Final 2025 Bracket Prediction

 VCU and Memphis both won Sunday, meaning the bubble stayed exactly where it was entering the day. That means our final bracket has Indiana and Boise State as the last two in, while Texas, North Carolina and Xavier are left out. 

Florida defeated Tennessee to win the SEC and secure the final No. 1 seed, though they likely had it anyway. Michigan defeated Wisconsin to win the Big Ten and Yale goes back-to-back in the Ivy League.

With that, it's time to dance! Before the actual bracket reveal, here is my final bracket prediction. Thank you for another fun season. Let's do it again next year!

Last Four Byes: Utah State, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt

Last Four In: West Virginia, San Diego State, Indiana, Boise State 
First Four Out: Xavier, Texas, North Carolina, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Dayton, North Texas, UC Irvine, George Mason

Conference Breakdown

SEC - 13

Big Ten - 9

Big 12 - 8

Mountain West - 5

Big East - 4

ACC - 3

West Coast - 2

One-bid leagues - 24

And of course, check out the Bracket Matrix to see how I fared for my final grade (and to see if I did better than Joe Lunardi).

Selection Sunday is Here

The day has arrived. Selection Sunday is here. The last five automatic bids to the tournament will be handed out today and then, come 6:00 eastern on CBS, we will find out what the field of 68 looks like.

Before we go further, let’s take a moment to remember the greatness of the one and only Greg Gumbel. The longtime broadcaster passed away on December 27 after a long battle with cancer. He was 78 years old. He was a consummate professional in all aspects of his career, but especially with the NCAA Tournament. He was the face of the Selection Show. 

Adam Zucker has since taken over and will do a great job. But today is going to feel very different knowing the great Greg Gumbel is no longer with us. But we know he’ll be watching down upon us and revealing the 68 teams right there with Zucker. Rest in peace, Greg Gumbel.

As far as the bracket goes, the top of the bracket looks set. It should be Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida, in that order. Could the committee move Tennessee up if they beat Florida to win the SEC title? Maybe. But we’re sticking with Florida.

The two line also feels locked in with Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State and St. John’s. Texas Tech and Kentucky are likely on the 3 line with Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa State and Texas A&M all in play for the other two spots.

On the bubble, Colorado State took any guesswork away from the committee as they secured the automatic bid from the Mountain West for the first time since 2003. Will that bid come at the expense of conference partner Boise State? Our current bracket has the Broncos as the last team in but sweating a lot Sunday. Not one, but two potential bid thieves are lurking Sunday in the Atlantic 10 (George Mason) and American (UAB). So not only is Boise on the ropes, so is Indiana.

Xavier, Texas and North Carolina are on the short end of the stick. Would it be surprising if any of them get selected? Not completely but UNC would be the most surprising with a 1-12 Quad 1 record.

With the bubble shrinking, West Virginia fell into the last four in group and is projected to go to Dayton for the First Four. Two other candidates that could end up in Dayton are Utah State and Vanderbilt.

Big congratulations are in store both the men’s and women’s teams at UC San Diego. In their first year of eligibility for the tournament, both programs won their respective Big West championships Saturday to claim their tickets to the dance. 

That means the men’s tournament will have four teams dancing for the first time: UC San Diego, High Point, Omaha and SIU-Edwardsville.

With all that said, for the penultimate time, here is our bracket projection. The final bracket will be posted just before the Selection Show at 6:00.

Last Four Byes: Utah State, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt

Last Four In: West Virginia, San Diego State, Indiana, Boise State 
First Four Out: Xavier, Texas, North Carolina, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Dayton, North Texas, UC Irvine, George Mason

Conference Breakdown

SEC - 13

Big Ten - 9

Big 12 - 8

Mountain West - 5

Big East - 4

ACC - 3

West Coast - 2

One-bid leagues - 24

As always, check out the Bracket Matrix to see how this bracket stacks up to the rest of the bracketology world.

Championship Week Friday Bracket

Selection Sunday is just two days away and the bracket is starting to take shape. For the most part, we have a good idea of who is going dancing next week, but there are still some bubble teams looking to secure an automatic bid while potential bid thieves are still making bubble teams sweat.

Two big winners from Thursday were North Carolina and Texas. The No. 5 seed Tar Heels scored a quarterfinal win over Wake Forest to set up a semifinal rematch with Duke, who may be without Cooper Flagg (sprained ankle vs. Georgia Tech). 

The No. 13 seed Longhorns needed double overtime but pulled off the big upset over Texas A&M to advance to the SEC quarterfinals against Tennessee. With seven Quad 1 wins, Texas beats out Boise State and Xavier for the last spot in the field, giving the SEC 14 teams in the field.

Boise State scored a much-needed victory over San Diego State to reach the Mountain West semifinals against No. 1 New Mexico. A win over the Lobos puts Boise State in position to secure the automatic bid and take themselves off the bubble completely.

As for Xavier, they’re left to sweat out the weekend after blowing a 15-point and losing to Marquette in the Big East quarterfinals. Xavier does now have two Quad 1 wins after Connecticut moved into the top 30 of the NET, making Xavier’s home win against the Huskies a Quad 1. Given this bubble, it wouldn’t be surprising if the committee puts Xavier in. But for now, we have the big X out.

Expect more updates and changes to the bracket as bubble teams potentially play their way in or out while bid thieves potentially shrink the bubble.

For now, here is today’s updated bracket.

Last Four Byes: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, West Virginia

Last Four In: Indiana, San Diego State, North Carolina, Texas
First Four Out: Boise State, Xavier, Ohio State, Colorado State
Next Four Out: SMU, North Texas, UC Irvine, Dayton

Conference Breakdown

SEC - 14
Big Ten - 9
Big 12 - 8
Big East - 4
ACC - 4
Mountain West - 3
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 24

As always, check out the Bracket Matrix to see how this bracket stacks up to the rest of the bracketology world.

 

Championship Week Wednesday Bracket Update

There may not have been much change to the bracket Tuesday, but that doesn't mean there wasn't excitement on the court. The most excitement may have come in New Britain, Connecticut. The Red Flash of St. Francis, 13-17 overall entering the NEC tournament (10-17 against Division I) found their groove at just the right time and, despite a tough shooting day, stood tall on defense to end the 14-game winning streak of Central Connecticut to advance to the NCAA Tournament for only the second time in school history and first since 1991.

St. Francis is up to No. 296 in the NET rankings and below 300 in BPI, KenPom and Torvik. They will almost undoubtedly be No. 68 on the tournament seed list and likely face the Patriot League winner, either American or Navy (that game is tonight). This also bumps Omaha up to a No. 15 seed and moves Quinnipiac above the last four automatic qualifiers and directly into the main bracket of 64.

Also punching their tickets Tuesday were Horizon League champion Robert Morris (first appearance since 2015), Coastal champion UNC Wilmington (2017) and West Coast champion Gonzaga (26th consecutive appearance).

Wednesday sees three more champions crowned, the last three until 12 are decided on Saturday and five on Sunday.

• Southland championship: Lamar vs. McNeese
• Patriot League championship: Navy vs. American
• Big Sky championship: Montana vs. Northern Colorado

Action continues in the ACC, Big 12, Conference USA, Metro Atlantic, SWAC and WAC. Eight more conferences begin their tournaments Wednesday: American, Atlantic 10, Big East, Big Ten, Big West, Mountain West and SEC.

Plenty of bubble teams are in action Wednesday, including North Carolina, Texas, Oklahoma and Ohio State, all of whom need wins to help their respective causes. Texas and Oklahoma have the best opportunities against Vanderbilt and Georgia, respectively. 

