall and 1-4 in the Big Ten. Since then, they've only lost once, by 12 at Michigan State. Their recent roll includes home wins over Michigan and Indiana, plus road wins at Maryland and Iowa. What a story in Madison. The Badgers currently sit as a No. 7 seed and could be dangerous in March. Remember, Michigan State made the Final Four last season as a No. 7.

VCU reclaimed the Atlantic 10 auto-bid thanks to their hard-fought win at George Washington Saturday, coupled with Dayton's continued free-fall on Saturday, losing at home to Rhode Island. The Rams are tied with Saint Joseph's at 13-3 in the standings, but own a head-to-head victory. A big game awaits on Saturday when VCU visits Dayton. The Rams could help their at-large hopes with a victory, even if they don't win the A-10 Tournament.

This, by itself, caused some shakeup on the bubble. As it stands, VCU took Tulsa's spot in the field, who lost at Memphis Sunday. Not a good loss for the Hurricane, who also own a home loss to Oral Roberts (RPI No. 150). Also working against Tulsa (and Cincinnati, the second team out), is the hot streak of Vanderbilt, who knocked off Kentucky on Saturday, giving the Commodores four top-50 wins and a top-50 RPI. Vandy not only is in the field, but they are above the First Four cut line as a No. 10 seed.

Syracuse, Alabama, Florida and Gonzaga sit as the last teams in the field. Florida has been free-falling of late, but their wins over West Virginia and Saint Joseph's, plus a top-five non-conference schedule, may just be enough to sneak them in. They can really help themselves with a win Tuesday against Kentucky. And with Connecticut falling out of the top 50, Gonzaga doesn't boast a single top-50 RPI win and just three top-100 wins (Connecticut and Washington on neutral courts, BYU at home). However, the Zags have a top-50 non-conference schedule and no bad losses, which most bubble teams cannot claim.

No bad losses is also why Stanford has quietly played their way back onto the bubble. But they still have some work to do, as they sit just 14-12 overall. The Cardinals sit in the "Next Four Out" group.

Let's take a look at the bracket.



Last Four Byes: Providence, Connecticut, Oregon State, Vanderbilt
Last Four In: Syracuse, Alabama, Florida, Gonzaga
First Four Out: Tulsa, Cincinnati, Butler, St. Bonaventure
Next Four Out: George Washington, Stanford, Ohio State, Washington

Conference Rundown:

ACC - 7
Big 12 - 7
Big Ten - 7
Pac-12 - 7
SEC - 6
Big East - 4
Atlantic 10 - 3
AAC - 2
West Coast - 2
One-bid Leagues - 23

Sunday, March 15, 2015

How the Bracket Was Built, Part Two

In Part One, we looked at how the top four seeds in each region were placed and discussed how the committee tries to balance the regions and assign the pods. Today, we'll go through the rest of the field, to give you an idea what the committee might have been thinking when placing the teams in once the pods have been set.

As a refresher, here is the seed list from the NCAA.



Now we're at the 5 seeds. It's not a written rule at this point, but the committee does seem to try to keep them top teams in each conference separated, so Utah was kept out of the West Region, where Arizona is. Plus with Houston fairly close and the pod being Portland, it makes sense to place the Utes in the South Region anyway, rather than send them out to Jacksonville if they were to be kept in the West. Next was Arkansas. Again, likely due to keeping them away from Kentucky, it was pretty much Seattle/Syracuse or Jacksonville/Los Angeles for the Razorbacks. Likely due to both cities being southern, the Jacksonville/LA track was chosen, hence Arkansas in the West.

Then with two pods remaining, the Columbus/Cleveland track is more sensible for West Virginia over Seattle/Syracuse. So the Mountaineers head to the Midwest, leaving the East Region and opening in Seattle for Northern Iowa.

