Friday, February 7, 2020

Finally back for 2020

It's been a good while coming, but we're finally ready with the first bracket of 2020. I wanted to at least the first bracket ready before Saturday's top-16 reveal by the committee, which is always an interesting exercise to see how the committee values the top teams, especially a season like this one, which has featured so many upsets and craziness across the nation.

We have a strong consensus as to who the top four teams in the country are and who would currently headline each region as of today. The top seeds right now are Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego State and Kansas. Among that group, it will be interesting to see where the committee slots San Diego State, the last remaining unbeaten team this season at 23-0. Did they show the committee enough to slot them No. 1 overall, ahead of Baylor, who sits atop the AP Poll?

If not, how will they compare to Gonzaga, who has just one loss against Michigan? This is an interesting case. Both teams have four quadrant one victories, but the committee might look at Gonzaga's top wins as a better group than those of San Diego State. The Bulldogs own wins away from home against Arizona and Oregon, along with a home win over BYU. The Aztecs have beaten Creighton, Iowa and BYU away from home. Gonzaga's win over Oregon, who is in play for a No. 2 seed, may be currently enough to push them to the overall No. 2 seed and the West region, sending the Aztecs to the Midwest.

It's not often we see two teams battling for the West region on the top line and not as the final No. 1 seed. But we've got it this season and it's an exciting race to watch.

As for the other side of the bracket, we've got a pair of West Coast teams (Saint Mary's and BYU) and an Atlantic 10 team (Rhode Island) among the last four byes and an Atlantic 10 team (Richmond) among the last four in, helping out the non-power six. Also in that group is defending national champion Virginia, which shows how crazy this season has been. Even last season's runner-up, Texas Tech, currently sits as a No. 9 seed.

You also get a sense of how weak the ACC has been this season. As of now, only four teams from the league are dancing, but three of them all sit on the two-line. You know it's a down year when North Carolina is sitting near the basement of the league.

The last four in are Texas, Richmond, Purdue and Florida. Purdue is helped by their top-30 NET ranking and the fact the Big Ten has been so strong this season. This bracket features 11 teams from the league, which would tie the all-time record for most teams from a single conference in the NCAA Tournament. The Big East sent 11 of their 16 teams back in 2011, the first year the tournament fielded 68 teams.

Just on the outside are Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State and VCU, with Tulsa, UNC Greensboro, Utah State and Minnesota behind them.

With that in mind, let's take a look at the full bracket heading into the weekend and tomorrow's top-16 reveal.



Last Four Byes: Rhode Island, Saint Mary's, BYU, Virginia

Last Four In: Texas, Richmond, Purdue, Florida

First Four Out: Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, VCU

Next Four Out: Tulsa, UNC Greensboro, Utah State, Minnesota

Also considered: Alabama, Arizona State, Georgetown, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Providence, SMU, Syracuse, Tennessee, Xavier

Conference Breakdown:

Big Ten - 11

Big 12 - 6

Big East - 5

Pac-12 - 5

SEC - 5

ACC - 4

American Athletic - 3

Atlantic 10 - 3

West Coast - 3

One-bid leagues - 23

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