North Carolina is in a tough spot because they wouldn't get a chance at a quality win until at least the semifinals if they meet Duke. A win over Notre Dame sets them up against Wake Forest in the quarterfinals. Wins there wouldn't quite put the Tar Heels in the field, but losses can very well keep them out.

Ohio State needs a win over Iowa to feel better about their chances. A win also sets up a big opportunity against Illinois in the second round.

Here's the rundown of games on Wednesday.

Atlantic 10 First Round (Washington, D.C.)

Richmond vs. Davidson (11:30, USA Network)

Fordham vs. Rhode Island (2:00, USA Network)

La Salle vs. UMass (4:30, USA Network)

ACC Second Round (Charlotte, NC)

Virginia vs. Georgia Tech (12:00, ESPN)

Notre Dame vs. North Carolina (2:30, ESPN)

California vs. Stanford (7:00, ESPN2)

Syracuse vs. SMU (9:30, ESPNU)

American First Round (Denton, TX)

Charlotte vs. Rice (1:00, ESPN+)

Big Ten First Round (Indianapolis, IN)

Northwestern vs. Minnesota (3:30, Peacock)

Iowa vs. Ohio State (6:00, Peacock)

USC vs. Rutgers (8:30, Peacock)

Big 12 Second Round (Kansas City, MO)

Cincinnati vs. Iowa State (12:30, ESPN)

Colorado vs. West Virginia (3:00, ESPN+)

Kansas State vs. Baylor (7:00, ESPN+)

UCF vs. Kansas (9:30, ESPN2)

Big East First Round (New York, NY)

Butler vs. Providence (4:00, Peacock)

DePaul vs. Georgetown (6:30, Peacock)

Seton Hall vs. Villanova (9:00, Peacock)

Big West First Round (Henderson, NV)

Cal State Bakersfield vs. UC Santa Barbara (9:00, ESPN+)

Cal Poly vs. UC Davis (11:30, ESPN+)

Conference USA Quarterfinals (Huntsville, AL)

UTEP vs. Liberty (6:30, ESPN+)

Florida International vs. Jacksonville State (9:00, ESPN+)

MAAC Quarterfinals (Atlantic City, NJ)

Rider vs. Quinnipiac (6:00, ESPN+)

Sacred Heart vs. Merrimack (8:30, ESPN+)

MEAC Quarterfinals (Norfolk, VA)

Maryland-Eastern Shore vs. Norfolk State (6:00, ESPN+)

Coppin State vs. South Carolina State (8:00, ESPN+)

SEC First Round (Nashville. TN)

South Carolina vs. Arkansas (1:00, SECN)

Texas vs. Vanderbilt (3:30, SECN)

LSU vs. Mississippi State (7:00, SECN)

Oklahoma vs. Georgia (9:30, SECN)

SWAC Quarterfinals (College Park, GA)

Grambling vs. Southern (2:00, ESPN+)

Florida A&M vs. Jackson State (8:30, ESPN+)

WAC Quarterfinals (Las Vegas, NV)

Utah Tech vs. Utah Valley (9:00, ESPN+)

Texas-Arlington vs. Grand Canyon (11:30, ESPN+)

Here's your bracket update.

Last Four Byes: Georgia, Arkansas, West Virginia, San Diego State

Last Four In: Indiana, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Xavier
First Four Out: North Carolina, Texas, Boise State, Colorado State
Next Four Out: SMU, Nebraska, San Francisco, UC Irvine

Conference Breakdown

SEC - 13
Big Ten - 10
Big 12 - 8
Big East - 5
ACC - 3
Mountain West - 3
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 24

As always, check out the Bracket Matrix to see how this bracket stacks up to the rest of the bracketology world.

 

Championship Week Tuesday Bracket Update

Two more teams punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament Monday. No. 6 seed Wofford knocked off No. 5 seed Furman to claim the Southern Conference title. Fun fact (hat tip CBS Sports): the SoCon has had six winners over the last six seasons. Starting with the 2019-20 season, there was East Tennessee State (who did not get to dance because of Covid), UNC Greensboro, Chattanooga, Furman, Samford and now Wofford. The Terriers are dancing for the first time since 2019, when they were a No. 7 seed and advanced to the second round. Wofford is currently projected as a No. 15 seed.

Elsewhere, for the first time since 2017, Troy is heading to the dance. The Trojans knocked off Arkansas State to claim the Sun Belt. That was one of the more wide-open fields as four teams (Troy, Arkansas State, South Alabama and James Madison) all shared the regular-season title. Troy is currently projected as a No. 14 seed.

The other change to the bracket was UNC Wilmington in as the Coastal representative after No. 1 seed Towson was stunned by No. 12 seed Delaware in the semifinals. The Blue Hens were 5-13 in conference play and are 16-19 overall. But they have now won four games in four days to reach the final. Delaware will undoubtedly start the tournament in Dayton if they pull the upset Tuesday. 

Tuesday sees four more teams officially claim their spot in the field. Here are the four championship games.

• Coastal: Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington (7:00, CBSSN)
• Northeast: St. Francis (PA) vs. Central Connecticut (7:00, ESPN2)
• Horizon: Youngstown State vs. Robert Morris 7:00, ESPN)
• West Coast: Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's (9:00, ESPN)

Also on Tuesday, the power conferences join the party as the ACC and Big 12 tournaments get underway with opening-round games. The Metro Atlantic, SWAC, WAC and Conference USA also begin their tournaments and we'll set up championship games in the America East, Big Sky and Southland.

Not much will change in the bracket over the next few days, but we'll still have updates. Here is today's update.

Last Four Byes: Georgia, Arkansas, West Virginia, San Diego State

Last Four In: Indiana, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Xavier
First Four Out: North Carolina, Texas, Boise State, Colorado State
Next Four Out: SMU, Nebraska, San Francisco, UC Irvine

Conference Breakdown

SEC - 13
Big Ten - 10
Big 12 - 8
Big East - 5
ACC - 3
Mountain West - 3
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 24

As always, check out the Bracket Matrix to see how this bracket stacks up to the rest of the bracketology world.

Championship Week Monday Bracket Update

We have made it to Championship Week! The regular season is in the books and we are less than one week away from Selection Sunday. Tickets will be, and have already been, punched. Five teams are officially dancing. Three teams are going for the first time in school history. They are Ohio Valley champion SIUE (Southern Illinois University Edwardsville), Big South champion High Point and Summit League champion Omaha.

Drake (Missouri Valley) and Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun) are also heading to the tournament.

As we begin Championship Week, the top line remains the same, though the gap between Auburn and Duke has closed a bit after Auburn dropped their last two games. That said, it took a buzzer-beater floater from Mark Sears to give Alabama the win.

That win moved Alabama to No. 5 on the seed list, behind Florida. No. 6 Tennessee and No. 7 Michigan State also still have a chance to get to the top line.

At the end of the 2-seed line, here's the Johnnies! (Insert Ed McMahon's voice here.) Rick Pitino's crew claimed the Big East title and that should give them some weight if it comes down to them and Texas Tech for the spot.

As far as the bubble goes, since our last update, Xavier is in and Nebraska is out. Xavier has kept the ship afloat while Texas and North Carolina have failed to take advantage. The Tar Heels really needed that win over Duke. But the biggest loser was the Cornhuskers.

Not only did Nebraska lose to an Iowa team that didn't have a single Quad 1 win (now 1-14), they lost their spot in the Big Ten tournament. 15 teams are heading to Indianapolis for the Big Ten tournament. Nebraska will not be one of those teams. Ironically, Iowa ended up as the last team in with that win Sunday.