On to the sixes. With the opening pod in Louisville, keeping SMU in the South became a no-brainer. They don't have to travel too far on the opening weekend and if they make it to the second weekend, they would play in their home state of Texas, going from Dallas to Houston. For Providence, the East is obviously the natural region and the pod starts in Columbus. Plus, there is no conflict with Villanova, so the spot is fair game for the Friars.

In fact, we have three Big East teams on line six, as Butler and Xavier round out the 6 seeds. Butler is next and obviously favor a Pittsburgh/Cleveland track over a Jacksonville/Los Angeles track, so it's the Midwest for the Bulldogs, leaving the West Region for the Musketeers.

As we move to the 7 seeds and start with Michigan State, you can argue Omaha/Cleveland is closer than Charlotte/Syracuse for the Spartans, but the committee placed them in the East, setting up a possible Sweet 16 rematch with Virginia in the Round of 32. It ends up being Wichita State getting the spot in the Midwest, allowing for Wichita State-Kansas to possibly happen over the weekend.

For Iowa, it pretty much came down to the fact that Houston is closer than LA, because the first-weekend pods available are Portland and Seattle. So it's the South for Iowa and the West for VCU.

Wrapping up the top half of the bracket with the 8 seeds, next on the list is Cincinnati and being a Midwestern school, the Bearcats geographically favor a Louisville/Cleveland track. It's just too bad that track feeds to a date with Kentucky on Saturday if Cincy wins. Same with the West for Oregon, as Omaha/Los Angeles is easily the closest as a group than either Pittsburgh/Syracuse or Charlotte/Houston.

The committee had no choice but to place NC State in the East. They could not be placed in the South because, due to having played them twice during the regular season and ACC Tournament, the Wolfpack could not meet Duke until the Sweet 16, so they cannot be the Blue Devils' 8 seed. Therefore, it's the East to possibly meet Villanova. That leaves the South for the last 8 seed, San Diego State.

Onto the 9s, where first up is St. John's. The East is out because they can't be bracketed with Villanova this early. Likely due to Charlotte being a bit closer than Louisville, plus the fact that the committee could matchup the teams ranked 32 and 33 on the seed list, the Johnnies were placed in the South and paired with San Diego State to start. Remember, there is no rule saying regular season rematches cannot happen in the Round of 32. Just the First Four and Round of 64. So Duke-St. John's in the third round is allowed. Then we look at Oklahoma State and see that Omaha/Los Angeles is pretty close in distance to Louisville/Cleveland. Since Omaha is closest, that's likely why the Cowboys were sent west to face Oregon on Friday.

More likely due to keeping them away from Kentucky, even though they had only met once this season, LSU was put in the East Region and matched with the Wolfpack, which left Purdue to meet Cincinnati with Kentucky lurking ahead. Have fun, Bearcats and Boilermakers.

Indiana led off the 10 seeds and two regions are already removed from consideration. They can't be paired with Michigan State or Iowa in the Round of 64, for obvious reasons. And of the two pod possibilities, Omaha/Cleveland is the easy choice over Portland/Los Angeles. So that gives us Wichita State-Indiana to start. Davidson could not head west (not that they wanted to, anyway), because VCU was sitting at that region's No. 7 seed. Interesting, though, that Davidson was sent to the Seattle/Houston track over Charlotte/Syracuse. They did play Virginia during the regular season, but that would be in the third round. Nonetheless, the Wildcats were put in the South to play Iowa with the winner likely meeting Gonzaga in a pseudo-road game.

No matchup with Michigan State to start, so Ohio State is sent out West where they'll see VCU, leaving Georgia to deal with Sparty in the East Region.

Texas is the first 11 seed to be placed and our decision is easy. We only have one. Texas cannot play any Big 12 team in the Round of 32, thanks to the double-round robin league play, so the East (Oklahoma), South (Iowa State) and West (Baylor) are all out because a Big 12 team sits as the 3 seed. So it's the Midwest and a date with Butler for the Longhorns. UCLA is pretty much splitting the difference getting the Louisville/Houston track over the Jacksonville/Los Angeles track. They get SMU to kick off their run.

