Northern Iowa just gave themselves a long wait until Selection Sunday after their stunning loss Friday against No. 8 seed Drake in the Missouri Valley quarterfinals, a tournament that is already bringing more Arch Madness as the Nos. 6 and 7 seeds (Missouri State and Valparaiso) also advanced to today's semifinals and one of them will play for the automatic bid tomorrow.
As for UNI, it's time to wait and see if they've done enough to convince the committee to give them an at-large bid and make the Missouri Valley a two-bid league. The Panthers have a top-50 NET ranking but only have one quadrant one victory at Colorado. They do also own a neutral-court victory over South Carolina. The question now becomes will that be enough to overcome three quadrant three losses, including the early tournament exit from Drake by 21, a team UNI beat by ten at home and by 27 on the road. As of now, the Panthers sit among the first four out and may have to hope some of the other bubble teams ruin their own chances over the next eight days.
You'll also notice Tulsa is currently in the field as the leader in the American Athletic Conference and can win the regular-season title outright with a win at Wichita State Sunday, the first team out of today's field.
A couple of wins has put Purdue back in the mix. 16-14 certainly looks a lot better than 14-14, which is where Purdue was a few days ago. They'll want to defeat Rutgers today to feel better about their hopes. A loss today puts them at 15 losses and they would likely reach 16 after the Big Ten tournament. No team has ever received an at-large bid with 16 losses. The Boilermakers also sit among the first four out today.
Then there's UCLA. Those six quadrant one wins might be too much to ignore for the committee, even with the 77 NET ranking (which can still improve). The Bruins have season-sweeps of Arizona and Colorado, plus a split with Arizona State. A win over USC gives them at least a share of the Pac-12 title with Oregon and that should also resonate well with the committee, especially since UCLA is the seventh team out of the conference in this projection.
Saturday will also see the first two tickets officially punched to the big dance, as automatic bids will be handed out in the Mountain West and the Ohio Valley. The Mountain West moved their tournament up a week. We have the expected championship match between San Diego State and Utah State. The Aztecs can all but secure the last No. 1 seed with a win. A loss opens the door for Dayton to claim that spot. Both teams are in search of their first-ever No. 1 seed in the tournament.
San Diego State is set for their best seed since being a No. 2 in 2011, while Dayton hasn't been seeded this high since earning a No. 4 seed in 2003, meaning the Flyers are set for the highest seed in their tournament history.
Utah State can take themselves off the bubble by punching their ticket tonight, while also causing more worry for the other bubble teams. The Aggies are currently among the last four in. Wins over Florida and LSU definitely look good and may still push them in regardless. But a win would end any debate.
The other championship is yet another Murray State vs Belmont battle in the Ohio Valley. This is the third year in a row the Racers and Bruins are meeting in the final. Murray State has won the last two Ohio Valley titles, with 2019 seeing both teams make the NCAA Tournament after the selection committee gave Belmont an at-large bid.
Here's a look at the last tournament field.
Last Four In: Utah State, Richmond, Stanford, UCLA
First Four Out: Wichita State, Xavier, Northern Iowa, Purdue
Next Four Out: North Carolina State, Arkansas, Memphis, Cincinnati
Conference Breakdown
Big Ten - 10
Pac-12 - 7
Big East - 6
Big 12 - 6
ACC - 4
SEC - 4
West Coast - 3
AAC - 2
Atlantic 10 - 2
Mountain West - 2
One-bid leagues - 22
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