Nebraska goes into the clubhouse at 17-14 and with computer numbers all outside the top 50, some outside the top 60. They are 5-10 against Quad 1, 4-2 against Quad 2 and 2-2 against Quad 3 (home losses to Rutgers and Minnesota, both inside the NET top 100). That's 11-14 against the top three quadrants, which may leave a bad taste in the committee's mouth. Nebraska is likely NIT bound.

Another team that has played their way into conversation, and could very well be a bid thief, is Colorado State. The Rams completed a season sweep of Boise State and will be the No. 2 seed in the Mountain West tournament. They also have home wins over Utah State and San Diego State. 

Two bids will be handed out today. Troy and Arkansas State will battle for the Sun Belt title while Wofford and Furman will decide who represents the Southern Conference in the dance.

We also have semifinal action in the Horizon, Coastal and West Coast tournaments, plus quarterfinal action in the Southland and Big Sky tournaments.

Here is the latest bracket update.

Last Four Byes: Georgia, Arkansas, West Virginia, San Diego State
Last Four In: Indiana, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Xavier
First Four Out: North Carolina, Texas, Boise State, Colorado State
Next Four Out: SMU, Nebraska, San Francisco, UC Irvine

Conference Breakdown

SEC - 13
Big Ten - 10
Big 12 - 8
Big East - 5
ACC - 3
Mountain West - 3
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 24

As always, check out the Bracket Matrix to see how this bracket stacks up to the rest of the bracketology world.

Florida moves up to top line entering season's final weekend

As we discussed earlier in the week, the race for the final No. 1 seed is tight. Alabama entered Wednesday's action as our final team on the top line, but ever so slightly ahead of Tennessee and Florida. 

After a big win in Tuscaloosa for the Gators and Tennessee falling at Ole Miss, the Gators enter the final weekend of the regular season as the last No. 1 seed, headlining the West region. Tennessee, Alabama and even Michigan State all have a chance to overtake the Gators.

Auburn and Duke are locks for a No. 1 seed and Houston is within striking distance of being in the same category after cruising to the Big 12 regular season title. Florida finishing second in the SEC could carry some weight on Selection Sunday.

On the other side of the bracket, Oklahoma scored a huge victory over Missouri and may have given themselves some breathing room, given how this bubble is shaping up. A huge bubble showdown against Texas awaits on Saturday. A loss for the Longhorns will be a huge blow to their tournament hopes.

Here's the full bracket entering the weekend.

Note: BYU (true No. 8 seed) was moved up two seed lines to adhere to their rule of no athletic events on Sundays. Oregon (true No. 6) and UCLA (true No. 7) were moved down one line each in corresponding moves.

Last Four Byes: West Virginia, Georgia, San Diego State, Arkansas
Last Four In: Oklahoma, Ohio State, Indiana, Nebraska
First Four Out: Texas, North Carolina, Xavier, Boise State
Next Four Out: SMU, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, George Mason

Conference Breakdown

SEC - 13
Big Ten - 11
Big 12 - 8
Big East - 4
ACC - 3
Mountain West - 3
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 24

As always, check out the Bracket Matrix to see how this bracket stacks up to the rest of the bracketology world.

Ugly bubble as season enters final week

Conference tournaments are underway and the rest of the regular season is entering its final days. Selection Sunday is almost here and the selection committee will have quite the task on their hands. This is one of the roughest bubbles we've seen in quite some time. This is becoming a very top-heavy bracket, even as far down as the top eight seed lines. After that, it's anyone's guess.

At the top of the bracket, even with the loss Tuesday to Texas A&M, Auburn remains the overall No. 1 seed. The Tigers have a staggering 15 Quad 1 wins. The only other team with at least ten is Michigan State. Auburn is also the only team with 20+ wins between Quads 1 and 2 combined.

Duke and Houston should feel pretty comfortable as well on the top line. Duke is now No. 1 in BPI, KenPom and Torvik. Houston is top three in all three. The Blue Devils and Cougars are also top three, along with Auburn, in Strength of Record. Houston also boasts a 9-0 road record.

The race for the final No. 1 seed is looking like a three-horse SEC race between Alabama, Tennessee and Florida. The Corral is giving the Tide the slight edge over the Vols. Yes, Tennessee has a head-to-head win over Alabama, but Alabama has the better ranks in the resume categories [KPI, Strength of Record (SOR) and Wins Above Bubble (WAB)]. Alabama has eight Quad 1A wins to Tennessee's six and 17 Quad 1/2 wins to the Vols' 14. Florida has the road win over No. 1 Auburn. This can, and will, change. Alabama hosts Florida and Tennessee visits Ole Miss Wednesday. Saturday's regular-season finale sees Alabama at Auburn, South Carolina at Tennessee and Ole Miss at Florida.

Now for that bubble. This is quite the collection of resumes at the cut line. You can make a case for or against any team here. Entering Wednesday, the last four in feature plenty of Big Ten teams. Ohio State, Oklahoma, Indiana and Nebraska are currently projected for Dayton. The first four out are Texas, North Carolina, Xavier and Boise State. SMU, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, George Mason and Villanova are also hanging around.

The Buckeyes, even at 17-13, are helped by having top-40 numbers in BPI, KenPom and Torvik. A lot of the bubble teams are very close in SOR and WAB.

North Carolina and SMU really need to do work in the ACC Tournament. The Tar Heels can pull a big rabbit out of their hat if they can beat Duke Saturday. SMU has zero Quad 1 wins. Both teams may need to win multiple games, and have their be against quality opponents.

Last Four Byes: West Virginia, Georgia, San Diego State, Arkansas
Last Four In: Ohio State, Oklahoma, Indiana, Nebraska
First Four Out: Texas, North Carolina, Xavier, Boise State
Next Four Out: SMU, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, George Mason

Conference Breakdown

SEC - 13
Big Ten - 11
Big 12 - 8
Big East - 4
ACC - 3
Mountain West - 3
West Coast - 2
One-bid leagues - 24

As always, check out the Bracket Matrix to see how this bracket stacks up to the rest of the bracketology world.

Final 2024 bracket

This was a bit of a whirlwind last few months for me personally, so I really didn't get to do much bracket work. But I wasn't going to let the year go by without actually posting a bracket before the Selection Show, so here it is. Such an interesting bubble this year and actually plenty of good teams will be left out tonight. It also didn't help that North Carolina State and Oregon both stole bids on Saturday night. In fact, with how the bubble shrank, we may see First Four games for a 10 seed.

With that, I went with Seton Hall as the last team in. The Pirates have a win over UConn and with the Huskies garnering the overall No. 1 seed, that may be just enough of a push for Seton Hall to get in. It left teams like Oklahoma, Virginia and Indiana State out. I would personally love to see the Sycamores get in but the crowd got too tight for their liking. 

Here is my bracket and remember to check out Bracket Matrix to see how I stacked up.

Final 2023 Bracket

It's been another very interesting year in college hoops and while I didn't get a chance to build as many brackets as in other years, I'm glad I was able to get a few in and, most importantly, the final one here on Selection Sunday.

The last few spots in the field were very difficult to decide on, but in the end, the nods went to North Carolina State and Arizona State over teams such as Clemson, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma State.

The Wolfpack have no bad losses, which is usually key for a tournament resume. They did only end up with one Quad 1 victory but it's one that looks much better today as it was a home win over the ACC tournament champions Duke. A home win over the No. 1 seed Miami also helps their cause as does a key bubble win over Vanderbilt. Who would have thought that win could potentially pay huge dividends for the Pack?