Now we get to the last four at-large teams, Ole Miss, BYU, Boise State and Dayton. The pairings are usually Nos. 33 and 34 among the at-larges facing each other in one game, and 35 and 36 in the other. So that gives us Ole Miss vs. BYU and Boise State vs. Dayton. And just to clarify, the exception to the rule about a team not being allowed to play on their home floor during the tournament is if Dayton is among the last four in and sent to the First Four.

So we start with the Ole Miss/BYU game. We also have to keep in mind that BYU cannot play on a Sunday. Well, the committee caught a huge break here, as the Jacksonville/Los Angeles track means BYU avoids playing on a Sunday. In fact, I wouldn't doubt it if the committee were going to put UCLA in the West, then switched out to put Ole Miss/BYU in that slot. That leaves the East and Columbus for the Boise State/Dayton game, which means things work out because we have a game on Tuesday (Ole Miss/BYU) and a game on Wednesday (Boise State/Dayton), those feeding into one each of the Thursday/Saturday and Friday/Sunday regions in the first weekend.

Now we have the teams everyone will be looking at first for their big upsets, the 12 seeds. Since the first pod is in Seattle, despite being in the East, the committee sent Wyoming to that region, giving us Wyoming vs. Northern Iowa. Buffalo is next and they'll take the Columbus/Cleveland track, matching them up with West Virginia in Kentucky's region.

Going out to Portland but possibly playing in their home state likely took precedence as the committee bracketed Stephen F. Austin in the South Region, where they'll open against Utah, leaving the West No. 12 and a date with Arkansas to the Terriers of Wofford.

Valparaiso is a Midwest school and as the first of the 13s to be put into the field, Columbus/Cleveland is easily the choice, drawing Maryland to start. The committee then likely decided to give Harvard the Jacksonville/Los Angeles track instead of Seattle/Syracuse so that the Crimson wouldn't have to travel cross-country two years in a row to begin the tournament, as last year they opened their tournament run in Spokane. Harvard will take on UNC.

Now we're left with an Eastern Washington team to be paired with an eastern school at a western site. There was likely no way would the committee force Louisville to have to face the Eagles in Seattle, so EWU is sent to the Portland/Houston track, giving them a first game against Georgetown. That means Louisville gets the last remaining 13 seed, UC Irvine.

Starting with Georgia State for the 14 seeds, the South Region was out because Georgia State played Iowa State during the regular season, so the committee likely felt Jacksonville is pretty close to the school, even if it means playing in the West Region, therefore the Panthers go west and draw Baylor in the second round. And with Pittsburgh/Cleveland and Columbus/Syracuse fairly close in total distance, the Pittsburgh/Cleveland track wins out for Northeastern, as they are closest to Pittsburgh among the first-weekend sites. The Huskies will face Notre Dame.

The southern track of Louisville/Houston is preferred over Columbus/Syracuse for the Blazers of UAB, putting them up against Iowa State. That means Albany gets the last spot among the 14s, going to the East and facing Oklahoma.

The Aggies of New Mexico State ranked as the strongest 15 seed, and they were sent to the first-weekend pod closest to them, Omaha. So they're in the Midwest, facing Kansas in their opener. And it would have been a long opening ride for Belmont to go to either Portland or Seattle, so it's East Bound and down to Charlotte for the Bruins, pairing them with Virginia.

Texas Southern, who is giving the SWAC a rare 15 seed, had only one choice, because they had played Gonzaga in the regular season, so they're sent to the West Region against Arizona. That leaves North Dakota State to square off with Gonzaga out in Seattle in the South Region.

