Wednesday, March 3, 2021

Boise State's tumble highlights first bracket of March

 The calendar has turned to March, conference tournaments are underway and we are inching closer to finally having an NCAA tournament again after COVID-19 wiped out the 2020 edition.

One of the notable features of this first post of March is that Boise State, who had ben in the field for the longest time, now finds themselves out of today's projected field after their stunning home loss to Fresno State on Tuesday. The Broncos are now the first team out and are replaced by a fellow Mountain West contender, Colorado State.

The Rams had a lengthy layoff, but were able to shake off the rust with two dominating, and needed, wins over Air Force. Colorado State and Boise State split a two-game set at Colorado State in late January. Colorado State also split at San Diego State and at Utah State.

Boise State's loss also helped save Xavier's spot in the field, despite the Musketeers losing to Georgetown on Tuesday. Xavier's profile is boosted by their 22-point December home win over Oklahoma and have a split with Creighton.

Boise State's claim for the dance is a win at BYU in December, a split at Colorado State and a home sweep of Utah State. But they were swept at Nevada (sub-100 NET) and have the aforementioned home loss to Fresno State, which gives them a Quad 4 loss. Boise let a golden opportunity fly out the window when they were swept last week at San Diego State.

In addition, that was Boise State's last regular-season game. That's a bad taste to leave heading into the conference tournament. The Broncos needs to make some noise in Vegas.

This is going to make the Mountain West tournament extremely fun to watch. San Diego State looks like the only sure bet to dance. We also can't count out Utah State, who swept the Aztecs at home and split with Colorado State. But being swept by Boise State, as well as losses to South Dakota State and UNLV (both Quad 3 losses), put a damper on the Aggies' chances. They have the same number of Quad 3 losses as Quad 1 wins (two).

As it stands now in conference play, San Diego State and Colorado State are tied at 13-3, Utah State is right behind at 13-4 and Boise State sits at 14-6. If a team other than San Diego State can claim the Mountain West regular season title, that will give them some added cushion (but still not a huge margin for error) heading into the Mountain West tournament.

Colorado State hosts New Mexico Wednesday and visits Nevada on Friday. Utah State has Wyoming at home Thursday and UNLV at home Saturday. As mentioned earlier, Boise State is done until the Mountain West tournament.

With all that, let's take a look at the full bracket, which includes a more-solid group at the top line after Illinois' impressive win at Michigan on Tuesday.





Last Four Byes: Connecticut, Georgia Tech, VCU, Drake
Last Four In: Michigan State, Seton Hall, Xavier, Colorado State
First Four Out: Boise State, Ole Miss, Utah State, Stanford
Next Four Out: Duke, Saint Louis, Syracuse, SMU

Bids by Conference

Big Ten - 9

ACC - 7

Big 12 - 7

SEC - 6

Big East - 5

Pac-12 - 4

American Athletic - 2

Atlantic 10 - 2

Missouri Valley - 2

Mountain West - 2

West Coast - 2

One-bid leagues - 20

Three conferences have tournament games today, including the start of the Atlantic 10 tournament.

Atlantic 10 First Round (in Richmond, VA)

No. 13 Saint Joseph's vs. No. 12 La Salle, 11:00 a.m., ESPN+
No. 14 Fordham vs. No. 11 George Washington, 2 p.m., ESPN+

Patriot League First Round

No. 10 Lehigh at No. 7 Boston University, 7:00 p.m., ESPN+

Note: No. 9 Loyola (MD) was scheduled to visit No. 8 Holy Cross, but due to a positive COVID-19 test within the Holy Cross program, Loyola will advance to Saturday's quarterfinal against No. 1 Navy.

Ohio Valley Quarterfinals (in Evansville, IN)

No. 8 SIU-Edwardsville vs. No. 1 Belmont, 8:00 p.m., ESPN+
No. 7 SE Missouri State vs. No. 2 Morehead State, 10:30 p.m., ESPN+


As for the rest of Wednesday's action, the highlight matchup comes in the Big East as Villanova hosts Creighton (8:30 p.m., FS1). The Bluejays took the first meeting in Omaha on February 13.

Syracuse looks for another key win as they host Clemson (5:00 p.m., ACCN), while Seton Hall can inch closer to a better standing in the field if they can knock off Connecticut (6:30 p.m., FS1).

The Pac-12 will try to get some clarity in their title race. UCLA visits Oregon (9:00, ESPN2) and USC hosts Stanford (10:30 p.m., FS1) in what would be a huge win for the Cardinal, who sit among our first four out entering play today.


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