As for Arizona State, having a winning record on the road as a bubble team should be a good look in the committee's eyes and the Sun Devils went 7-6 in true road games and 5-1 on neutral floors, including a key win over USC in the Pac-12 quarterfinals and what is now an important non-conference win over Creighton, one of the better non-conference wins among the bubble teams.

Clemson and Vanderbilt made strong pushes late, but Clemson was a very weak non-conference schedule, though they did beat Penn State which became a better win. If they get left out, they can point to their three losses to sub-200 NET teams including Louisville which was sub-300.

As for Vanderbilt. they also had some rough losses to overcome, though not nearly as bad as Clemson. Their best non-conference win was Pittsburgh, but they did lose to NC State and lost in conference play to LSU, who was the punching bag of the SEC this season.

And with Oklahoma State, it's just tough to see them getting in at 18-15, even with having six Quad 1 wins. But they did lose 12 such games, so it's not like they didn't have opportunities for more. In fact, of their 12 Q1 losses, only four were by single digits. And their best non-conference win? Sam Houston State. No disrespect to the Bearkats, but they're not exactly a team the committee will praise the Cowboys for winning against.

Now, would it be surprising for any of those three to get in? No. That's why they're bubble teams. You can pick apart all of these resumes and make a case for or against. That's why they're bubble teams. In the end, the Wolfpack and Sun Devils sneak through and into Dayton for the First Four.

So with all that being said, let's take a look at the final bracket for this season and hope it does well in the Bracket Matrix.

Last Four Byes: USC, Mississippi State, Utah State, Providence

Last Four In: Pittsburgh, Rutgers, North Carolina State, Arizona State

First Four Out: Clemson, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma State, Nevada

Next Four Out: North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon

Conference Breakdown:

Big Ten - 9

SEC - 8

Big 12 - 7

ACC - 5

Big East - 5

Pac-12 - 4

Mountain West - 3

American - 2

West Coast - 2

One-bid leagues - 23

Championship Saturday update

 As we wade through the busy slate of championship games Saturday, here's an updated look at the NCAA Tournament projections.

Last Four Byes: Rutgers, Mississippi State, Utah State, Providence

Last Four In: Penn State, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Clemson

First Four Out: North Carolina State, Oklahoma State, Nevada, Arizona State

Championship Week Tuesday bracket

 The final weekend of the regular season brought us our first official tickets punched to the NCAA Tournament as well as a change at the top of the bracket. UCLA now slides in as the last No. 1 seed with Purdue as the top No. 2 seed. This week will be the final push for those teams — and perhaps a team like Texas — to make their final case to join Kansas, Alabama and Houston on the top line come Sunday.

Seven teams are officially in the field:

Fairleigh Dickinson (Northeast)

SE Missouri State (Ohio Valley)

UNC Asheville (Big South)

Drake (Missouri Valley)

Kennesaw State (Atlantic Sun)

Furman (Southern)

Louisiana (Sun Belt)

Four more teams will join the list tonight. Here are Tuesday's matchups to determine those spots

West Coast: Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s 

Horizon League: Northern Kentucky vs. Cleveland State

Colonial: UNC Wilmington vs. Charleston

Summit: North Dakota State vs. Oral Roberts

There’s one more championship game Tuesday as Fairleigh Dickinson battles Merrimack for the Northeast title. But with Merrimack ineligible for the NCAA Tournament, FDU is dancing win or lose.

So with that, here’s your updated bracket. And remember to check out the Bracket Matrix. 

Finally, the first bracket of 2023

It almost didn't happen. I almost didn't even get to make a bracket this season. But we finally got around to it. We have our first bracket for 2023, just in time for the start of conference tournament action on Monday.

Let's just jump right into it and take a look at the bracket. And be sure to check out all the other great bracket work over at Bracket Matrix.

Last Four Byes: Boise State, Nevada, Memphis, USC

Last Four In: Wisconsin, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State

First Four Out: North Carolina, Arizona State, Penn State, Clemson

Next Four Out: Utah State, Charleston, Michigan, Texas Tech

Final Bracket

 What a wild ride it was once again. And how fitting was it that we had a bid-stealer, as Richmond upset Davidson for the Atlantic 10's automatic bid to the tournament. That shrunk the bubble, as we still project Davidson to be in the dance as a No. 11 seed. It wouldn't be a shock to see Davidson sent to Dayton.

Virginia Tech claimed the ACC's automatic bid, but they were likely in the field even with a loss. And despite the loss to Tennessee in the SEC Championship, Texas A&M is the last team in after their run to the SEC final, which included wins over Auburn and Arkansas.

So with that, here is my final bracket.

Last Four Byes: San Francisco, Miami (FL), Wyoming, Davidson
Last Four In: Rutgers, Indiana, Michigan, Texas A&M
First Four Out: Xavier, SMU, Oklahoma, Notre Dame

Conference Breakdown:

Big Ten - 9

SEC - 7

Big 12 - 6

Big East - 6

ACC - 4

Mountain West - 4

Pac-12 - 3

West Coast - 3

American Athletic - 2

Atlantic 10 - 2

One-bid leagues - 22

Championship Week Saturday: Indiana, Virginia Tech make their moves, Hokies can steal a bid Saturday

 

Notes: Indiana (from 11 to 10) and San Francisco (10 to 11) swapped seed lines, as did Michigan/Xavier (11 to 12) and Virginia Tech/Oklahoma (12 to 11) to adhere to bracketing rules.

Last Four Byes: Miami (FL), Wyoming, Rutgers, Indiana
Last Four In: Michigan, Xavier, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma
First Four Out: Wake Forest, Notre Dame, SMU, Dayton
Next Four Out: VCU, North Texas, BYU, Texas A&M

Conference Breakdown:

Big Ten - 9

Big 12 - 7

Big East - 7

SEC - 6

ACC - 4

Mountain West - 4

Pac-12 - 3

West Coast - 3

American Athletic - 2

One-bid leagues - 23

Since we last met, Indiana became a huge winner on the bubble. Wins over Michigan and Illinois in the Big Ten tournament have likely saved Indiana's season. In fact, we currently have them just above the cut line as the team with a bye and avoiding Dayton. Even if they lose today against Iowa, the Hoosiers are probably dancing.

Another bubble winner this week is Virginia Tech. The Hokies have advanced to today's ACC tournament final against Duke and have knocked off Notre Dame and North Carolina in the process. Those wins, plus strong computer numbers (up to No. 30 in NET) have put the Hokies in the field today among the Last Four In group. They can take themselves out of that group completely with a win today over Duke, as that would give them the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament and they would not have to worry about playing in Dayton.

Despite the loss in the Big 12 semifinals against Texas Tech, Oklahoma sneaks in as the last team in the field, beating out Wake Forest, Notre Dame and SMU. Despite just an 18-15 record, the Sooners have four Quad 1 wins, three of them against the top 20 of the NET (Baylor, Texas Tech, Arkansas). The committee tends to lean towards strong wins. It's also not unprecedented for a 15-loss team to earn at at-large bid. In 2017, Vanderbilt earned a No. 9 seed at 19-15. The Sooners can still get bumped out, and you can make a case for or against any of these teams. For the Sooners, they are top-40 in all the main metric rankings except for KPI (No. 52). They also have ten wins against Quads 1 and 2.

Still time for things to change and teams like SMU and Dayton are still on the prowl to potentially take away a bid and shrink the bubble.