Finally, the 16 seeds, starting with two that go directly to the Round of 64, Lafayette and Coastal Carolina. The Leopards are easily sent to the Pittsburgh/Syracuse track, letting them stay in-state for the first weekend and face Villanova. For Coastal Carolina, we can't put them against Duke because we have to save that spot for a First Four game, because it's the only remaining Friday/Sunday pod of the three available. And the committee usually gives the No. 1 overall seed one of the First Four winners, and let's face it, Kentucky earned the right to get a First Four winner. So we land on the West Region for the Chanticleers and a Round of 64 game against Wisconsin.

Last, but not least, the last four automatic qualifiers heading to the First Four. Just like the at-larges, it's the bottom two against each other and then the next bottom two. Or if we're using the seed list rankings, 65 vs. 66 and 67 vs. 68. That means North Florida gets Robert Morris and Manhattan takes on Hampton. Neither matchup is a regular season rematch and none of these four faced Kentucky or Duke. So we can simply give Kentucky the bottom two and Duke the other matchup. So Duke gets the winner of North Florida/Robert Morris and Kentucky draws either Manhattan or Hampton.

And there you have it. There's your look, at least as best as I can put it, at how all 68 teams were placed into the field. I hope this at least helps you somewhat understand a little bit better how the bracket is put together. It really is like putting together a 68-piece jigsaw puzzle. Enjoy the tournament, everyone. And may your brackets at least survive the first weekend.

How the Bracket Was Built, Part One

Now that the Selection Show has come and gone and we've had a chance to dissect the selections, the pairings and the brackets (someone please explain how UCLA got in and Colorado State didn't), I thought it would be fun to go through the seed list and try to break down how the bracket was put together. Part one will take a look at the top four seeds in each region.

As we know, the process begins the Wednesday before Selection Sunday and the committee usually spends Wednesday through Saturday selecting the teams, getting their 68 teams set by Saturday night, save for any potential bid thieves on Sunday as we almost saw with Connecticut.

After all was said and done, this was how the committee ranked the 68 teams that made it to the big dance.

I also highlighted, as I usually do when building my seed list, the last four teams in and the last four byes. So you'll notice the four teams avoiding the First Four were Ohio State, Georgia, Texas and UCLA (seriously, someone tell me how the Bruins got in). And it shows that Ole Miss, BYU, Boise State and Dayton will play in the First Four on Tuesday and Wednesday. We'll get to those teams in part two. But first, let's start at the top and begin building the bracket.

One key piece of information some fans may not realize is that the bracket is completely blank until sometime Sunday afternoon, meaning the committee is just putting the field together literally hours before the Selection Show at 6:00, during these championship games. Sometimes, as they did this year, they build more than one bracket as contingency plans. For the purposes of this article, we'll use the final seed list.

The first thing the committee does is place the top four teams into the bracket and then assign the regions to set up the Final Four pairings. So starting in the top left and working clockwise, we place the teams in order, so we go Kentucky, Villanova, Duke and finally, Wisconsin. From there, we assign the regions based on geography.

So, as the closest site to Lexington, UK is sent to Cleveland for the regional, which means the top left bracket becomes the Midwest Region. Next is Villanova, and clearly, Syracuse is the closest of the three remaining sites, so the Big East champs are assigned to the East Region.

Duke is third, meaning they have one of two sites to be placed in and with Houston closer to Durham than Los Angeles, the Blue Devils headline the South Region. Finally, as the fourth No. 1 seed, Wisconsin gets what is left, which is the West Region. And thus, the region pairings are set. It'll be the Midwest champion vs. the West champion in one national semifinal, while the other matchup will be East vs. South.

So now we have the top seeds set. The next step is to place the rest of the top 16 teams into the bracket in seed list order, taking into account geography, separating same-conference teams and keeping the regions as balanced as possible.

