Notes: Indiana (from 11 to 10) and San Francisco (10 to 11) swapped seed lines, as did Michigan/Xavier (11 to 12) and Virginia Tech/Oklahoma (12 to 11) to adhere to bracketing rules.
Last Four In: Michigan, Xavier, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma
First Four Out: Wake Forest, Notre Dame, SMU, Dayton
Next Four Out: VCU, North Texas, BYU, Texas A&M
Conference Breakdown:
Big Ten - 9
Big 12 - 7
Big East - 7
SEC - 6
ACC - 4
Mountain West - 4
Pac-12 - 3
West Coast - 3
American Athletic - 2
One-bid leagues - 23
Since we last met, Indiana became a huge winner on the bubble. Wins over Michigan and Illinois in the Big Ten tournament have likely saved Indiana's season. In fact, we currently have them just above the cut line as the team with a bye and avoiding Dayton. Even if they lose today against Iowa, the Hoosiers are probably dancing.
Another bubble winner this week is Virginia Tech. The Hokies have advanced to today's ACC tournament final against Duke and have knocked off Notre Dame and North Carolina in the process. Those wins, plus strong computer numbers (up to No. 30 in NET) have put the Hokies in the field today among the Last Four In group. They can take themselves out of that group completely with a win today over Duke, as that would give them the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament and they would not have to worry about playing in Dayton.
Despite the loss in the Big 12 semifinals against Texas Tech, Oklahoma sneaks in as the last team in the field, beating out Wake Forest, Notre Dame and SMU. Despite just an 18-15 record, the Sooners have four Quad 1 wins, three of them against the top 20 of the NET (Baylor, Texas Tech, Arkansas). The committee tends to lean towards strong wins. It's also not unprecedented for a 15-loss team to earn at at-large bid. In 2017, Vanderbilt earned a No. 9 seed at 19-15. The Sooners can still get bumped out, and you can make a case for or against any of these teams. For the Sooners, they are top-40 in all the main metric rankings except for KPI (No. 52). They also have ten wins against Quads 1 and 2.
Still time for things to change and teams like SMU and Dayton are still on the prowl to potentially take away a bid and shrink the bubble.
Saturday is a very busy day, as 15 tournament tickets will officially be punched today and the remaining five championship matchups for tomorrow will be set. Here's a rundown of all the action, including the last of the conferences to tip off their tournament in the Ivy League and the traditional 11:00 a.m. tip for the America East championship.
America East Championship
No. 2 UMBC at No. 1 Vermont, 11:00 a.m., ESPN2
ACC Championship (in Brooklyn, NY)
No. 7 Virginia Tech vs. No. 1 Duke, 8:30, ESPN
Big 12 Championship (in Kansas City, MO)
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Kansas, 6:00, ESPN
Big East Championship (in New York, NY)
No. 4 Creighton vs. No. 2 Villanova, 6:30, Fox
Big Sky Championship (in Boise, ID)
No. 3 Northern Colorado vs. No. 1 Montana State, 8:00, ESPNU
Big West Championship (in Henderson, NV)
No. 2 Cal State Fullerton vs. No. 1 Long Beach State, 11:30, ESPN2
Conference USA Championship (in Frisco, TX)
No. W3 Louisiana Tech vs. No. W2 UAB, 8:30, CBSSN
Metro Atlantic Championship (in Atlantic City, NJ)
No. 4 Monmouth vs. No. 2 Saint Peter's, 4:00, ESPNU
MAC Championship (in Cleveland, OH)
No. 4 Akron vs. No. 2 Kent State, 7:30, ESPN2
MEAC Championship (in Norfolk, VA)
No. 7 Coppin State vs. No. 1 Norfolk State, 1:00, ESPN2
Mountain West Championship (in Las Vegas, NV)
No. 3 San Diego State vs. No. 1 Boise State, 6:00, CBS
Pac-12 Championship (in Las Vegas, NV)
No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 1 Arizona, 9:00, Fox
Southland Championship (in Katy, TX)
No. 4 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. No. 2 Southeastern Louisiana, 9:30, ESPN2
SWAC Championship (in Birmingham, AL)
No. 2 Texas Southern vs. No. 1 Alcorn State, 6:00, ESPNU
WAC Championship (in Las Vegas, NV)
No. 6 Abilene Christian vs. No. 1 New Mexico State, 10:00, ESPNU
American Athletic Semifinals (in Fort Worth, TX)
No. 5 Tulane vs. No. 1 Houston, 3:00, ESPN2
No. 3 Memphis vs. No. 2 SMU, 5:30, ESPN2
Atlantic 10 Semifinals (in Washington, D.C.)
No. 5 Saint Louis vs. No. 1 Davidson, 1:00, CBSSN
No. 6 Richmond vs. No. 2 Dayton, 3:30, CBSSN
Big Ten Semifinals (in Indianapolis, IN)
No. 9 Indiana vs. No. 5 Iowa, 1:00, CBS
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Purdue, 3:30, CBS
Ivy League Semifinals (in Cambridge, MA)
No. 4 Cornell vs. No. 1 Princeton, 11:00 a.m., ESPNU
No. 3 Penn vs. No. 2 Yale, 2:00, ESPNU
SEC Semifinals (in Tampa, FL)
No. 8 Texas A&M vs. No. 4 Arkansas, 1:00, ESPN
No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Tennessee, 3:30, ESPN
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