Saturday is a very busy day, as 15 tournament tickets will officially be punched today and the remaining five championship matchups for tomorrow will be set. Here's a rundown of all the action, including the last of the conferences to tip off their tournament in the Ivy League and the traditional 11:00 a.m. tip for the America East championship.

America East Championship

No. 2 UMBC at No. 1 Vermont, 11:00 a.m., ESPN2

ACC Championship (in Brooklyn, NY)

No. 7 Virginia Tech vs. No. 1 Duke, 8:30, ESPN

Big 12 Championship (in Kansas City, MO)

No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Kansas, 6:00, ESPN

Big East Championship (in New York, NY)

No. 4 Creighton vs. No. 2 Villanova, 6:30, Fox

Big Sky Championship (in Boise, ID)

No. 3 Northern Colorado vs. No. 1 Montana State, 8:00, ESPNU

Big West Championship (in Henderson, NV)

No. 2 Cal State Fullerton vs. No. 1 Long Beach State, 11:30, ESPN2

Conference USA Championship (in Frisco, TX)

No. W3 Louisiana Tech vs. No. W2 UAB, 8:30, CBSSN

Metro Atlantic Championship (in Atlantic City, NJ)

No. 4 Monmouth vs. No. 2 Saint Peter's, 4:00, ESPNU

MAC Championship (in Cleveland, OH)

No. 4 Akron vs. No. 2 Kent State, 7:30, ESPN2

MEAC Championship (in Norfolk, VA)

No. 7 Coppin State vs. No. 1 Norfolk State, 1:00, ESPN2

Mountain West Championship (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 3 San Diego State vs. No. 1 Boise State, 6:00, CBS

Pac-12 Championship (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 1 Arizona, 9:00, Fox

Southland Championship (in Katy, TX)

No. 4 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. No. 2 Southeastern Louisiana, 9:30, ESPN2

SWAC Championship (in Birmingham, AL)

No. 2 Texas Southern vs. No. 1 Alcorn State, 6:00, ESPNU

WAC Championship (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 6 Abilene Christian vs. No. 1 New Mexico State, 10:00, ESPNU

American Athletic Semifinals (in Fort Worth, TX)

No. 5 Tulane vs. No. 1 Houston, 3:00, ESPN2

No. 3 Memphis vs. No. 2 SMU, 5:30, ESPN2

Atlantic 10 Semifinals (in Washington, D.C.)

No. 5 Saint Louis vs. No. 1 Davidson, 1:00, CBSSN

No. 6 Richmond vs. No. 2 Dayton, 3:30, CBSSN

Big Ten Semifinals (in Indianapolis, IN)

No. 9 Indiana vs. No. 5 Iowa, 1:00, CBS

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Purdue, 3:30, CBS

Ivy League Semifinals (in Cambridge, MA)

No. 4 Cornell vs. No. 1 Princeton, 11:00 a.m., ESPNU

No. 3 Penn vs. No. 2 Yale, 2:00, ESPNU

SEC Semifinals (in Tampa, FL)

No. 8 Texas A&M vs. No. 4 Arkansas, 1:00, ESPN

No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Tennessee, 3:30, ESPN

Championship Week Thursday: Xavier, Wake Forest begin long wait after early tournament exits

Sure enough, Wednesday was a very interesting day in college basketball and on the bubble. Specifically, two bubble teams suffered bad losses and early conference tournament exits that will now leave them sweating bullets until Sunday.

We'll start in the ACC. Wake Forest, the No. 5 seed in the ACC tournament, was taken down in overtime by Boston College, the No. 13 seed. That's a late Quad 3 loss for the Deacons, giving them two such losses. They also lost at Louisville back on December 29. This also means their poor non-conference schedule will come more into focus. Their hope is that their wins over North Carolina and Notre Dame will be enough to put them over the top. For now, Wake is still in. But there are plenty of teams and plenty of time that Wake can easily slide out with the right results.

Similar story for Xavier, who completely crumbled down the stretch. This was a team that started 11-1 and even 16-5. They'll enter Selection Sunday 18-13 and one-and-done in the Big East after poor free-throw shooting doomed them in their overtime loss to Butler in the Big East first round. That's two Quad 3 losses now for X, as they also have a home loss to DePaul on their resume. However, they have some of the stronger wins among bubble teams, including Ohio State, Connecticut and a sweep of Creighton. Will those wins outweigh the losses and overcome the late-season slide? Xavier is still in for now, but like Wake, it's a wait-and-see game as we enter the weekend.

We're now officially at 12 teams in the NCAA Tournament as Colgate wrapped up a dominating Patriot League season with a 74-58 win over Navy in the final. It's the second straight Patriot League title and third in the last four years for Colgate, who is projected as a No. 14 seed in the NCAAs. Remember, this was a team that has eventual Elite Eight participant Arkansas on the ropes in the first round last season. This team is dangerous.

Also, a big upset in the Metro Atlantic. Rick Pitino and the Iona Gaels will not be dancing. They were upset by No. 9 seed Rider Wednesday, meaning that for the first time since 2015 (Manhattan), someone other than Iona will represent the MAAC in the dance. For now, the projected team is No. 2 seed Saint Peter's, who defeated Fairfield in the quarters.

Here's the full list of automatic qualifiers so far, followed by the updated bracket. This list will stay until Saturday, when 15 tickets will be punched.

• Bryant - Northeast
• Colgate - Patriot
• Chattanooga - Southern
• Delaware - Colonial
• Georgia State - Sun Belt
• Gonzaga - West Coast
• Jacksonville State - Atlantic Sun
• Longwood - Big South
• Loyola Chicago - Missouri Valley
• Murray State - Ohio Valley
• South Dakota State - Summit
• Wright State - Horizon League

Last Four Byes: Creighton, Michigan, San Francisco, Wyoming

Last Four In: Rutgers, Xavier, Wake Forest, SMU

First Four Out: BYU, Indiana, Dayton, VCU

Next Four Out: Florida, Virginia Tech, Oregon, St. Bonaventure

Also on the board: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Virginia

Conference Breakdown:

Big Ten - 8

Big East - 7

Big 12 - 6

SEC - 6

ACC - 5

Mountain West - 4

American Athletic - 3

Pac-12 - 3

West Coast - 3

One-bid leagues - 23

Here's a look now at the full slate of games today, including the last of the tournaments to kick off in the American Athletic and the MAC.

American Athletic First Round (in Fort Worth, TX)

No. 9 East Carolina vs. No. 8 Cincinnati, 1:00, ESPNU

No. 10 Tulsa vs. No. 7 Wichita State, 3:30, ESPNU

No. 11 South Florida vs. No. 6 UCF, 7:00, ESPNU

Atlantic 10 Second Round (in Washington, D.C.)