Let's now take the teams that are the No. 2 seeds in each region, Virginia, Arizona, Gonzaga and Kansas and place them into the field. The East is the closest site for Virginia, plus they cannot be placed in the South with Duke, so the Cavaliers join Villanova in the East. Naturally, Arizona would head west and since they are next on the list, that's where they are placed, setting up a potential Elite 8 rematch with Wisconsin. This obviously means Gonzaga cannot be in the West region as Arizona has already taken that spot. So between Houston and Cleveland, the choice is Houston for the Zags, pairing them with Duke. That leaves the Midwest for Kansas and the honor of being the No. 2 seed in Kentucky's region, setting up a possible 2013 championship rematch in the regional final.

Then we go to the three seeds, Iowa State, Baylor, Oklahoma and Notre Dame. This is where things get interesting because conference opponents on the top four lines have to be separated, meaning we can pretty much assume at this point that Notre Dame will be placed in the Midwest (which they were). So with the Midwest out for the Big 12 teams, we start with the Cyclones and they can easily fit into the South Region. Next is Baylor and it's between the West and the East. LA is a bit closer to Waco than Syracuse is, so the Bears get sent to the West Region. That leaves the East for Oklahoma, because, again, the top four teams in each conference, if they're all on the top four lines, cannot be in the same region. So it's Syracuse for the Sooners, leaving Cleveland for the Irish.

Finally we get to the 4 seeds, North Carolina, Maryland, Louisville and Georgetown. Starting with the Tar Heels, we only have one choice because of the conference rule. With Duke in the South, Virginia in the East and Notre Dame in the Midwest, we have no choice but to put UNC in the West Region. Likely in an effort to balance out the regions, since we have the weakest No. 2 and weakest No. 3 there, Maryland was placed in the Midwest Region, meaning they would run into Kentucky in the Sweet 16, should both teams get there. Louisville was sent to the East, possibly to separate them from Duke (the conference rule is no longer in effect for the ACC because the top four teams have already been bracketed) and possibly for balance. That left the South Region for Georgetown.

After all those teams are placed in the bracket, the committee then adds up the true seed numbers of each team to get a sum for each region. The regions are then compared to each other to see how balanced the regions are. Typically, the committee doesn't like having a gap of more than five points between the strongest and weakest regions. Luckily for the committee here, the region sums were, starting from the Midwest and going clockwise, 35, 33, 35, and 34. That's pretty well-balanced. Once we check the balance and make any necessary changes, the committee then goes ahead and assigns the first-weekend pods to each team, in true seed list order.

Here's where each team was assigned, in seed list order:

Kentucky - Louisville
Villanova - Pittsburgh
Duke - Charlotte
Wisconsin - Omaha

As the No. 1 seeds, these teams have first shot and are almost guaranteed their closest spots. I thought the Badgers would be sent to Columbus, but likely the Midwest factor for Wisconsin helped the committee decide on Omaha.

Virginia - Charlotte
Arizona - Portland
Gonzaga - Seattle
Kansas - Omaha

Again, no surprises here. Charlotte is pretty close and in ACC territory for the Cavs, Portland keeps Arizona on the west coast, Gonzaga doesn't even have to leave their home city and Omaha is the closest for the Jayhawks.

Iowa State - Louisville
Baylor - Jacksonville
Oklahoma - Columbus
Notre Dame - Pittsburgh

With Omaha filled, the Cyclones get their next-best spot in Louisville. Jacksonville looks to be the closest of the remaining pods for Baylor, same for Oklahoma with Columbus. A bit surprising the Irish were sent to Pittsburgh with Columbus still available, but still a close ride for them

North Carolina - Jacksonville
Maryland - Columbus
Louisville - Seattle
Georgetown - Portland

North Carolina stays in the south heading to Jacksonville, while Maryland gets to play in Big Ten territory on the campus of Ohio State. And as it seems to always be the case every year, the last two teams on the top 16 get shipped out west because there aren't enough west coast teams atop the list to fill those pods, so the Cardinals head to Seattle and the Hoyas will open in Portland.

And that's a look at how the top 16 were placed into the field. In part two, we'll dive into the remaining 52 teams, including how the committee likely handled BYU in the First Four once again.