Monday, March 8, 2021

Top line all but locked in, Mountain West set for huge week in Vegas

 Ayo Dosunmu returned to the lineup for Illinois and donned the ever-infamous mask. That didn't stop him from scoring 19 points, grabbing four rebounds and dishing out three assists in 36 minutes in Illinois' huge 73-68 win at Ohio State. That gives the Illini a nation-leading nine wins in Quadrant 1 and all but locks up a top seed in the NCAA Tournament, meaning the entire top line is nearly set. Barring something unforeseen, Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan and Illinois will headline the four regions in Indiana in a week.

Alabama, Iowa and Ohio State certainly all still have a chance, especially Alabama if they sweep the regular-season and conference tournament titles in the SEC. All are likely in good position to be no worse than a No. 2 seed, even Ohio State with their recent struggles.

On the flip side, the Mountain West tournament is set and every bubble team will have a close eye on the action in Vegas. In today's projection, the Mountain West has the last two teams in the field (Boise State and Colorado State) as well as the first team out of the field (Utah State). Boise State's win over BYU and their sweep of Utah State helped push the Broncos win. Colorado State and Utah State split, but no bad losses for the Rams is a plus, while the Aggies have losses to South Dakota State and UNLV. But you can just as easily make a case for Utah State, thanks to their two wins over San Diego State.

The nice thing about the Mountain West bracket is that we are (hopefully) headed for a third meeting with the Rams and Aggies in the semifinals, while Boise State could draw San Diego State in the other semifinal. Both matchups would be extremely huge in the bubble picture. Utah State has won the conference tournament before and taken themselves off the bubble. Can they do it again?

One such bubble team that will be sweating out the week is Drake. They are in the clubhouse after losing the Missouri Valley championship to Loyola-Chicago. Drake will present a 23-4 record and a top-50 NET ranking to the committee with a win over Loyola. They also bring a 5-0 record against Quadrant 2, though all those wins are against Missouri State and Indiana State. Drake sits among the last four in, but it also helped that other bubble teams hurt their case in recent days, teams like Duke, Seton Hall and Saint Louis, among others. It's going to be a long week for Drake.

Along with Loyola-Chicago, Liberty will dance as the Atlantic Sun conference champions. They were going to represent the league, regardless, since their opponent, North Alabama, was ineligible for a tournament as a transitional team. But the Flames are the champions. And in the Ohio Valley, Morehead State knocked off regular-season champion Belmont to punch their first tournament ticket since 2011, when they upset Louisville in the first round as a No. 13 seed. They sit as a No. 14 in today's field.

And then there's Winthrop, who sport the nation's best record outside of Gonzaga. The Eagles enter the tournament at 23-1 and that one loss was by two points. They'll be a trendy upset pick, especially if they do indeed land a No. 12 seed as we are currently projecting.

You'll also notice a few other new teams in the bracket after a number of top seeds were bounced from their conference tournaments, including Wagner in the Northeast (replaced by Bryant) and James Madison in the Colonial (replaced by Northeastern). Southern Utah is also now in as the top seed in the Big Sky and Hartford is the America East AQ after both of the top two seeds were upset in the semifinals. It will be Hartford hosting UMass Lowell on Saturday.

Here is the full bracket update, followed by a rundown of today's tournament action. 


Last Four Byes: VCU, Louisville, Maryland, Michigan State

Last Four In: Drake, Xavier, Boise State, Colorado State

First Four Out: Utah State, Seton Hall, Syracuse, Saint Louis

Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Stanford, St. John's, Memphis

Bids by Conference:

Big Ten - 9

ACC - 7

Big 12 - 7

SEC - 6

Big East - 4

Pac-12 - 4

Mountain West - 3

American Athletic - 2

Missouri Valley - 2

West Coast - 2

One-bid leagues - 20

Monday's tournament action includes two championship games in the Southern Conference and in the Sun Belt.

Southern Conference Championship (in Asheville, NC)

No. 7 Mercer vs. No. 1 UNC Greensboro, 7:00, ESPN

Sun Belt Championship (in Pensacola, FL)

East No. 4 Appalachian State vs. East No. 1 Georgia State, 7:00, ESPN2

Colonial Semifinals (in Harrisonburg, VA)

No. 8 Elon vs. No. 4 Hofstra, 6:00, CBSSN

No. 6 Drexel vs. No. 2 Northeastern, 9:30, CBSSN

Horizon League Semifinals (in Indianapolis, IN)

No. 8 Milwaukee vs. No. 1 Cleveland State, 6:30, ESPNU

No. 4 Northern Kentucky vs. No. 3 Oakland, 9:30, ESPN2

MAAC First Round (in Atlantic City, NJ)

No. 11 Rider vs. No. 6 Canisius, 7:00, ESPN3

Summit League Semifinals (in Sioux Falls, SD)

No. 4 Oral Roberts vs. No. 1 South Dakota State, 6:45, ESPN+

No. 3 North Dakota State vs. No. 2 South Dakota, 9:45, ESPN+

West Coast Semifinals (in Las Vegas, NV)

No. 4 Saint Mary's vs. No. 1 Gonzaga, 9:00, ESPN

No. 3 Pepperdine vs. No. 2 BYU, 12:00 midnight, ESPN2

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