No. 9 George Mason vs. No. 8 Fordham, 12:00, USA

No. 12 La Salle vs. No. 5 Saint Louis, 2:30, USA

No. 10 UMass vs. No. 7 George Washington, 6:00, USA

No. 11 Rhode Island vs. No. 6 Richmond, 8:30, USA

ACC Quarterfinals (in Brooklyn, NY)

No. 9 Syracuse vs. No. 1 Duke, 12:00, ESPN

No. 13 Boston College vs. No. 4 Miami (FL), 2:30, ESPN2

No. 7 Virginia Tech vs. No. 2 Notre Dame, 7:00, ESPN2

No. 6 Virginia vs. No. 3 North Carolina, 9:30, ESPN

Big 12 Quarterfinals (in Kansas City, MO)

No. 5 TCU vs. No. 4 Texas, 12:30, ESPN2

No. 9 West Virginia vs. No. 1 Kansas, 3:00, ESPN

No. 7 Oklahoma vs. No. 2 Baylor, 7:00, ESPN

No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 3 Texas Tech, 9:30, ESPN2

Big East Quarterfinals (in New York, NY)

No. 9 Butler vs. No. 1 Providence, 12:00, FS1

No. 5 Marquette vs. No. 4 Creighton, 2:30, FS1

No. 7 St. John's vs. No. 2 Villanova, 7:00, FS1

No. 6 Seton Hall vs. No. 3 UConn, 9:30, FS1

Big Sky Quarterfinals (in Boise, ID)

No. 8 Sacramento State vs. No. 1 Montana State, 2:00, ESPN+

No. 5 Montana vs. No. 4 Weber State, 4:30, ESPN+

No. 7 Portland State vs. No. 2 Southern Utah, 7:30, ESPN+

No. 6 Eastern Washington vs. No. 3 Northern Colorado, 10:00, ESPN+

Big Ten Second Round (in Indianapolis, IN)

No. 9 Indiana vs. No. 8 Michigan, 11:30, BTN

No. 12 Northwestern vs. No. 5 Iowa, 2:00, BTN

No. 10 Maryland vs. No. 7 Michigan State, 6:30, BTN

No. 11 Penn State vs. No. 6 Ohio State, 9:00, BTN

Big West Quarterfinals (in Henderson, NV)

No. 9 Cal State Bakersfield vs. No. 1 Long Beach State, 3:00, ESPN+

No. 5 UC Santa Barbara vs. No. 4 UC Irvine, 5:30, ESPN+

No. 7 UC Davis vs. No. 2 Cal State Fullerton, 9:00, ESPN+

No. 6 UC Riverside vs. No. 3 Hawaii, 11:30, ESPN+

Conference USA Quarterfinals (in Frisco, TX)

No. W5 Rice vs. No. W1 North Texas, 6:30, Stadium

No. W3 Louisiana Tech vs. No. E2 Western Kentucky, 7:00, Stadium

No. W4 UTEP vs. No. E1 Middle Tennessee, 9:00, Stadium

No. E3 Florida Atlantic vs. No. W2 UAB, 9:30, Stadium

MAAC Quarterfinals (in Atlantic City, NJ)

No. 11 Quinnipiac vs. No. 3 Siena, 7:00, ESPN+

No. 5 Niagara vs. No. 4 Monmouth, 9:30, ESPN+

MAC Quarterfinals (in Cleveland, OH)

No. 8 Central Michigan vs. No. 1 Toledo, 11:00, ESPN+

No. 5 Buffalo vs. No. 4 Akron, 1:30, ESPN+

No. 7 Miami (OH) vs. No. 2 Kent State, 4:00, ESPN+

No. 6 Ball State vs. No. 3 Ohio, 6:30, ESPN+

MEAC Quarterfinals (in Norfolk, VA)

No. 5 South Carolina State vs. No. 4 Morgan State, 6:00, ESPN+

No. 6 Maryland-Eastern Shore vs. No. 3 North Carolina Central. 8:30, ESPN+

Mountain West Quarterfinals (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 8 Nevada vs. No. 1 Boise State, 3:00, CBSSN

No. 5 UNLV vs. No. 4 Wyoming, 5:30, CBSSN

No. 7 Utah State vs. No. 2 Colorado State, 9:00, CBSSN

No. 6 Fresno State vs. No. 3 San Diego State, 11:30, CBSSN

Pac-12 Quarterfinals (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 9 Stanford vs. No. 1 Arizona, 3:00, Pac-12 Networks

No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Colorado, 5:30, Pac-12 Networks

No. 7 Washington State vs. No. 2 UCLA, 9:00, Pac-12 Networks

No. 6 Washington vs. No. 3 USC, 11:30, FS1

SEC Second Round (in Tampa, FL)

No. 9 Florida vs. No. 8 Texas A&M, 12:00, SEC Network

No. 12 Missouri vs. No. 5 LSU, 2:30, SECN

No. 10 Mississippi State vs. No. 7 South Carolina, 6:00, SECN

No. 11 Vanderbilt vs. No. 6 Alabama, 8:30, SECN

Southland Quarterfinals (in Katy, TX)

No. 5 Houston Baptist vs. No. 4 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, 6:00, ESPN+

No. 7 McNeese State vs. No. 3 New Orleans, 8:30, ESPN+

SWAC Quarterfinals (in Birmingham, AL)

No. 6 Grambling State vs. No. 3 Southern, 3:00, ESPN+

No. 5 Alabama A&M vs. No. 4 Florida A&M, 9:30, ESPN+

WAC Quarterfinals (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 5 Sam Houston State vs. No. 4 Grand Canyon, 9:00, ESPN+

No. 6 Abilene Christian vs. No. 3 Stephen F. Austin, 11:30, ESPN+

Championship Week Wednesday

Tuesday was quite an eventful day in college basketball. Six teams punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament, including a team that didn't even play.

In just their second year in Division I, Bellarmine was the Atlantic Sun championship, defeating Jacksonville at home, 77-72. But because Bellarmine is only in Year 2 of their four-year transition to Division I, they are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. Per the Atlantic Sun's rules, the regular-season champion gets the automatic bid to the tournament. That means Jacksonville State will represent the conference in the tournament. The Gamecocks sit as a No. 16 seed in our projections.

Unfortunately, there were some lowlights on Tuesday as well, specifically the brawl that broke out during the Northeast Conference championship between Wagner and Bryant. Students started getting into it and even a Wagner player tried to get into the stands. The game was delayed for about 30 minutes with only about four minutes left in the game. In the end, Bryant cruised to a 70-43 win and claimed their first-ever appearance in the NCAA Tournament. Bryant is likely headed to Dayton for the First Four.

We're now up to 11 teams officially in the NCAA Tournament.

• Bryant - Northeast
• Chattanooga - Southern
• Delaware - Colonial
• Georgia State - Sun Belt
• Gonzaga - West Coast
• Jacksonville State - Atlantic Sun
• Longwood - Big South
• Loyola Chicago - Missouri Valley
• Murray State - Ohio Valley
• South Dakota State - Summit
• Wright State - Horizon League

Not too many changes in the projected bracket, but that will start to change as more of the power conferences begin their tournaments today. Let's check out today's bracket and then run down today's schedule of games, including one championship game.

Last Four Byes: Creighton, Michigan, San Francisco, Wyoming

Last Four In: Xavier, Wake Forest, Rutgers, SMU

First Four Out: BYU, Indiana, Dayton, VCU

Next Four Out: Florida, Virginia Tech, Oregon, St. Bonaventure

Also on the board: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Virginia

Conference Breakdown:

Big Ten - 8

Big East - 7

Big 12 - 6

SEC - 6

ACC - 5

Mountain West - 4

American Athletic - 3

Pac-12 - 3

West Coast - 3

One-bid leagues - 23

Patriot League Championship

No. 2 Navy at No. 1 Colgate, 7:30, CBS Sports Network

America East Semifinals 

No. 6 Binghamton at No. 1 Vermont, 7:00, ESPN+
No. 4 Hartford at No. 2 UMBC, 7:00, ESPN+

Atlantic 10 First Round (in Washington, D.C.)

