Saturday, March 13, 2021

Bid thieves on the loose as we reach Selection Sunday eve

 We have reached the penultimate day of action before the brackets are revealed tomorrow. And as is always the case entering the day, the bubble is extremely tight and there are potential bid stealers laying in wait to squeeze some of those teams out. 

In today's field, it came down to three teams for the final spot in the field. By a very narrow margin, Colorado State, even with the loss to Utah State in the Mountain West semifinals, just beats out Ole Miss and Saint Louis to sneak in. No bad losses for the Rams and an 8-5 record away from home, including wins at San Diego State and Utah State, help just push the Rams over the finish line. 

Ole Miss has a nice group of wins, but the question is how will the committee weigh their win over Tennessee and their sweep of Missouri versus their losses to Georgia (twice), Mississippi State, Dayton and Vanderbilt. That's five losses to teams that won't be in the field. Saint Louis has four such losses, including being swept by Dayton and an ugly loss at La Salle.

It's extremely close and you can make a case for or against any of the three teams. The Rams are also helped by the fact that, among the three teams in question, they are the only one with a "Wins Above Bobble" number above zero. They have a WAB of 0.3, Saint Louis is at -0.7 and Ole Miss is at -1.2.

Of course, there a chance all this talk is moot, as there are still a number of potential bid stealers on the loose, including two in championship games tonight. Georgetown burst Seton Hall's bubble to advance to the Big East final against Creighton, while Oregon State won the Civil War against Oregon in the Pac-12 semifinals. The Beavers get Colorado in tonight's championship.

Elsewhere, Wichita State survived the upset bid from South Florida, but is on high upset alert against Cincinnati in the American semifinals. Memphis is also still hanging around, but they have to beat Houston today to have a shot.

Other notable changes in the field include Oklahoma State moving up to a No. 2 seed after their exciting win over Baylor in the Big 12 semifinals. They could drop back to a No. 3 if they lose to Texas and Houston wins the American, or even perhaps if Arkansas wins the SEC tournament. But the Cowboys having the second-most Quad 1 wins in the country (ten) is going to pay dividends.

And after some scrubbing and updated data, UCLA has fallen into the Last Four In and Louisville is back up into the Last Four Byes. UCLA is just 5-8 against Quads 1 and 2 and the early exit from the Pac-12 tournament did them no favors. But they're computer numbers are just pushing them into the field and they have a positive WAB (1.0). The Bruins look like they'll make it thanks to some other bubble teams falling off. But don't be surprised to see them playing an extra game to start the tournament.

Here now is your full bracket update, as we only have a couple left! Virginia and Kansas are also in the field until we hear otherwise that they cannot participate in the tournament.


Last Four Byes: Maryland, Michigan State, Drake, Louisville

Last Four In: UCLA, Syracuse, Utah State, Colorado State

First Four Out: Ole Miss, Saint Louis, Boise State, Xavier

Next Three Out: Memphis, St. John's, Belmont

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten - 9

ACC - 8

Big 12 - 7

SEC - 6

Pac-12 - 4

Big East - 3

Mountain West - 3

American Athletic - 2

Atlantic 10 - 2

Missouri Valley - 2

West Coast - 2

One-bid leagues - 20

Here's the rundown of a big day of championship action, as 15 automatic bids will be handed out today.

America East Championship 

No. 6 UMass Lowell at No. 4 Hartford, 11:00 a.m., ESPN2

ACC Championship (Greensboro, NC)

No. 4 Georgia Tech vs. No. 2 Florida State, 8:30, ESPN

Big 12 Championship (Kansas City, MO)

No. 5 Oklahoma State vs. No. 3 Texas, 6:00, ESPN

Big East Championship (New York, NY)

No. 8 Georgetown vs. No. 2 Creighton, 6:30, Fox

Big Sky Championship (Boise, ID)

No. 5 Montana State vs. No. 2 Eastern Washington, 8:00, ESPNU

Big West Championship (Las Vegas, NV)

No. 2 UC Irvine vs. No. 1 UC Santa Barbara, 11:30, ESPN2

Conference USA Championship (Frisco, TX)

West No. 3 North Texas vs. East No. 1 Western Kentucky, 8:30, CBSSN

MAAC Championship (Atlantic City, NJ)

No. 9 Iona vs. No. 7 Fairfield, 4:00, ESPNU

MAC Championship (Cleveland, OH)

No. 5 Ohio vs. No. 2 Buffalo, 7:30, ESPN2

MEAC Championship (Norfolk, VA)

North No. 3 Morgan State vs. North No. 2 Norfolk State, 1:00, ESPN2

Mountain West Championship (Las Vegas, NV)

No. 2 Utah State vs. No. 1 San Diego State, 6:00, CBS

Pac-12 Championship (Las Vegas, NV)

No. 5 Oregon State vs. No. 3 Colorado, 10:30, ESPN

Southland Championship (Katy, TX)

No. 2 Abilene Christian vs. No. 1 Nicholls, 9:30, ESPN2

SWAC Championship (Birmingham, AL)

No. 3 Texas Southern vs. No. 1 Prairie View A&M, 6:00, ESPNU

WAC Championship (Las Vegas, NV)

No. 3 New Mexico State vs. No. 1 Grand Canyon, 10:00, ESPNU

American Athletic Semifinals (Fort Worth, TX)

No. 5 Cincinnati vs. No. 1 Wichita State, 3:00, ESPN2

No. 3 Memphis vs. No. 2 Houston, 5:30, ESPN2

Big Ten Semifinals (Indianapolis, IN)

No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Michigan, 1:00, CBS

No. 3 Iowa vs. No. 2 Illinois, 3:30, CBS

SEC Semifinals (Nashville, TN)

No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Alabama, 1:00, ESPN

No. 3 LSU vs. No. 2 Arkansas, 3:30, ESPN

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