No. 13 Saint Joseph's vs. No. 12 La Salle, 1:00, ESPN+
No. 14 Duquesne vs. No. 11 Rhode Island, 3:30, ESPN+

ACC Second Round (in Brooklyn, NY)

No. 9 Syracuse vs. No. 8 Florida State, 12:00
No. 13 Boston College vs. No. 5 Wake Forest, 2:30
No. 10 Clemson vs. No. 7 Virginia Tech, 7:00
No. 11 Louisville vs. No. 6 Virginia, 9:30

Big 12 First Round (in Kansas City, MO)

No. 9 West Virginia vs. No. 8 Kansas State, 7:00

Big East First Round (in New York, NY)

No. 9 Butler vs. No. 8 Xavier, 4:30, FS1
No. 10 DePaul vs. No. 7 St. John's, 7:00, FS1
No. 11 Georgetown vs. No. 6 Seton Hall, 9:30, FS1

Big Sky First Round (in Boise, ID)

No. 9 Idaho vs. No. 8 Sacramento State, 11:30 a.m., ESPN+
No. 10 Idaho State vs. No. 7 Portland State, 2:00, ESPN+
No. 11 Northern Arizona vs. No. 6 Eastern Washington, 4:30, ESPN+

Big Ten First Round (in Indianapolis, IN)

No. 13 Nebraska vs. No. 12 Northwestern, 6:00, BTN
No. 14 Minnesota vs. No. 11 Penn State, 8:30, BTN

Conference USA Second Round (in Frisco, TX)

No. W5 Rice vs. No. E4 Charlotte, 6:30, ESPN+
No. E7 Marshall vs. No. W3 Louisiana Tech, 7:00, ESPN+
No. E5 Old Dominion vs. No. W4 UTEP, 9:00, ESPN+
No. W7 Southern Mississippi vs. No. E3 Florida Atlantic, 9:30, ESPN+

MAAC Second Round (in Atlantic City, NJ)

No. 9 Rider vs. No. 1 Iona, 7:00, ESPN+
No. 7 Fairfield vs. No. 2 Saint Peter's, 9:30, ESPN+

MEAC Quarterfinals (in Norfolk, VA)

No. 8 Delaware State vs. No. 1 Norfolk State, 6:00, ESPN+
No. 7 Coppin State vs. No. 2 Howard, 8:30, ESPN+

Mountain West First Round (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 9 New Mexico vs. No. 8 Nevada, 2:00, Mountain West Network
No. 10 Air Force vs. No. 7 Utah State, 4:30, MWN
No. 11 San Jose State vs. No. 6 Fresno State, 7:00. MWN

Pac-12 First Round (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 9 Stanford vs. No. 8 Arizona State. 3:00, Pac-12 Network
No. 12 Oregon State vs. No. 5 Oregon, 5:30, Pac-12 Network
No. 10 California vs. No. 7 Washington State, 9:00, Pac-12 Network
No. 11 Utah vs. No. 6 Washington, 11:30, Pac-12 Network

SEC First Round (in Tampa, FL)

No. 13 Ole Miss vs. No. 12 Missouri, 6:00, SECN
No. 14 Georgia vs. No. 11 Vanderbilt, 8:30, SECN

Southland First Round (in Katy, TX)

No. 8 Incarnate Word vs. No. 5 Houston Baptist, 6:00, ESPN+
No. 7 McNeese State vs. No. 6 Northwestern State, 8:30, ESPN+

SWAC Quarterfinals (in Birmingham, AL)

No. 7 Jackson State vs. No. 2 Texas Southern, 3:00, ESPN+
No. 8 Prairie View A&M vs. No. 1 Alcorn State, 9:30, ESPN+

WAC Second Round (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 8 Cal Baptist vs. No. 5 Sam Houston State, 9:00, ESPN+
No. 7 Utah Valley vs. No. 6 Abilene Christian, 11:30, ESPN+

Championship Week Tuesday: Six bids at stake, ACC joins the party

 So much for Monday being a light day in basketball, eh?

The fun and the madness is already starting. David Jean-Baptiste hit a crazy, contested buzzer-beater three in overtime to send Chattanooga to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016. Also on Monday, Georgia State took care of Louisiana to win the Sun Belt and reach their first NCAA Tournament since 2019 and first under head coach Ranier, who is dancing himself for the first time since taking Siena to the tournament in 2002.

Also, near the cutline, San Francisco dropped to an 11-seed, moving Michigan up to a 10, after their drubbing at the hands of No. 1 Gonzaga. The Dons still have strong metrics, including a top-25 NET rating. They should still be in the tournament, but they'll be closer to the cutline and it wouldn't be a shock if they end up in Dayton.

So we're now up to five teams officially in the field:

• Chattanooga - Big South
• Georgia State - Sun Belt
• Longwood - Big South
• Loyola Chicago - Missouri Valley
• Murray State - Ohio Valley

After tonight, that number will be up to 11. We have six championship games. First, let's look at the bracket and then let's rundown all the action today.

Last Four Byes: Creighton, Michigan, San Francisco, Wyoming

Last Four In: Xavier, Wake Forest, Rutgers, SMU

First Four Out: BYU, Indiana, Dayton, VCU

Next Four Out: Florida, Virginia Tech, Oregon, St. Bonaventure

Also on the board: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Virginia

Conference Breakdown:

Big Ten - 8

Big East - 7

Big 12 - 6

SEC - 6

ACC - 5

Mountain West - 4

American Athletic - 3

Pac-12 - 3

West Coast - 3

One-bid leagues - 23

Tuesday's schedule:

Atlantic Sun Championship

No. E2 Jacksonville at No. W2 Bellarmine, 5:00, ESPN

(Note: Bellarmine is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament as they are still transitioning to Division I. If Bellarmine wins, regular-season champion Jacksonville State will receive the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.)

Northeast Conference Championship

No. 2 Wagner at No. 1 Bryant, 7:00, ESPN2

Colonial Championship (Washington, D.C.)

No. 5 Delaware vs. No. 2 UNC Wilmington, 7:00, CBSSN

Horizon League Championship (Indianapolis, IN)

No. 4 Wright State vs. No. 3 Northern Kentucky, 7:00, ESPN

West Coast Championship (Las Vegas, NV)

No. 2 Saint Mary's vs. No. 1 Gonzaga, 9:00, ESPN

Summit League Championship (Sioux Falls, SD)

No. 2 North Dakota State vs. No. 1 South Dakota State, 9:00, ESPN2

ACC First Round (Brooklyn, NY)

No. 13 Boston College vs. No. 12 Pittsburgh. 2:00, ACCN
No. 15 North Carolina State vs. No. 10 Clemson, 4:30, ACCN

No. 14 Georgia Tech vs. No. 11 Louisville, 7:00, ACCN

Big West First Round (Henderson, NV)

No. 9 Cal State Bakersfield vs. No. 8 Cal State Northridge, 9:00, ESPN+

No. 10 Cal Poly vs. No. 7 UC Davis, 11:30, ESPN+

Conference USA First Round (Frisco, TX)

No. E7 Marshall vs. No. E6 Florida International, 7:30, ESPN+

No. W7 Southern Mississippi vs. No. W6 Texas-San Antonio, 8:00, ESPN+

MAAC First Round (Atlantic City, NJ)

No. 9 Rider vs. No. 8 Manhattan. 5:00, ESPN+

No. 10 Canisius vs. No. 7 Fairfield, 7:30, ESPN+

No. 11 Quinnipiac vs. No. 6 Marist, 10:00, ESPN+

WAC First Round (Las Vegas, NV)

No. 9 Texas-Rio Grande Valley vs. No. 8 Cal Baptist, 9:00, ESPN+

No. 10 Chicago State vs. No. 7 Utah Valley, 11:30, ESPN+

Post-Scouting Combine / Start of Championship Week bracket

Last Four Byes: Creighton, San Francisco, Michigan, Wyoming

Last Four In: Xavier, Wake Forest, Rutgers, SMU

First Four Out: BYU, Indiana, Dayton, VCU

Next Four Out: Florida, Virginia Tech, Oregon, St. Bonaventure

Fresh off my trip to Indianapolis for the NFL Scouting Combine, I'm quickly turning around and getting back into the bracket game as we are just six days away from Selection Sunday, as crazy as that is to believe. It's Championship Week and the last chance for bubble teams to make their case to get into the tournament. 

Three teams have officially punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament: 

• Longwood (Big South) - 26-6 (15-1)
• Loyola Chicago (Missouri Valley) - 25-7 (13-5)
• Murray State (Ohio Valley) - 30-2 (18-0)

Two more teams will join them tonight. Chattanooga takes on Furman for the Southern Conference championship (7:00, ESPN) and Louisiana, the No. 8 seed, takes on Georgia State for the Sun Belt title (7:00, ESPN2).

Here's the full rundown tonight in what's a fairly quiet night, but still plenty of highlights, including the No. 1 team in the country taking the floor for a West Coast semifinal.

Southern Conference Championship (Asheville, NC)

No. 2 Furman vs. No. 1 Chattanooga, 7:00, ESPN

Sun Belt Championship (Pensacola, FL)

No. 8 Louisiana vs. No. 3 Georgia State, 7:00, ESPN

Colonial Semifinals (Washington, DC)

No. 5 Delaware vs. No. 1 Towson, 6:00, CBSSN
No. 6 College of Charleston vs. No. 2 UNC Wilmington, 8:30, CBSSN

Horizon League Semifinals (Indianapolis, IN)

No. 4 Wright State vs. No. 1 Cleveland State, 7:00, ESPNU

No. 3 Northern Kentucky vs. No. 2 Purdue Fort Wayne, 9:30, ESPNU

Summit League Semifinals (Sioux Falls, SD)

No. 5 South Dakota vs. No. 1 South Dakota State, 7:00, ESPN+

No. 3 Oral Roberts vs. No. 2 North Dakota State, 9:30, ESPN+

West Coast Semifinals (Las Vegas, NV)

No. 4 San Francisco vs. No. 1 Gonzaga, 9:00, ESPN

No. 3 Santa Clara vs. No. 2 Saint Mary's, 11:30, ESPN2

The highlight of tonight, outside of the two championship games, is in Vegas, where San Francisco will try to solidify their spot above the First Four cutline by upsetting No. 1 Gonzaga. The Dons are probably in the field, regardless, but a loss could send them to Dayton to begin the tournament.

In the other semifinal, Saint Mary's looks to get past a sneaky-good Santa Clara team. The Gaels have a chance to potentially get as high as a No. 6 seed in the NCAAs.

San Francisco's win over BYU in the quarterfinals all but assured the West Coast's dreams of getting four bids are over. BYU is the first team out but now cannot help their own cause and have a long wait until Sunday. They did beat San Francisco on the road and Saint Mary's at home. Unfortunately, they don't have much else to hang their hat on, as the Oregon win from November lost a lot of value. Road losses to Utah Valley and Pacific also bring down their resume. It's going to be very interesting to see how the committee deals with the Cougars.

Texas Tech up to a 2-seed on special "Twos"-day bracket

 How fitting is it that 2/22/22 falls on a Tuesday? It just feels like a special day so enjoy it. Just like Texas Tech is enjoying their run under first-year head coach Mark Adams.

The Red Raiders are 21-6 and top ten or 15 in nearly every computer metric, including No. 8 in NET. They have won six of their last seven games, including a six-point win o the road over their former coach, Chris Beard, and Texas, completing the season-sweep of the Longhorns. Tech has now swept both Texas and Baylor and also earned a split with current No. 3 overall seed Kansas. 

As a result, Texas Tech now sits on our projected 2-line in today's bracket, along with Baylor, Kentucky and Purdue. Duke dropped to a No. 3 seed as a result.

Also over the weekend, the Selection Committee unveiled their early top 16. Not surprisingly, Gonzaga was revealed as the overall No. 1 seed, followed by Auburn, Arizona and Kansas. The No. 2 seeds were Baylor, Kentucky, Purdue and Duke. Line three had Villanova, Texas Tech, Tennessee and Illinois and line four had Wisconsin, UCLA, Providence and Texas.

A few changes since that list in today's bracket, including the aforementioned swapping of Texas Tech and Duke. Wisconsin is now a No. 3 seed following their win over Michigan (despite the ugly aftermath), dropping Tennessee to a No. 4 after their 10-point loss at Arkansas on Saturday.

The top line remains the same, but Auburn is now the fourth No. 1 seed, behind Arizona and Kansas. Selection committee chair Tom Burnett (Commissioner of the Southland Conference) said "The margin between Gonzaga and Auburn is razor thin, as is the gap between Auburn and Arizona. The committee felt Gonzaga's wins over Texas Tech, UCLA and Texas, which were all a part of today's top 16, were enough reason to keep Gonzaga as the overall top team."

Burnett also mentioned Auburn's two overtime losses and slightly better road record and strength of schedule as keeping Auburn ahead of Arizona. Well, that gap was lost after Auburn lost over the weekend to Florida, who sits among out first four out today. Still, Auburn is on the top line and winning the SEC regular-season title would go a long way towards keeping them there on Selection Sunday.

On the bubble, Indiana has lost five straight and is now playing in Dayton in today's bracket in the First Four. And you know what tends to happen with bubble teams and weak non-conference schedules. Indiana is banking on their top-40 overall schedule pushing them in, but there is now very little room for error for the Hoosiers. 

Indiana finishes home against Maryland, at Minnesota, home against Rutgers and at Purdue before the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis.

And despite the ugly scene we saw during the postgame handshakes of Wisconsin-Michigan, the Wolverines are still in the field but also in Dayton. Michigan has strong computer numbers, including the No. 4 strength of schedule and three Quad 1 wins. 

We know now they will be without head coach Juwan Howard for the rest of the regular season but he will be back for the Big Ten tournament. Michigan's next four games are all at home and all present tremendous opportunities for Michigan (Rutgers, Illinois, Michigan State, Iowa) before finishing at Ohio State. If Michigan can score a couple wins here with Howard, they'll give themselves a little bit of breathing room heading to Indy in a couple weeks.

Memphis and San Diego State round out the Last Four In group in today's bracket. BYU, SMU, Oklahoma and Florida are the First Four Out.

Let's now take a look at the full bracket. And once again, a major shoutout to some great resources that help me put this bracket together: WarrenNolan.com, Bracketologists.com and HeatCheckCBB.com for their incredible distance chart.

Last Four Byes: San Francisco, North Carolina, Creighton, Rutgers

Last Four In: Michigan, Indiana, Memphis, San Diego State

First Four Out: BYU, SMU, Oklahoma, Florida

Next Four Out: Belmont, Oregon, Dayton, Virginia Tech

Also under consideration: Kansas State, Mississippi State, VCU, St. Bonaventure, Virginia, Saint Louis, UAB

Conference Breakdown

Big Ten - 9

Big East - 7

Big 12 - 6

SEC - 6

ACC - 5

Mountain West - 4

Pac-12 - 3

West Coast - 3

American - 2

One-bid leagues - 23